for Asset Allocation- Increase Returns, Reduce Risk
SEQUENCE OF RETURNS PLANNING
negotiators from around the world gathered in Poland to
discuss how to lower carbon emissions, the Trump
Administration unveiled two schemes promoting fossil fuels.
is hard to comprehend why we are collectively still moving
too slowly—and even in the wrong direction.”
report from an international team of scientists warned
that the planet was closer to dangerous warming than had
previously been believed, and that a critical
threshold could be crossed within a matter of years.
To avoid this, a rapid and total overhaul of global energy
systems would be needed. Such a transformation, the team
observed, has “no documented historical precedent.”
Trump Administration basically flipped off negotiators in
Poland by unveiling not one but two new schemes for
promoting fossil-fuel use. The first was a proposed rollback
of an Obama-era rule that effectively blocked new
construction of coal-fired power plants. The
second was a plan to open some nine million acres of
public lands in Western states to oil and gas drilling
by sweeping aside protections for the greater sage
grouse. Environmentalists—justifiably—labelled this
move a “giveaway” to the fossil-fuel industry. As the Times noted,
it would “open more land to drilling than any other step
the administration has taken.”
at the University of East Anglia and a group called the
Global Carbon Project announced that emissions are
again on the rise. Worldwide, they are expected to
have increased by almost three per cent in 2018, to
more than forty billion tons. In the United States,
emissions rose by about 2.5 per cent, following a decade
If you have followed my climate commentary for
the past few years you will note that I do not believe
civilization will do anything before it is too late.
It's not just climate- 1.5 billion more people by 2050,
at least one pandemic, massive loss of agricultural
land, far too little water, extreme food shortages- if
any at all, extreme pollution of what is left, fisheries
depleted, trees dying by the millions each year.....
20 years old today will find a shorter lifespan in 2030
of maybe just a few years but by 2050, the entire world
will have much shorter lifespans and certain countries
will no longer exist due to heat, lack of water, higher
sea water encroaching worldwide ..... The degradation
will be so severe that the human being may move to non
have, no later than 2025, to almost completely change
the way not only we live, but the entire world. We will
do it? I say no.
Too much bad news going on in Washington that I think it
will allow the market to go up- at least that much. But if
people REALLY spend for Christmas, who knows?
stable financial system, when hit by adverse events, or
“shocks,” continues to meet the
demands of households and businesses for financial services,
such as credit provision and
payment services. In contrast, in an unstable system, these
same shocks are likely to have
much larger effects, disrupting the flow of credit and
leading to declines in employment and
Consistent with this view of financial stability, the
Federal Reserve Board’s monitoring
framework distinguishes between shocks to and
vulnerabilities of the financial system.
such as sudden changes to financial or economic conditions,
are typically surprises
and are inherently difficult to predict. Vulnerabilities
tend to build up over time and are the
aspects of the financial system that are most expected to
cause widespread problems in times
of stress. As a result, the framework focuses primarily on
monitoring vulnerabilities and
emphasizes four broad categories based on research.
1. Elevated valuation pressures are signaled by asset prices
that are high relative to economic
fundamentals or historical norms and are often driven by an
increased willingness of
investors to take on risk. As such, elevated valuation
pressures imply a greater possibility
of outsized drops in asset prices.
Excessive borrowing by businesses and households leaves them
vulnerable to distress if
their incomes decline or the assets they own fall in value.
In the event of such shocks,
businesses and households with high debt burdens may need to
cut back spending
sharply, affecting the overall level of economic activity.
Moreover, when businesses and
households cannot make payments on their loans, financial
institutions and investors
3, Excessive leverage within the financial sector increases
the risk that financial institutions
will not have the ability to absorb even modest losses when
hit by adverse shocks. In those
situations, institutions will be forced to cut back lending,
sell their assets, or, in extreme
cases, shut down. Such responses can lead to credit crunches
in which access to credit for
households and businesses is substantially impaired.
