for Asset Allocation- Increase Returns, Reduce Risk
SEQUENCE OF RETURNS PLANNING
12/20: EFM- Most of what I include herein is a synopsis of
articles I read on a daily basis. But when it comes to long
term care and caregiving, I usually put the whole thing up so
that certain readers will read what they may rarely see. After
all, we are all going to get old, or you know somebody who is
old, etc., and this might prepare them on many of the
caregiving issues. Further, you cannot do retirement
planning without a recognition of what can happen and the
is Caregiver Stress Syndrome?
stress syndrome is a condition characterized by physical,
mental and emotional exhaustion. It typically results from
a person neglecting their own physical and emotional
health because they are focused on caring for an ill,
injured or disabled loved one.
are a number of factors that can play a role in caregiver
stress syndrome. For some caregivers, the constant demands
of caring for a person who has a serious illness can
result in burnout. For others, the lack of boundaries
between their roles as a caregiver and a spouse, child, or
other loved one can be challenging. Still other caregivers
put unrealistic expectations on themselves, thinking that
they can do it all and refusing to ask for help. This may
often be because they don’t want to be a burden on anyone
else. Other caregivers are simply frustrated by the
overwhelming needs of their loved one, or the financial
and other resources needed to care for someone with a
long-term illness or disability.
stress syndrome is strongly associated with negative
health outcomes. Between 40 to 70% of caregivers suffer
from depression, while many caregivers also have anxiety
as a result of the stress associated with providing care.
Anger and irritability are also common symptoms of
caregiver stress syndrome. The chronic stress may also
lead to high blood pressure, diabetes, and a compromised
Facts about Caregiver Stress Syndrome
stress syndrome has a significant impact on the lives of
those who take care of their loved ones. It can not only
impact the mood of the caregiver, but his or her long-term
health and wellness. These statistics highlight the
magnitude of the problem.
and mental health problems are consistently higher among
caregivers than among their non-caregiving peers. This is
particularly true for caregivers who are charged with
helping someone with cognitive decline. Studies show that
30 to 40% of dementia caregiver suffer from both
depression and emotional stress.
report that they are stressed and frustrated. 16% of
caregivers are emotionally strained, while 26% state that
taking care of their loved one is had on them emotionally.
22% are exhausted when they go to bed at night. This shows
what many people experience firsthand: the challenges of
providing care for a loved one.
has a substantial impact on the caregiver’s physical
health. According to studies:
of caregivers state that their role has caused their
physical health to decline
of caregivers reported chronic conditions, including
heart attacks, heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and
have a 23% higher level of stress hormones and 15% lower
level of antibody responses than
of primary caregivers report that they are under
physical stress from the demands of assisting their
loved one physically
who spend 9 or more hours a week caring for a spouse
increased their risk of heart disease by 100%;
of caregivers report that they had not gone to the
doctor as often as they should have;• 58% of
caregivers state that their eating habits are worse than
before they assumed this role;
between the ages of 66 and 96 have a 63% higher
mortality rate than non-caregivers of the same age.
of caregiver stress symptom may include changes in
appetite, weight or both; feeling blue, hopeless,
irritable, or helpless; withdrawal from friends and
family; changes in sleep patterns; getting sick more
often; feelings of wanting to hurt yourself or the person
for whom you are caring; loss of interest in activities
previously enjoyed; emotional and physical exhaustion; and
irritability. If you find yourself displaying any of these
symptoms, read on to learn how you can deal with caregiver
Caregivers Can Deal with Caregiver Stress Syndrome
you have recognized the signs of caregiver stress
syndrome, the next step is to manage it. Having this
condition isn’t unusual — the key is to make your own
health a priority so that you can continue to provide care
for your loved one.
