not the Fed’s job to stop people from losing money.”
head of the Federal Reserve
people who are
disabled give up on careers
Niamh Ní Hoireabhaird, has written a stirring piece on
the everyday struggles of living with a
disability. “Each day
brings low-level difficulties that add up to an overwhelming
exhaustion and defeat,” she says. “It’s no wonder so many of us
give up on our
If you have ever been disabled (26 years). give them the benefit
of a doubt if they don't quite look the part,The old saying,
'whatever does not kill you makes you stronger; Get real.
You will be angry, frustrated, anxious. Sometimes you will not
feel anything because the disability has left you numb, A lot of
your life can get lost
Just scroll to your year and see the
Tudor Jones- the
next U.S. recession will be “frightening,” that “prices in
stocks, real estate, anything” will revert to the mean, and
we’ll have “to get back to a sustainable fiscal policy and that
probably means the price of assets goes down in the very long
6/21: I lived close to San Francisco
for a long time. For a tourist, a short stay is OK but a
longer one will show some of the holes in society. .There are
homeless at every major corner begging for change. But this
is really how bad the drugs have become. The BART system has
installed a kiosk at the Civic Center station where addicts
throw away their dirty needles. I doubt this will be in the
all plan sizes, 73.7% offer a match, down from 74.7% the year
before. There is a spread of 17 points between micro and mega
plans when it comes to matches: 67.9% of micro plans offer them
and 85.0% of mega plans do so.
money spent on health care will mean less spent on priorities
such as education, transportation and public safety
We will still have mucho money for the military. And by 2025,
there should be a beginning for flood control on almost all
states bordering the ocean. This will cost trillions. We should
have two more major huricane floods that will decimate large
area that then should be "put out to pasture";. Somewhere in
that time line, we might lose New Orleans so go in the next five
That is a LOT of money.
per kid, per night: Separating families at the
border costs millions more than keeping them
cost of holding migrant children who have been
separated from their parents in newly created "tent
cities" is $775 per person per night, according to an
official at the Department of Health and Human
Services — far higher than the cost of keeping
children with their parents in detention centers or
holding them in more permanent buildings.
those prices, the additional cost to operate a 400-bed
temporary structure for one month at capacity would be
more than $5 million. The average stay for separated
kids is nearly two months.
6/21: Great stat
is through the roof. The National Association of
Manufacturers quarterly outlook published Tuesday showed 95.1%
of manufacturers surveyed said they had a positive outlook for
their companies, the highest in 20 years.
EFM- I bet it changes soon as a trade
war is eminent.
Universal Life Sales rose by 8% in 2017 and represented 59% of
all universal life sales.
Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy
Just like Merrill Lynch going back to
Admittedly things will not go back
the way they were but it will be next to impossible to know what
suitability and best interests really are. Will these rules work
in the real world. They haven't so far.
6/21: Study this- there will be a
quiz later. Pure technical analysis
6/21FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
Gary D. Halbert
Our national debt has swelled to a record $21.16
trillion as of this writing. That
includes debt held by the public ($15.4 trillion) and
intra-governmental debt ($5.7 trillion). At $21+ trillion, our
national debt is well above 100% of our Gross Domestic Product
of $19.97 trillion.
EFM- you ain't seen nothin' yet
percentage of men who are neither working nor looking for work
has risen substantially over the past several decades.
adult is put into one of three categories. Those who have a job
are employed. Those who are not working but are searching for a
job are unemployed. Those who are neither working nor
looking for work are counted as out of the labor
last group is ignored when calculating the unemployment rate
the share out of the labor force has fallen from 66 percent
in 1950 to 43 percent today.
1950, 14 percent of men were out of the labor force.
Today, that figure stands at 31 percent.
tendency for advances in technology to enhance the productivity
and wages of workers who have certain skills while reducing the
demand for those who don’t. Unskilled workers are left with the
choice of accepting lower wages or leaving the labor force. This
hypothesis is consistent with the fact that labor force
participation has fallen more for workers with lower
levels of educational attainment.
percent of inactive prime-age men are in a household that
received some form of government transfer payment.”