Funding risks expose the financial system to the possibility
that investors will “run” by
withdrawing their funds from a particular institution or
sector. Many financial institutions
raise funds from the public with a commitment to return
their investors’ money on
short notice, but those institutions then invest much of the
funds in illiquid assets that
are hard to sell quickly or in assets that have a long
maturity. This liquidity and maturity transformation can
create an incentive for investors to withdraw funds quickly
situations. Facing a run, financial institutions may need to
sell assets quickly at “fire sale”
prices, thereby incurring substantial losses and potentially
even becoming insolvent. Historians
and economists often refer to widespread investor runs as
Inverted yield curve. So close---so very, very close
FRED® Series WGS10YR: 10-Year
Treasury Constant Maturity
Rate, %, W, NSA
The most recent observation is 2.90
FRED® Series WGS1YR: 1-Year
Treasury Constant Maturity
Rate, %, W, NSA
The most recent observation is 2.70
SOPHISTICATION: INTRUSION OF BEHAVIORAL BIASES IN
(BAHRIA UNIVERSITY, ISLAMABAD CAMPUS); Taimoor Hassan
(University of Gujrat)
and conventional investment theory assumes that
people are rational while markets are efficient, but
people often think and act irrationally, and
financial markets rarely follow textbook models of
efficiency. Whereas behavioral finance uses
knowledge from psychological studies in context of
decision making in comparison to the so called
predictable models popular in standard finance. Most
oftenly investor behavior diverges from logics and
rationality as investors are victim of numerous
behavioral errors that intervene while they form
up investment decision. Decison making is
complicated due to the intervention of emotional
attachments & avoidances, cognitive errors,
and personality traits of decision makers. In
developing country like Pakistan where the
environment is unstable due to factors like security
threats, terrorism, inflation, energy crises and are
affecting the thinking pattern of people and the
ratio of educated entrepreneur is very less,
decisions are based on gut feelings, there is a need
to study the impact of self-control,
self-attribution along with cognitive dissonance and
confirmation bias on investment decision and the
current aimed to do so. The present study collected
primary data through questionnaire from stock and
bond investors. Significant positive relationship is
found between the study biases and their impact on
investment decisions of investors. Almost all
the subjects were found to be the victims of
confirmation bias, self-control bias,
self-attribution & cognitive dissonance bias.
Financial advisors are recommended to be first
trained and then consulted for the detection &
moderation of these biases before making
Finance, confirmation bias, self-control bias,
self-attribution, cognitive dissonance bias,
financial advisors, investment decisions.
G02 G11 D23
JPMorgan Chase analyst estimates that
uncertainty arising from Trump’s trade wars has already
shaved up to 10 percent off the S&P 500 this year.
Long term market
AND RESOURCES FOR WOMEN TO RISE IN THEIR CAREERS
Rationally Inattentive Consumer: An
(University of Arkansas); Deck, Cary
(University of Alabama and Chapman University); LeBlanc, Justin D.
(University of Arkansas); Tutino, Antonella
(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
paper presents a laboratory experiment that directly
tests the theoretical predictions of consumption
choices under rational inattention. Subjects are
asked to select consumption when income is random.
They can optimally decide to reduce uncertainty
about income by acquiring signals about it. The
informativeness of the signals directly relates to
the cognitive effort required to process the
information. We find that subjects’ behavior is
largely in line with the predictions of the
theory: 1) Subjects optimally make stochastic
consumption choices; 2) They respond to incentives
and changes in the economic environment by varying
their attention and consumption; 3) They respond
asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks to
income, with negative shocks triggering stronger
and faster reactions than positive shocks.
Inattention; Experimental Evidence; Information
Processing Capacity; Consumption
C91 D11 D8 E20
States moving toward
best-interest standards for insurance agents
to impose best-interest standards on insurance agents
could be taken up by as many as 14 states. "There's a
narrative that we have to fix something but there's no
evidence that there's something that needs fixing,"
AssessBEST CEO Kim O'Brien said.
Nothing wrong?? Insurance agents are not required on the
use of a financial calculator. Neither is it required of
Registerted Investment Advisers.
you do not know what is happening when you stuff numbers
into a computer, you have no idea what comes out.
Naysayers will say that you company has the best software
yada, yada but doing enough numbers over time will give
you a good idea what to expect that comes out.
Which Two Heads are Better than One?
Uncovering the Positive Effects of Diversity in Creative
Dutcher, E. Glenn;
Rodet, Cortney S.
teams drive the idea-economy, yet the determinants
of a team's ability to create new ideas are not
universally agreed upon. Group-level diversity has
gained the most traction as an explanation, where a
team's performance is usually attributed to
diversity over observed characteristics such as
race, gender, or functional expertise. Most agree
that these characteristics are not especially
important, but rather serve as an indicator of
diversity in experiences, which is the actual
mechanism that improves team ability. We formalize
and test if experientially diverse groups produce
more ideas. Because group assignment to projects in
the field is rarely exogenous, and experiential
diversity is not measured in observational data, we
use a laboratory experiment to test our proposal.
We find that experientially diverse teams create
more ideas and also find no additional effect for
gender, racial, socioeconomic, or personality
diversity. Our general finding for why diversity
may be important indicates that if a correlation
exists between characteristic diversity and
experiential diversity, the characteristically
diverse team will have a higher ability. This
generalization can be used to unify divergent
results from prior studies and can help explain
how dissimilar corporate diversity policies could
be equally successful.