you are struggling with caregiver stress syndrome, one of
the first things that you can and should do is to take a
break. While you may believe that you can handle it all by
yourself, the reality is that nobody can. Contact local
agencies, family members, friends, or support groups to
set up some respite care. This may look different
depending on your situation: a home health nurse, a
personal care assistant, or an adult day program. You may
even find someone in your area who is also a caretaker,
and is willing to provide care for a few hours in exchange
for you doing the same for him or her. Whatever you work
out, use that time to take care of yourself. Do something
that you enjoy, or simply rest and recharge.
lighten your load by outsourcing what you can. There are a
number of services available for persons with disabilities
and illnesses, such as meal delivery, transportation, and
adult day care. Take advantage of what is available in
your area; many of these services are free or low cost. If
you can afford to do so, consider hiring someone to clean
or do other chores for you. Anything that you can do to
reduce the physical and emotional toll on your shoulders
will help your overall well-being.
you still work, talk to your employer. Many employees are
reluctant to discuss how their caregiving roles might be
impacting their work. However, your company may offer a
number of programs, such as leave (which your employer may
be required to offer under the Family and Medical Leave
Act), flex time, and other opportunities.
focus on taking care of yourself. Schedule appointments
with your own medical professionals. This may include
seeing your primary care doctor, specialists, a therapist
or counselor, or alternative medicine practitioners. If
you are not healthy, you will not be able to care for your
loved one. Make sure that you are eating well, getting
plenty of sleep, and drinking lots of water. Take time to
exercise every day, even if that just means getting
outside for 15 minutes for a quick walk around the
also means taking time for your emotional health. If you
don’t see a therapist, find other ways to release your
feelings about your role as a caretaker. This may be
through a local support group for caretakers, or by
talking to a family member or friend. You might even find
support online. Venting can be incredibly therapeutic, and
can help you get out some of the negativity so that you
can refocus and be ready to step back into your role.
work with your loved one’s team to not only find the best
treatment for him or her, but to ensure that you are also
getting what you need. Doctors and other medical
professionals should be made aware of your needs as the
primary caregiver, and working to support you. This can
help to alleviate some of the stress that you may be
experiencing, and help you find solutions to problems.
stress syndrome does not have to be your reality. While it
can have a negative impact on your life and well-being,
there are ways to recover — and to be a happier, healthier
caregiver for your loved one. By taking time for yourself
and focusing on your own needs, you can be avoid the
perils of caregiver stress syndrome.
12/20:Trump Withdraws U.S. Forces From Syria, Declaring ‘We
Have Won Against ISIS’
The president overruled his military and diplomatic advisers, who warned
against abandoning Kurdish allies and ceding influence
in Syria to Russia and
will cause 10,1000+ Kurds to die as Turkey will attempt
gets traction for whatever additional incursions in
not only crossed the red line by Obama but is now takes all
the sand due to Trump
destabilizes the world much further.
my grandmother was spirited away by dementia and no longer
recognized me, I stopped visiting her in the nursing home.
didn’t understand this at the time but now think that I just
wanted to remember her baking lemon cream pies or waving at me
as she rode around on her lawnmower cropping the lot next to
her Indiana farmhouse.
wish I could get another chance and do things better this
time. Regret is hard to live with.
Ann Kaiser Stearns views the holidays as a precious time of
year to make elderly family members feel they are loved and
included in the festivities.
respond for as long as they live to smiles, to touch, to
music, to kindness, to sitting in the sun, to pumpkin pies,”
Stearns, a professor of
behavioral science, said in an interview.
just need to remember that all of that nourishes an elderly
person to whatever degree they have impairments,” said
Stearns, who also wrote “Redefining
Age: A Caregiver’s Guide to Living Your Best Life.”
encourages people to make an extra effort to connect with a
loved one over the holidays and provides some tips:
patient. Take the extra time to
sit down with your parent, aunt, or uncle and talk to them.