Creativity, Group Production, Experimental Economics
C90 C92 J24 M50 O30 O31 O34
Social Norm Perception in Economic
Laboratory Experiments: Inexperienced versus Experienced
Schmidt, Robert J.;
Sproten, Alec N.
study whether social norm perception in economic
laboratory experiments differs between subjects that
participate for the first time and subjects that
already participated many times. Consistent with
previous studies, inexperienced subjects
pronounce egalitarianism, while experienced
subjects pronounce efficiency and the maximization
of their own earnings. Moreover, experienced
subjects evaluate exploitation and deception of
other individuals in the lab as more appropriate
than inexperienced subjects. Field norms also
slightly differ between the two groups, but to a
lower extent than lab norms. We therefore conclude
that learning effects are more important than
selection effects for explaining differences
between inexperienced and experienced
participants. We also conduct exploratory analyses
on the relation between lab and field norms and
find that behaving unsocial in the lab is
considered substantially more appropriate than in
the field. This appears inconsistent with the
hypothesis that social preferences measured in
economic experiments are inflated and indicates a
distinction between revealed social preferences and
the elicitation of normatively appropriate behavior.
experiments; selection effects; learning;
French finance minister:
Protests seriously damaging economy
damage caused by the so-called Yellow Jackets protests in
Paris is a "catastrophe for our economy,"
Will Macron hold on? Merkel is gone. What happens to
England when Brexit is finished? Turkey is moving away
from the U.S., North Korea has been a big joke between
'lovers'. Russia will continue to infiltrate our
Just because I thought this was quite unusual and
something I never heard of ever.
512 year old shark found in the North Atlantic
12/10. Salt your food
than 90 percent of sea salt sold across the world contains
of plastic waste worldwide is being recycled, so that leaves
a lot to be wasted. Eight million
tons of plastic ends up in oceans annually, and 80
percent of all ocean pollution comes from humans.
A nice sandy beach on the Arabian Sea. Tourists love it
U.S. rejects language affirming
global warming’s severity, joining Russia, Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait as battle lines sharpen at summit
Unless the world works together to curtail the massive
changes that are now occurring and will continue for the
next millennia , we will not have a viable civilization.
Only the VERY rich will be able to spend enough money to
make their own electricity, pump their own water, etc. and
distance themselves from the rest of the riffrap that
would slowly be dying.
Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
are the elements that need to come together into an integrated
solution to fix retirement.
Make a personal finance course a requirement to graduate
high school. Today only
16.4% of high schools students are required to take a
personal finance class in high school.
It would also be ideal if employers offered financial
education as part of an overall financial wellness
standard: Embrace product
& practice principles that are in line with a
Fiduciary standard - have all products be efficient, low
fee, simple, transparent and designed to be in the best
interest of users.
access to savings & investing vehicles:
Innovate new simple financial products that provide
lifetime income. Incentivize employers to offer better
retirement savings options and provide a government
supported alternative if there is not an employer option.
best practices: Research shows that
defaults in retirement plans make a huge difference in
Features like auto enrollment into a 401(k), defaulting
the savings rate, defaulting an appropriate portfolio
allocation can materially move people towards retirement
anyone to create and manage their own retirement
financial plan: Equip everyone with a
portable living plan that is owned by the consumer and
managed over time.
collaborative planning with expert advisors who are
fiduciaries: They can coach & support
people and help them effectively take action - ideally a
digital / human hybrid solution to maximize effectiveness
while minimizing cost.
news is that many of the elements of a complete solution are
known and consumers are pushing the financial planning
industry to get more efficient and lower costs for many core
financial products. The next phase of the evolution involves
doing the same thing for guidance and advice.
WRONG!!!!! Now I am not to say that certain of these
elements will not help. But the key element to a greater
return overall and that decreases risk during the worst
times is through the Process described above. This is of
the greatest concern since investors will probably
be going through another recession within the next
year where losses will probably be 50%+ once again. But
the concept that the market always comes back is not
preordained and if we suffer a flat market for awhile, the
retirees will never enough money no matter what they do.
However in all these articles in Forbes, Fortunes, Wall
Street Jurnal et al, any statistics show the market
returning relatively quickly and at pretty good returns.
The world economy is nothing like it was. The U.S. is
losing its reputation and capabilities due to China
(mostly) and it is simply foolish to attempt statistics
based on what happened from 1922; even starting in 1963.
We are in a period of substantial flux and the very first
element in financial planning is RISK
essence of investment management entails the management
of risk, not the management of returns.
average monthly premium of the Market return over the
one-month T-Bill return is substantial, as are average
premiums of value and small stocks over Market. As the return
horizon increases, premium distributions become more disperse,
but they move to the right (toward higher values) faster than
they become more disperse. There is, however, some bad news.
Even if future expected premiums match high past averages,
high volatility means that for the three- and five-year
periods commonly used to evaluate asset allocations, the
probabilities of negative realized premiums are substantial,
and the probabilities are nontrivial for ten-year and
The most important news of the past week
Hawaiian monk seals keep getting eels stuck up their noses and
scientists want them to stop
teenagers the world over will be stuffing eels up their nose.
I mean that is one spaced out mesmerized seal
Kurtosis measures the fatness of the tail of a distribution of
returns. It compares the size of the middle of a distribution
with the size of the tails. Higher kurtosis means fewer but
bigger unusual events. Low kurtosis reflects more frequent,
modest moves. Counter-intuitively, therefore, low volatility
can exist with high kurtosis, as medium-sized shocks become
rarer versus the odd extreme move. The danger for investors is
that they may confuse low volatility with calm, when
statistically, monsters lurk.
the impending end of the European Central Bank’s quantitative
easing “Asset Purchasing Programme,” which has been propping
up asset prices with wholesale purchases of bonds, stocks,
and anything else that isn’t nailed down.
they take away the input, it could/would strain Europe into a
recession. And us. And it you have a traiff war at the same
time--- oh my!
Powell described an economy that “is close” to achieving
maximum employment and price stability,” he noted that
“there are reasons for concern,” including the rising
debt loads and growing interest burdens of highly
leveraged firms and the deteriorating quality of debt
three other vulnerabilities, according to Powell, are
excessive leverage in the financial sector and funding risk
for banks and nonbank financial entities, and financial
Trump and the world
recent revalations will hurt our position in negotiations with
Russia, North Korea (which has been a joke) and absolutely
China. Trump's political ability has been clearly hampered and
we have not yet got the final Mueller report. It does not
makes sense that, in particular, that China will bend over to
accept U.S. demands with an individual that potentially can be
impeached. The market will/has already been impacted but I
cannot see that this is the end of turbulence.
not on the tip of everyone's tongue, Hungary is snubbing the
U.S. in any case. It certainly seems that the intransigency
will get worse.
with John Kelly leaving in a couple of weeks, is there anyone
who could keep Trump in line?? If it is a yes man, the chaotic
situation could possible get worse- if that was possible.
to Sustainably Feed 10 Billion People by 2050 World
Resources Institute- 21 charts
global population set to rise to 9.8 billion by 2050 That's
.8 billion more than my previous statistics stated.
is a big shortfall between the amount of food we produce today
and the amount needed to feed everyone in 2050. There will be
nearly 10 billion people on Earth by 2050—about 3 billion more
mouths to feed than there were in 2010. As incomes rise,
people will increasingly consume more resource-intensive,
animal-based foods. At the same time, we urgently need to cut
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural production
and stop conversion of remaining forests to agricultural land.
10 billion people sustainably by
2050, then, requires closing three gaps:
56 percent food gap between
crop calories produced in 2010 and those needed in 2050
under “business as usual” growth;
593 million-hectare land gap (an
area nearly twice the size of India) between global
agricultural land area in 2010 and expected agricultural
expansion by 2050; and
11-gigaton GHG mitigation gap between
expected agricultural emissions in 2050 and the target level
needed to hold global warming below 2oC
(3.6°F), the level necessary for preventing the worst
Why fewer children have health insurance now
year, the number of U.S. children without health
insurance jumped by 276,000 — to 3.9 million, up
from a low of 3.6 million in 2016 — according to a
report published last week by Georgetown
University. It was the first increase in the
number of uninsured children in America since
2008, when the lead author of the study started
keeping track of the data.
factors led to that, including states refusing
to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act,
creating a gap in affordable coverage options for
low-income families. But even some families who
are not considered low income made the difficult
choice to forgo insurance last year due to
don't prevent my kids from doing anything, but I
live in fear," said one mother in Alaska. "I live
in fear at every soccer game."
A correct Christmas
1. I Saw
Mommy Kissing Santa Claus: subjecting minors to softcore
porn and cheating on daddy.
2. The Christmas Song: Open fire? Pollution. Folks dressed
up like Eskimos? Cultural appropriation
3. Holly Jolly
Christmas: Kiss her once for me? Unwanted advances
4. White Christmas?
5. Santa Claus is
Coming to Town: Sees you when you’re sleeping? Knows
when you’re awake? Peeping Tom stalker
6. Most Wonderful Time
of the Year: Everyone telling you be of good cheer?
Forced to hide depression
7. Rudolph the
Red-Nosed Reindeer: Bullying
8. It’s Beginning to
Look a Lot Like Christmas: Forced gender-specific gifts:
dolls for Janice and Jen and boots and pistols (GUNS!)
for Barney and Ben
9. Santa Baby: Gold
digger, blackmail, hooker
10. Frosty the
Snowman: Sexist; not a snow woman
11. Do You Hear What I
Hear: blatant disregard for the hearing impaired
12. Have Yourself a
Merry Little Christmas: Make the yuletide GAY? Wow, just
13. Jingle Bell Rock:
Giddy up jingle horse, pick up your feet: animal abuse
14. Mistletoe and
Holly: Overeating, folks stealing a kiss or two? How did
this song ever see the light of day?
15. Winter Wonderland:
Parson Brown demanding they get married…forced
16. The Hanukkah song-
I'm not Jewish, dont force your religion on others.
17. Grandma got ran
over by a reindeer- promotes a hit and run..also I dont
want my kid to think theres no such person..
Oil price jumps
after Opec agrees to cut output by 1.2m barrels a day
prices spiked on Friday after OPEC+ surprised markets with
a last minute agreement to cut production by 1.2 million
bpd starting in January 2019.
Study: Millennials spend
less because they don't have money
study by the Federal Reserve found that the differences in
spending between millennials and other age groups are a
reflection of millennials' lack of wealth, not their
personal values. Millennials "are less well-off than
members of earlier generations [were] when they were
young, with lower earnings, fewer assets, and less
wealth," the study found.