Encourage them to reminisce. “Don’t do something if you don’t
have the time,” Stearns said.
present. If grandma doesn’t
remember you or something that happened in the past, do not
argue with her or ask, “Why don’t you remember?!” She advised
that it’s better to say, “Remember grandma, it’s your
granddaughter from Baltimore.” When an elderly person repeats
or forgets, connect with them where they are now, even if it
means going through the same conversation again.
sweet memories. Stearns said that
her friend’s father, a former minister, has Alzheimer’s but
the friend brings him to church anyway. When Stearns’ parents
were old, they used to sit happily watching the squirrels in
their yard while her father smoked cigars. It’s important to
repeat rituals that are uplifting and have always brought
meaning to their lives.
the elderly small tasks. Even if
the relative with dementia isn’t fully engaged in the
conversation or can no longer roast the turkey, he or she can
do small tasks like setting the table or putting ornaments on
are okay. “If granny says, ‘When
is grandpa coming home,’ you don’t say he’s dead. You say,
‘I’m not sure but probably soon,’ and she’ll forget that.”
is not the time. Siblings
should not huddle in a corner to discuss who and how they will
care for a parent who is developing dementia. “Elderly people
sense when others are talking about them and they’re not
included,” Stearns said. These conversations should have
already taken place and included
the parent. If a conversation among siblings is
necessary now, do it another time.
elderly family members with respect. “They will remember
every kindness in their hearts, whether they remember it in
their minds or not,” Stearns said.
it comes to our money, effective decision-making typically
requires information, concentration and reflection. Not so
long ago, the main scarcity was information—we lacked the
data to make informed financial decisions. But now we are
drowning in data. What we lack, instead, is the ability
to properly process it. The price we pay for that may
be subtle, but it’s hardly insignificant.
asking people to remember a few extra numbers can short-circuit
their self-control, making them much more likely to
choose a slice of chocolate cake instead of a fruit salad.
(EFM- asking me my name can do that)
is that? One likely possibility is that we run out of
mental bandwidth when we try to remember several
numbers and resist immediate gratification at the same time.
As a result, we choose the cake, even if we’re supposed to
be on a diet. More to the point of finance, we end up
spending rather than saving.
very poor and investing in women
people who have yet to overcome extreme poverty are
concentrated in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa—places
where climate change, violent conflict, and instability rob
people of opportunity. These countries also tend to be
places with extraordinarily young populations. Sub-Saharan
Africa’s youth population is projected to go up by 50
percent in the next 30 years.
investments should focus on women and girls
specifically, because healthy, economically empowered women
are some of development’s best allies.
Here’s why. While health is important for everyone,
a woman’s health is also inextricably linked to the health
of the next generation. And while economic empowerment
is important for everyone, the evidence suggests that when
a woman has cash in her hand and decision-making power
over how to spend it, she spends that money on different
things than a man would.
Specifically, she spends more on her children’s
health and education. In a household like hers, “human
capital” isn’t an abstract concept; it’s the best way to
position a child to break the cycle of poverty. For that
reason, investing in women means investing in the people who
invest in everyone else.The women and girls who live
in the world’s poorest places aren’t necessarily waking up
every day thinking about global poverty rates. But they are thinking
actions they can take to make life better for themselves and
their family. If the number of people trapped in poverty
continues to decline, these women will be a big reason why.
term care/home aides
made the decision to let an aide come into your home to
assist. That was hard enough. Now you re getting apprehensive
about what to expect when the aide arrives for work. If you
don't have experience with in-home assistance, all sorts of
"worst case scenarios" are whirling about in your head. And
then there are the questions. What should you do if you don't
like the aide?
should you approach problems? Who supervises the aide?