My reply to 401k education
has been a major failing of the industry in addressing the risk of investing. Not Sharpe ratio, historical
charts and reams of problematic spread sheets showing
returns since the Bronze age, Monte Carlo and mean return
(statistically invalid), buy and hold heresy, rebalancing
(doesn’t really work), untested alternatives- while such
work had hundreds of thousands of workers lose (S&P 500)
49% in 2000; 57% in 2008 and who knows how much coming up
with another inverted yield curve indicating an upcoming
recession. Instead of banal- or worse yet- convoluted-
offerings that will not hit home with 90% of workers, first
teach the basics they need to know. A budget, basic software
for how much they will need at retirement (if audience is
over 45/50), what they need to do to get enough, risk they
need to take, how to reduce said risk of loss to only 12%
to15% during major losses and when and how to get back in.
With an 85/90% probability of earning greater returns.
“The essence of
investment management entails the management of risk,
not the management of returns.”
have had the surgery. Went fine but the physician did not
provide info on the results to be expected. Perfect
eyesight after surgery but once the swelling went down,
the results were not as good. Should have been told.)
Treatment of Advanced Forms of the Common Eye Disease Can
Increase Risk of Permanent Blindness and Injury.
American Academy of Ophthalmology urges seniors and their
caregivers to be aware of the dangers of ignoring the symptoms
of cataracts, a leading cause of visual impairment that will
affect more than half of all Americans by the time they are 80
years old. Delaying diagnosis and treatment of age-related
cataracts can increase seniors' risk of permanent blindness
and can lead to both physical and psychological damage.
are caused by the clouding of the lens of the eye and are most
common among older adults as the condition develops as the eye
ages. Many seniors cope with cataracts — accepting vision loss
as an inevitable part of the aging process rather than seeking
medical treatment. Due to the incapacitation caused by blurred
vision, leaving cataracts undiagnosed and untreated can lead
to physical danger such as injuries from falls or running into
unseen objects, as well as psychological harm like depression
and social isolation. In addition, the longer advanced forms
of cataracts are left untreated, the more difficult it can be
to successfully repair the damage caused to the eye.
age 65 and older should have regular eye exams to monitor for
the development of cataracts, in addition to other common eye
conditions and diseases, such as age-related macular
degeneration (AMD) and glaucoma. People with diabetes, a
family history of cataracts, and those who smoke tobacco are
at an increased risk of developing cataracts. Common symptoms
such as dull, blurry vision, colors appearing less vibrant,
and halos around lights may begin to be noticeable as
cataracts develop. This cataract simulator demonstrates how
vision is affected by cataracts.
are nearly always treatable with surgery, but it may not be
necessary until performing daily activities becomes difficult.
If daily life isn't disturbed, a change in a person's eyeglass
prescription may be all that is necessary until visual
impairment becomes more severe. If completing everyday tasks
is challenging, cataract surgery should be discussed with an
ophthalmologist — a medical doctor specializing in the
diagnosis, medical and surgical treatment of eye diseases and
who find themselves giving up normal tasks like reading,
exercising or driving due to cataract symptoms should know
that they do no not need to suffer in silence," said Rebecca
Taylor, M.D., spokesperson for the American Academy of
Ophthalmology. "Cataract surgery can help these individuals
regain their sight and their independence. It is one of the
most common and safest procedures performed in medicine, so
seniors should not resist seeking help. Getting treatment can
vastly improve your quality of life."
people without regular access to eye care or for whom cost is
a concern, EyeCare America, a public service program of the
Foundation of the American Academy of Ophthalmology, offers
eye exams and care at no out-of-pocket cost to qualifying
seniors age 65 and older through its corps of nearly 7,000
volunteer ophthalmologists across the U.S. To learn more about
EyeCare America or to find out if you or a loved one qualifies
for the program, visit www.eyecareamerica.org. EyeCare America
is co-sponsored by the Knights Templar Eye Foundation, Inc.,
with additional support from Alcon and Genentech.
the American Academy of Ophthalmology
American Academy of Ophthalmology, headquartered in San
Francisco, is the world's largest association of eye
physicians and surgeons — Eye M.D.s — with more than 32,000
members worldwide. Eye health care is provided by the three
"O's" – ophthalmologists, optometrists, and opticians. It is
the ophthalmologist, or Eye M.D., who has the education and
training to treat it all: eye diseases, infections and
injuries, and perform eye surgery. For more information, visit
www.aao.org. The Academy's EyeSmart® program educates the
public about the importance of eye health and empowers them to
preserve healthy vision. EyeSmart provides the most trusted
and medically accurate information about eye diseases,
conditions and injuries. OjosSanos™ is the Spanish-language
version of the program. Visit www.geteyesmart.org or
www.ojossanos.org to learn more.
in 1985, EyeCare America, a public service program of the
Foundation of the American Academy of Ophthalmology, is
committed to the preservation of sight, accomplishing its
mission through public service and education. EyeCare America
provides year-round eye care services to medically underserved
seniors and those at increased risk for eye disease. More than
90 percent of the care made available is provided at no
out-of-pocket cost to the patients. More information can be
found at: www.eyecareamerica.org.