Assuming that you have hired an aide from a home health care
agency, you can expect a lot of support in easing your
anxieties. It is the agency's job to answer your questions in
advance and resolve any issues that arise. The key to
facilitating your satisfaction and comfort is good
communication with the agency management and with your aide.
are a few tips for establishing positive relationships with
your home health care professionals:
completely honest about your needs
any embarrassment or guilt associated with describing why you
need help and what kind of help you need. Remember that you
are dealing with professionals who have helped a variety of
clients. They are experienced in meeting the needs of people
just like you. Home Health Care professionals are prepared to
deal with tough situations such as Alzheimer's, alcoholism,
Parkinson's, strokes, incontinence and stressful family
your preferences from the start
best way to get exactly what you want is to be specific. Give
a detailed request to the agency so that the aide they send
will meet your needs. Items to include are your household
rules, such as "no smoking" or "kosher kitchen". Also express
your daily routines and how to follow the, such as "up at 7
a.m.", "breakfast first, medicine second, shower last" , "I
need privacy from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m.", "transportation to salon
every Friday, using employee's car".
feedback to the agency on a timely basis
it in the bud," is good advice. Most problems start out small
and can be best resolved when addressed promptly. If you are
experiencing a problem with the aide, call the agency. This
benefits you in two ways: you do not have to be involved in
reprimanding the aide, and it prompts the agency to
diplomatically resolve the problem. Employee supervision is
the responsibility of the agency. If the problem cannot be
resolved to your satisfaction, request the agency send a
different aide. The agency will handle the hiring and firing
you start off with honesty and communication, having a home
health care aide will be a successful and beneficial
SEC's Clayton: Advisers
can circumvent fiduciary duty
can get around the fiduciary duty that requires them to put
clients' interests above their own if exceptions are written
into client agreements, Securities and Exchange Commission
Chairman Jay Clayton told the Senate banking committee.
"This is something that we want people to understand,"
he said. (EFM_ that's funny)
Everyone knows few people read material presented for
annuities, life insurance, mutual funds and about everything
else. If the industry is allowed to do it, it will worsen the
bad reputation it already has.
This is a significant bargaining chip by the Chinese
China reportedly offers
to slash tariffs on US-made cars
is willing to lower tariffs on cars and auto parts
imported from the US to 15% from 40%, a source
familiar with high-level talks says. China reportedly has
not provided the US documentation about the reduction or
information about timing of the change.
situation worse than in China, Modi’s government
is struggling to combat the problem
a physician started practising 30 years ago, some 80 to 90 per
cent of his lung cancer patients were smokers, mostly men,
aged typically in their 50s or 60s.
in the past six years, half of Dr Kumar’s lung cancer
patients have been non-smokers, about 40 per cent of them
women. Patients are younger too, with 8 per cent in
their 30s and 40s.
S&P 500 down 15% from 2935
Look how bad Germany is. Part of it is due to the fact that
Merkel will no longer lead Germany. How much? Am not willing
to guess right now.
projections- almost all are going down
look at U.S. going to UNDER 2%. The UK shows an increase but
Brexit is a wild card. I gave up on Japan over two decades
ago so their reduction is part of an ongoing mess that
cannot be addressed properly due to all the elderly that
will need assistance. Don't have much to say on Russia-
might be politics that determines what they are capable of
doing. As far as Brazil is concerned, I won't deal with
South America at all. Far too much drugs and graft all over.
review of broker dealers and reps
observed situations where registered representatives did not
adequately consider the customer’s financial situation and
needs, investment experience, risk tolerance, time horizon,
investment objectives, liquidity needs and other investment
profile factors when making recommendations; in others, they
failed to take into account the cumulative fees, sales
charges or commissions,”
just pick 2 items where FINRA AND the B/Ds are pretty much
out to lunch. First is investment experience. No way that
the simple passing of time means much. Basically if you do
not know the definition of diversification, you are not an
investor. And no, it is not a simple 'don't put all your
eggs in one basket'. The other is risk. Since risk is not
identified by how much you could lose- at least in a
recession- than either the investor, his/her advisor or both
you are too old to drive
have the dubious honor of being the
age-based group that causes the most crashes on American roads
danger for older adults is that when
they are involved in an accident, they face a much higher
risk of being seriously injured or killed. According to
the CDC: Involvement in fatal crashes, per mile traveled,
begins increasing among drivers age 70‒74, and is highest
among drivers ages 85 and older.