Salary needed for home
record flows to passive TDFs haunt savers when next
TDF are touted as the best investment for the rest of your
life- it is a fraud. If you have LOTS of money, do whatever
you want. But investing in bonds and the like over your
retirement will mean losses due to inflation and the FED
raising interest rates.
The TDF market
eclipsed the $1 trillion market in 2017, .
$70 billion flowed into TDFs last year, an all-time high. But
the headline story from Morningstar’s report was the dominance
of passively invested TDFs, which accounted for an
astonishing 95 percent of estimated TDF flows.
The ice sheet is adding more to
sea level rise than any time in the last three and a half
on Greenland's ice sheet has gone into "overdrive," with
meltwater runoff increasing 50 percent since the
start of the industrial era and continuing to accelerate,
new research shows. As more water runs off the ice sheet, it
drives sea level rise, putting new pressure on coastal
communities around the world.
ice from all sources will raise sea level between 8 and
12 inches more by 2050
think there's a tipping point around 1.5 Celsius of [global]
warming to 2 degrees Celsius of warming that would commit
the ice sheet to melting for centuries or millennia, based
on paleoclimate records," Trusel said. The average global
temperature is expected to start hitting that benchmark
between 2030 and 2052, according to a recent IPCC
and the Arctic is warming at twice the average global
all of Greenland's ice were to melt, it would raise sea
level by about 20 feet. The latest IPCC report estimates
that global sea level will rise somewhere between 10 and 30
inches by 2100 if global temperatures warm by 1.5 degrees
Celsius above pre-industrial times. With 2 degrees Celsius
warming, sea level would rise an additional 4 inches,
putting 10 million more people at risk of flooding,
12/9: Home Equity and
Urban Institute recently quantified how much this untapped
equity could be worth to seniors in the United States and 10
European countries if it were converted to income – and the
amounts are significant.
typical retired U.S. household has the potential to increase
its retirement income by 35 percent, researchers Stipica
Mudrazija and Barbara Butrica estimate.
In Europe, using home equity would add anywhere from 19
percent in Sweden to 100 percent in Spain.
We are part of the global warming. Even if one wanted to
disagree, the real life impact we are facing will change
mankind for the worse.
After two years of plateau, annual greenhouse gas
emissions from fossil fuels worldwide have jumped a
projected 2.7 percent, for a record high. A report by the
Stanford-led Global Carbon Project places blame on massive
growth in the worldwide economy but
also on a too-slow transition to clean energy by the U.S.
and other wealthy nations. "Countries can grow
while cutting fossil fuel use," one of the report's authors
told reporter Kurtis Alexander. "But there just aren't enough
countries doing this."
This will hurt the tariff negotiations. But the part that
was 'humorous' was 'human rights '.
demands release of tech-giant executive
after arrest on U.S. extradition charges
Wanzhou, Huawei Technologies' chief financial
officer and daughter of the company's founder,
was detained in Canada earlier this week amid
reports that the U.S. was seeking her
extradition because the company had violated a
ban on sending U.S. technology to Iran.
Chinese Embassy in Canada said on Thursday the
country "firmly opposes and strongly protests"
Meng's arrest, calling it a "wrongdoing" that "harmed
the human rights of the victim," and stock
markets fell on the news.
which recently passed Apple as the
second-biggest maker of cellphones after Samsung
Electronics, has been the target of deepening
U.S. security concerns.
AND THIS JUST CAME IN
Dow plunges by
more than 700 points on fears U.S.-China relations will
worsen after arrest of tech executive
I'll be dead too but it really pisses me off now
the Daily Beast published a story on how unserious President
Trump has been about tackling the deficit. Last year, according to the
piece, senior officials presented him with charts that
projected a “hockey stick” spike in the national debt if the
federal government continues on its present trajectory.
“Yeah, but I won’t be here,” the president reportedly
said, according to a source who was in the room, adding that
the spike wouldn’t come until after he finished his second
are getting tired
Sleep Quality Is More Important Than Hours Slept
you asked someone about their diet and they said: “I eat every
day.” Great news, but not very illuminating. Eating everyday
could mean two eggs for breakfast, a salad for lunch, and a
small piece of fish with brown rice for dinner. It could also
mean a steady intake of TV dinners and cupcakes.
quality is trickier to measure — but it’s just as important.
To understand how someone is sleeping, you first have to
understand the sleep cycle.
sleep follows a pattern, which experts divide into four
stages. Scientists discovered this pattern about 100 years
ago, using machines that detect brain waves as we sleep.
1 (Drifting Off)
2 (Light Sleep)
3 (Deep Sleep)
4 (REM Sleep)
Cars of the future: Financial Times
Car manufactures such as
General Motors are in trouble. Not because of tariffs,
rising labour costs or the PR challenges of moving
jobs abroad. As their products become more about software
and less about hardware, a new technology-based ecosystem
is emerging that risks doing to GM what Apple’s
iPhone did to Nokia.