6: The driver suffers from medical conditions that may impact
his or her ability to safely navigate a vehicle.
5: The driver takes medication that may impair response and
4: The driver suffers from recognizable cognitive decline.
3: Local roads and signs need to be upgraded.
2: The driver’s vehicle needs to be replaced.
1: There’s no real reason to drive.
it's real. In Vermont. It's a salute by a man who is fed up
with his town's politics and politicians
the hand was carved from the trunk of a tree- which probably
was equally pissed on the whole idea anyway
done just in time for Christmas viewing
Bull and Bearish
Yield curve- Mauldin
inversion reflects the difference between the 1 year and 10
gray line is the yield curve two years ago, the medium gray is
one year ago, and the blue is now. You can see the curve went
from very steep to much less so in this period. That is what
we mean by “flattening.”
Treasury Yield Curve
review of annuities
is just a sample showing some further leads to check
Insights,” comes from Fisher Investments.
They don’t like annuities very much over there, and make
money managing other kinds of investments.
two come from academics I’ve spoken to who do think certain
annuities are worth considering, and both have other jobs
that could earn them more money if more people buy
first, “Fixed Index Annuities: Consider the
Alternative,” by a Yale professor, Roger
Ibbotson, explains how some index annuities
could help people in a rising interest rate
environment. He is chairman of an investment firm that
could receive compensation for licensing rights to indexes
that annuity firms might use.
second, “Annuity Fables: Some Observations
From an Ivory Tower,” appeared in the Journal of Financial
Planning and was written by Moshe A. Milevsky of
University in Toronto. It is more of an omnibus piece about
the mean things people often say about annuities and whether
they are true. Professor Milevsky has a variety of
consulting engagements related to the products.
need access to better mental health care
health has become a crisis among America’s youth, and experts
say the unique challenges and needs of young men are not
receiving enough attention. Doctors, teachers and family
members may not recognize the symptoms of depression, which in
men can include anger, irritability and aggressiveness,
according to the National
Institute of Mental Health. Men are also less likely
than women to “recognize, talk about and seek treatment” for
depression, which is sometimes stereotyped as a women’s
problem, the agency said.
teenage girls attempt suicide more often than teenage boys,
according to the American
Foundation for Suicide Prevention, boys are more
likely to die by suicide. Suicide rates for teenage boys
and girls rose steadily from 2007 to 2015. In 2015, there were
1,537 suicides documented for boys ages 15 to 19 and 524 for
girls, according for the Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention.
economy there has slowed sharply
in what many are calling the worst downturn since the global
financial crisis in 2008.
From the New York Times. I knew it was slowing but this is
the first time I have seen, 'worst downturn'. That might get
them to accept an agreement of tariffs- something that I did
not think they would do.
does this reduce the military aggression in the South China
sea or in Antarctic? I doubt it.
death of Khashoggi finally put a light on all the deaths and
starvation in Yemen by Saudi Arabia. The
conflict between a Saudi-led coalition supporting the Yemeni
government and Iran-aligned rebels has killed at least
10,000 people and pushed 14 million more to the brink of
famine. Finally the U.S. is doing something to reign
in the Crown Prince (more will come from the House after
January 1st). Khashoggi's death would have been an
'unfortunate blip' on the psyche of the world's politicians
(mostly Trump) but the news outlets did not let it pass.
Thousands upon thousands will be saved. We must stand up for
what is right- but it has bothered me that we and the world
did not seem to care that much till Khashoggi.