Approximately 15% of the population have a mental or
6000 veterans commit suicide each year.
about 23 military commit suicide each DAY
bunch are in California
been to all of them- the
rankings seem justified
About 15% of the world's population have a mental or
US Treasury yield curves
invert for first time since 2007
spread between three- and five-year yields turned negative
on Monday, dropping below zero for the first time since
2007, as did the two- to five-year gap. The more closely
watched two- to 10-year spread reached its narrowest point
since the same year.
the two and 10 year inversion is one of the most noted
leading indicators of a recession about 12 to 14 months
out. It does not address how long it would last nor how
bad it would be. I taught this back in the late 90's and
it fialied was cfollowed o
6000 Vets commit suicide each year
23 of all military commit suicide EVERY DAY
Respite for caregivers
day care centers provide a break (respite) to the caregiver
while providing health services, therapeutic services and
social activities for people with Alzheimer’s disease and
related dementia, chronic illnesses, traumatic brain injuries,
developmental disabilities and other problems that increase
their care needs.
adult day care centers are dementia specific, providing
services exclusively to that population. Other centers serve
the broader population.
difference between traditional adult respite, both group and
in-home care, and adult day care is that adult day centers not
only provide respite to family caregivers but also therapeutic
care for cognitively and physically impaired older
of Adult Day Care
day care allows caregivers to continue working outside the
home, receive help with the physical care of a loved one,
avoid the guilt of placing a loved one in institutional care,
and have respite from what can be a “24/7” responsibility.
caregiver’s loved one can also benefit from adult day care. He
or she is able to remain at home with family but does not
require 24-hour care from the primary caregiver. Adult day
care participants also have an opportunity to interact
socially with peers, share in stimulating activities, receive
physical or speech therapy if needed, and receive assistance
with the activities of daily living with dignity.
Adult Day Services Association for a set of
guidelines for adult day service programs. The U.S.
Administration on Aging Eldercare
Locatorcan also direct you to adult day care centers in
your area. Ultimately, word of mouth is often one of the best
ways of finding quality adult day care.
Do I Choose an Adult Day Care Center?
an individual needs assessment before admission to determine
your loved one’s abilities and needs
there an active program that meets his or her daily social,
recreational, and rehabilitative needs?
the center develop an individualized treatment plan for
participants and monitor it regularly, adjusting the plan as
there referrals to other needed community services?
clear criteria for service and guidelines for termination
established based on the person’s functional status?
a full range of in-house services offered, such as personal
care, transportation, meals, health screening and
monitoring, educational programs, counseling and
the center provide a safe, secure environment?
the volunteers qualified and well-trained?
the center adhere to or exceed existing state and national
standards and guidelines.
from an ARCH National Respite Network publication: archrespite.org
Keep on Truckin'
has laid out a series of goals to cut down on car exhaust,
but according to a report, auto carbon emissions have been
increasing steadily because commuters are driving further.
for those in the know, the picture is a perfect example of
rush hour. Actually it may be more like two hours.
you are looking at is not unusual.
is exactly what is happening. Fewer bugs
German study found that, measured simply by weight, the
overall abundance of flying insects in German nature
reserves had decreased by 75 percent over just 27 years.
If you looked at midsummer population peaks, the drop was
each generation, the amount of environmental degradation
increases, but each generation takes that amount as the
norm.” In decades of photos of fishermen holding up their
catch in the Florida Keys, the marine biologist Loren
McClenachan found a perfect illustration of this
phenomenon, which is often called “shifting baseline
kept finding that birds that rely on insects for food were
in trouble: eight in 10 partridges gone from French
farmlands; 50 and 80 percent drops, respectively, for
nightingales and turtledoves. Half of all farmland birds
in Europe disappeared in just three decades.
learned that the world’s largest king penguin colony
shrank by 88 percent in 35 years, that more than 97
percent of the bluefin tuna that once lived in the ocean
is estimated that, since 1970, Earth’s various populations
of wild land animals have lost, on average, 60 percent of
their members. Zeroing in on the category we most relate
to, mammals, scientists believe that for every six wild
creatures that once ate and burrowed and raised young,
only one remains.
Back in the 50's when my father would drive from Mass to
Florida, you would run into huge horses of bugs that were
almost impossible to get through without stopping and
cleaning the windshield. And everyone knew you had gone on
a trip because of the bugs embedded IN the radiator.
a trip to Florida 20 years ago, all that had to happen was
for the sun start to go down and then there were
massive horses of mosquitoes.
in California for years. Caught lots of bass in the mid
90s because weather highs would stop for days, temperature
would rise, the waters would calm, and I caught stripe
bass by the hundreds. But each year thereafter, the winds
went up, temperatures rarely got hot, and the waters
stayed turbid throughout the 'summer'.
in Sacramento. Bugs were not that predominant but enough
to do top water.
forward to now where I live next to old growth 'forest'
next to Floridas's Lake Rosseeau (sans bass)_where there
are effectively NO flying insects at all. Middle of summer
and I am lucky to even hear a mosquito. NO dragon flies.