Debt down a bit
Business Cycle Approach to Equity Sector Investing
White paper by Fidelity.
you should use this for allocation particularly during
recessionary periods. Nope too much risk and too low on
Myths In Portfolio Construction
overview by Alan Roth
they help in designing a good allocation with returns probably
greater than the market and with 75% less risk during
issues in children
the percentage of children ages 5 to 17 who were hospitalized
for suicidal thoughts or actions more than doubled from 2008
on suicidal or self-harm diagnoses from 32 children’s
hospitals across the United States found 118,363 instances
from 2008 to 2015. Accounting for 59,631 (50.4 percent) of the
incidents were 15- to 17-year-olds. Twelve- to
14-year-olds accounted for 43,682 (36.9 percent) of them,
while 5- to 11-year-olds accounted for 15,050 (12.7 percent).
time, the percentage of young patients hospitalized for
suicidal thoughts, rather than other ailments, more than
doubled. In 2008, 0.67 percent of patients were admitted
with suicidal thoughts or self-harming behavior. By 2015, that
percentage had increased to 1.79 percent.
Pimco Sees 'Flashing Orange' US
of U.S. downturn 30% in next 12 months, a nine-year
high, says the bond giant, which oversees $1.7 trillion.
I figured a recession in 2019 while most thought 2020. I
also thought no more than 3 interest raises in 2018.
But looks the FED may raise again this month. That makes me
think about the inverted yield curve
on- I got a call
of a smartphone seemed to reduce the quality of
conversations in one study. Another
study found a link between having a smartphone within
sight, even if turned off, with lower scores on tests of
short-term memory and problem solving.
effect is biggest for people who rely on their phones the
most," . "The more you give it control over different things — social
connections, news, work, etc. — the more you are going
to be attracted to this device."
can inhibit people from offering help
to strangers on the street, reduce how
much we smile
faces in a waiting room and even
lessen our trust of strangers, neighbors and people of other
religions or nationalities. (EFM- depends on whether
they have a nicer phone than me. True now after I tried to get
a couple Apple phones to learn how to swim. I now use two cans
and a string)
don't talk about or realize that we actually get quite a lot
from casual social interactions. "Even when phones are at
their most useful — such as when we're bored to death in the
waiting room — there might be other things we're missing out
not surprisingly, researchers have also begun to link weakened
social skills, including the inability
to read emotions or initiate casual
conversations, to smartphone use.
tethered we are to our phones, the harder it is to think
deeply, attentively and conceptually-
to mention remember basic information.
12/16: Pimco Sees 'Flashing Orange' US
of U.S. downturn 30% in next 12 months, a nine-year high,
says the bond giant, which oversees $1.7 trillion
I figured a recession in 2019- most indicated 2020. I figured
3 rate increase this year. But it looks like the FED will
raise rates in December for the fourth.
The ECB formally ended its
three-year, €2.6T monetary stimulus scheme, while cutting
its economic growth forecasts. "It's a climate of great
uncertainty,” ECB President Mario Draghi said at a press
conference. The ECB also confirmed it would keep its key
interest rates - which include a minus 0.4% rate on bank
deposits held at the central bank - unchanged at least
through the summer of 2019.
did ours some time ago as is noted by the increase in rates
last year. The ECB is (relatively) late and their economies
Warning for Seafood Lovers: Climate Change Could Crash
These Important Fisheries
and polar cod face a double whammy as the planet warms:
rising ocean temperatures and acidification could cut
reproduction by nearly two-thirds,
of 681 female and male IT professionals from U.S.
companies across a broad range of industries was conducted
in August 2018. Nearly one-third (31%) of the
professionals surveyed said their organization provides
career development programs for women after they have been
hired, and 29% of respondents reported that their company
offers programs to support recruiting and hiring women in
technology. In addition, 43% of the women surveyed said
that the attention paid to gender equality in the
workplace in the wake of the #MeToo movement has been
making the technology industry more welcoming to women
reality is that we’re spending thousands dining out:
Government data shows that in 2017 American spent more than
$3,300 a year on dining out — a 6.7% increase just from the
days when Americans eat out, they scarf an average of 200
more calories than when they eat at home.
three in four Americans are now either overweight or obese,
according to the CDC. And that’s costly: “The medical cost
for people who have obesity was $1,429 higher than those of
and conservative groups have been aggressively pushing
Trump’s rollback of fuel efficiency rules for automobiles,
a Times investigation found.