Very seldom does one try top water lures because the bass
aren't looking up to feed. A few butterflies during the
day but not much else. Whoever heard of Florida without
we keep losing bugs, then we lose humanity.
Upbeat economy, downbeat economy
the plus side
Despite some difficulties, the gross domestic product in the
United States rose at a 3.5
percent annual rate in the third
Board’s Leading Economic Indicators index has been
rising, which suggests that a recession is probably not
The yield curve — the difference between long- and short-term
interest rates — remains in a bullish zone, although that
positive margin has been narrowing and bears close watching.
(EFM- see article from weekend- lots of worry as far as I am
The end of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate tightening
cycle may be in sight. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chairman,
said on Wednesday that interest rates were already close to a “neutral” level,
which might imply that rates won’t rise much higher.
Finally, there is already so much bad news about the stock
market that it amounts to good news. According to contrarian
logic, Mr. Hickey said, the negatives are baked into stock
prices, so the market has room to rise.
last item may be a stretch. It is an indication, he said, that
he is having difficulty being upbeat.
the minus side
The trend of stock prices has been quite negative. While a
string of strong days could turn that around, momentum is
Despite Mr. Powell’s latest comments, the Fed is still
tightening monetary policy, which could easily derail the
stock market and the economy.
The fiscal stimulus provided by the tax cut is, increasingly,
behind us. Combined with tighter monetary policy, the loss of
fiscal stimulus could hurt the American economy.
Tariffs have been rising, and business sentiment has been
depressed by the prospect of widening trade wars.
Global economic growth has been slowing, and many stock
markets around the world are already in bear market territory.
The domestic housing market has weakened, homebuilder stocks
have plunged, commodity prices have fallen, and auto sales are
The tech sector, which propelled the market higher earlier in
the year, has now lost hundreds of billions of dollars in
value. Because of the importance of stocks like Amazon,
Facebook, Netflix, Alphabet (Google) and Apple, the
psychological “impact of their weakness can’t be overstated,”
tariffs on hold for 90 days
compromise, struck over a steak dinner at the Group of 20
meeting here and announced in a White House statement, was
less a breakthrough than a breakdown averted. The two
leaders remain far apart on basic issues of market access
and trade policy, and there was no sign that either
planned to back down on those.
I still don't think this will end particularly well for the
U.S. since Trump may be engaged in a fight to hold onto his
Warning for Seafood Lovers: Climate Change Could Crash
These Important Fisheries
and polar cod face a double whammy as the planet warms:
rising ocean temperatures and acidification could cut
reproduction by nearly two-thirds
Farmers, Don't Count on Technology to Protect Agriculture from Climate
worsening impact of heat, drought and extreme weather
will overtake tech and science advances within decades
at the current pace,
Job Polarization Explain the Rise in Earnings
Inequality? Evidence from Europe"
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8652
MAURIZIO BUSSOLO, World
Bank - Chief Economist Office for Europe and Central Asia
IVAN TORRE, World Bank
HERNAN JORGE WINKLER, World Bank - International Finance
and job polarization have increased significantly in several
countries since the early 1990s. Using data from European
countries covering a 20-year period, this paper provides new
evidence that the decline of middle-skilled occupations
and the simultaneous increase of high- and low-skilled
occupations are important factors accounting for the rise
of inequality, especially at the bottom of the
distribution. Job polarization accounts for a large share
of the increasing inequality between the 10th and the 50th
percentiles, but it explains little or none of the
increasing inequality between the 50th and 90th percentiles.
Other important developments during this period, such as
changing wage returns, higher educational attainment, and
increased female labor force participation, account for a
small portion of the changes in inequality.
Infants and Young Children in South Asia"
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8655
HARRIET TORLESSE, United
Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)
DHUSHYANTH RAJU, World Bank
and complementary feeding practices predict child stunting
and wasting in South Asia, suggesting that initiatives to
end undernutrition in the region should focus on improving
the diets of young children. This review of the literature
finds that South Asia has made relatively good progress in
improving breastfeeding practices compared with other
regions, but the lack of diversity in complementary foods
and low frequency of feeding continue to be problems. Children
who are most at risk of experiencing poor feeding include
those who are born small, have younger mothers, and live
in poorer households or in communities with less access
to, or lower uptake of, primary health services. Initiatives
to improve feeding practices have not produced substantial
improvement, particularly in complementary feeding,
because such efforts have lacked the coverage, intensity,
comprehensiveness, and continuity needed. Policy, legal, and
program actions to protect, promote, and support recommended
feeding practices should be informed by situation analyses
and formative research on context-specific drivers of poor
practices. The actions should involve multiple sectors
and stakeholders, including governments, the private
sector, communities, and households.
Purchasing Power by State
On the lighter side of the news
50 Cent on His Son Marquise: I ‘Wouldn’t Have a Bad Day’ If
He Got Hit by a Bus......
nuns accused of years-long theft from school.......