EFM- this will
not end well for the world
Inverted Yield Curve
federal debt has grown by $1.9 trillion in the past two
years and is now at a record high.
This is going to blow up in our face. You cannot have mounting
debt and a properly working country.
Climate change was behind 15 weather disasters in 2017
analyses of extreme weather events across six
continents and two oceans found nearly all were
exacerbated by climate change — and that at least
one heat wave would have been "virtually
impossible" without humans' impact on the planet.
EFM- Yes I know I harp on this and
that my commentary means little in the scale of the politics
involved. But since I have done so much fishing in so many
states, I have become acutely aware of the weather and nature.
From a completely different weather pattern in the San
Francisco Bay over 15 years to no bugs in old growth Florida,
it's a pity to see the changes that are needed and the lack of
consumer and political involvement.
Admittedly the costs will be
enormous but they are necessary to offset the decline of the
human race over the next 30 years.
by Robert Cialdini
the World Is Turning to Behavioral Science
1 – Editorial by Robert Metcalfe
Economics: Under the Microscope
2 – Applications
Science in Practice
3 – Resources
- Selected Behavioral
- Postgraduate Programs
- TED/TEDx Talks
- Scholarly Journals
- Author Profiles
- Contributing Organizations
percent of the Arctic’s oldest ice has been lost in just
there is so much focus on the drama in the OPEC cartel,
the real historic news that went unnoticed was that the
States last week exported more crude oil and fuel than
it imported for the first time on record,”
negotiators from around the world gathered in Poland to
discuss how to lower carbon emissions, the Trump
Administration unveiled two schemes promoting fossil fuels.
is hard to comprehend why we are collectively still moving
too slowly—and even in the wrong direction.”
report from an international team of scientists warned
that the planet was closer to dangerous warming than had
previously been believed, and that a critical
threshold could be crossed within a matter of years.
To avoid this, a rapid and total overhaul of global energy
systems would be needed. Such a transformation, the team
observed, has “no documented historical precedent.”
Trump Administration basically flipped off negotiators in
Poland by unveiling not one but two new schemes for
promoting fossil-fuel use. The first was a proposed rollback
of an Obama-era rule that effectively blocked new
construction of coal-fired power plants. The
second was a plan to open some nine million acres of
public lands in Western states to oil and gas drilling
by sweeping aside protections for the greater sage
grouse. Environmentalists—justifiably—labelled this
move a “giveaway” to the fossil-fuel industry. As the Times noted,
it would “open more land to drilling than any other step
the administration has taken.”
at the University of East Anglia and a group called the
Global Carbon Project announced that emissions are
again on the rise. Worldwide, they are expected to
have increased by almost three per cent in 2018, to
more than forty billion tons. In the United States,
emissions rose by about 2.5 per cent, following a decade
If you have followed my climate commentary for
the past few years you will note that I do not believe
civilization will do anything before it is too late.
It's not just climate- 1.5 billion more people by 2050,
at least one pandemic, massive loss of agricultural
land, far too little water, extreme food shortages- if
any at all, extreme pollution of what is left, fisheries
depleted, trees dying by the millions each year.....
20 years old today will find a shorter lifespan in 2030
of maybe just a few years but by 2050, the entire world
will have much shorter lifespans and certain countries
will no longer exist due to heat, lack of water, higher
sea water encroaching worldwide ..... The degradation
will be so severe that the human being may move to non
have, no later than 2025, to almost completely change
the way not only we live, but the entire world. We will
do it? I say no.
Too much bad news going on in Washington that I think it
will allow the market to go up- at least that much. But if
people REALLY spend for Christmas, who knows?
stable financial system, when hit by adverse events, or
“shocks,” continues to meet the demands of households and
businesses for financial services, such as credit provision
and payment services. In contrast, in an unstable system,
these same shocks are likely to have much larger effects,
disrupting the flow of credit and leading to declines in
employment and economic activity. Consistent with this view
of financial stability, the Federal Reserve Board’s
monitoring framework distinguishes between shocks to and
vulnerabilities of the financial system.
such as sudden changes to financial or economic conditions,
are typically surprises and are inherently difficult to
predict. Vulnerabilities tend to build up over time and are
the aspects of the financial system that are most expected
to cause widespread problems in times of stress. As a
result, the framework focuses primarily on monitoring
vulnerabilities and emphasizes four broad categories based
on research. 2
1. Elevated valuation pressures are signaled by asset prices
that are high relative to economic fundamentals or
historical norms and are often driven by an increased
willingness of investors to take on risk. As such, elevated
valuation pressures imply a greater possibility of outsized
drops in asset prices.
Excessive borrowing by businesses and households leaves them
vulnerable to distress if their incomes decline or the
assets they own fall in value. In the event of such shocks,
businesses and households with high debt burdens may need to
cut back spending sharply, affecting the overall level of
economic activity. Moreover, when businesses and households
cannot make payments on their loans, financial institutions
and investors incur losses
3, Excessive leverage within the financial sector increases
the risk that financial institutions will not have the
ability to absorb even modest losses when hit by adverse
shocks. In those situations, institutions will be forced to
cut back lending, sell their assets, or, in extreme cases,
shut down. Such responses can lead to credit crunches in
which access to credit for households and businesses is
Funding risks expose the financial system to the possibility
that investors will “run” by withdrawing their funds from a
particular institution or sector. Many financial
institutions raise funds from the public with a commitment
to return their investors’ money on short notice, but those
institutions then invest much of the funds in illiquid
assets that are hard to sell quickly or in assets that have
a long maturity. This liquidity and maturity transformation
can create an incentive for investors to withdraw funds
quickly in adverse situations. Facing a run, financial
institutions may need to sell assets quickly at “fire sale”
prices, thereby incurring substantial losses and potentially
even becoming insolvent. Historians and economists often
refer to widespread investor runs as “financial panics.”
Inverted yield curve. So close---so very, very close
Series WGS10YR: 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, %,
Series WGS1YR: 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, %, W,
SOPHISTICATION: INTRUSION OF BEHAVIORAL BIASES IN
(BAHRIA UNIVERSITY, ISLAMABAD CAMPUS); Taimoor Hassan
(University of Gujrat)
and conventional investment theory assumes that
people are rational while markets are efficient, but
people often think and act irrationally, and
financial markets rarely follow textbook models of
efficiency. Whereas behavioral finance uses
knowledge from psychological studies in context of
decision making in comparison to the so called
predictable models popular in standard finance. Most
oftenly investor behavior diverges from logics and
rationality as investors are victim of numerous
behavioral errors that intervene while they form
up investment decision. Decison making is
complicated due to the intervention of emotional
attachments & avoidances, cognitive errors,
and personality traits of decision makers. In
developing country like Pakistan where the
environment is unstable due to factors like security
threats, terrorism, inflation, energy crises and are
affecting the thinking pattern of people and the
ratio of educated entrepreneur is very less,
decisions are based on gut feelings, there is a need
to study the impact of self-control,
self-attribution along with cognitive dissonance and
confirmation bias on investment decision and the
current aimed to do so. The present study collected
primary data through questionnaire from stock and
bond investors. Significant positive relationship is
found between the study biases and their impact on
investment decisions of investors. Almost all
the subjects were found to be the victims of
confirmation bias, self-control bias,
self-attribution & cognitive dissonance bias.
Financial advisors are recommended to be first
trained and then consulted for the detection &
moderation of these biases before making
Finance, confirmation bias, self-control bias,
self-attribution, cognitive dissonance bias,
financial advisors, investment decisions.