The one percenter holds most of the money
More than 150,000 homes and
businesses could face frequent high-tide flooding within 15
years. That could double by 2045.
losses in the United States could run into the hundreds of
billions of dollars unless rapid action is taken to
bring climate change under control, (not gonna happen)
Interactive graph Click to see
sea level rises more than 6 feet by the end of the century,
UCS estimated that the homes of more than 4.7 million people
will be at risk of chronic flooding. With commercial
properties included, that's more than $1 trillion in value,
and it doesn't take into account future development or rising
with 4 feet of sea level rise, the homes of more than 2
million people, plus many commercial properties, are likely to
face chronic flooding.
change will increase the risk of simultaneous crop failures
across the world's biggest corn-growing regions and lead to
less of the nutritionally critical vegetables that health
experts say people aren't getting enough of already.
prospects of food shocks and malnutrition with unchecked
global warming. While developing tropical countries would
likely be hardest hit, the destabilizing financial effects
could reach all corners of the globe,
of the world's corn goes into feeding livestock and making
biofuels, and swings in production can ripple through global
markets, leading to price spikes and food shortages,
particularly for the 800 million people living in extreme
an increase of 4 degrees Celsius—close to where the current
greenhouse gas emissions trajectory would take us by the end
of this century—could cut U.S. corn production by nearly
the researchers looked at the four biggest corn exporters—the
U.S., Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine—they found that the
likelihood of all four suffering yield losses of 10 percent or
more at the same time rises from about 7 percent at 2°C
warming to 86 percent at 4°C warming.
simultaneous shocks in the top-producing regions, which are
rare now, could have significant impacts on global markets and
drive up the price of food.
Lose Key Sources of Nutrition
about 2 billion people suffer from micronutrient deficiencies
linked to a lack of vegetable and legume consumption, while
worldwide per capita consumption of vegetables and fruits is
between 20 and 50 percent below recommended levels.
and legumes are vital components of a healthy, balanced and
sustainable diet and nutritional guidelines consistently
advise people to incorporate more vegetables and legumes into
their diet," said Pauline Scheelbeek, the lead author of the
study. "Our new analysis suggests, however, that this advice
conflicts with the potential impacts of environmental changes
that will decrease the availability of these important crops
unless action is taken."
EFM- Life will become far more
stressful as life simply gets tougher. Life expectancy
now reflects withholding (and eventual benefit adjustment) for
the earnings test (i.e., for people receiving benefits and
working while under full retirement age).
mortality table has been updated for the newly-released 2015
SSA period table. (It previously used the 2014 table, as that
was the newest available until this month.)
now allows for the selection of a specific “I will die at” age
rather than using a mortality table.
now allows for situations in which one of two spouses has
already filed, in order to get a suggestion for the other
spouse. (Important caveat: It does not currently have
“voluntary suspension” functionality, so if the ideal solution
is for the spouse who has already filed to suspend benefits
at/after full retirement age, the calculator won’t know to
Now, when you
load the page, the calculator automatically looks up the yield
on 20-year TIPS to use as the default discount rate.
In the last two weeks, a
common question about the calculator has been why it uses
mortality tables (to calculate a probability of being alive in
each given year) rather than simply assuming the user will die
precisely at their life expectancy. The answer has to do with
survivor benefits for married couples.
Specifically, assuming that
each person will die at their expected date often results in
an underestimation of the total amount of survivor benefits
that are likely to be received — and that could cause the
calculator to suggest a suboptimal strategy.
As one quick example,
consider a husband and wife, each born 4/15/1960. The husband
has PIA of $1,800, and the wife has PIA of $1,000. And let’s
assume that they are in average health.
The calculator as it’s
written now suggests that the husband files at 70 and the wife
files at 62 and 3 months. The total present value of this
strategy (i.e., the total amount of spending it can be
expected to fund over their lifetimes) is $549,164, of which $102,742
comes from survivor benefits.
Now what if we instead do the
analysis using fixed “death date” assumptions?
Well, if we look at the SSA 2015 period life table to
their life expectancies at age 62, we see that:
The husband has
a life expectancy of age 82, and
The wife has a
life expectancy of age 84.81.
If we used those as the fixed
“death dates,” the calculator would be calculating for 2.81
years of survivor benefits.
If filing at 70 the husband
has a retirement benefit of $2,232 per month. If filing at 62
and 3 months the wife has a retirement benefit of $712 per
month. The difference between $2,232 and $712 is $1,520, which
tells us that if the wife outlives the husband, she’ll get a
survivor benefit of $1,520 per month — or $18,240 per year.
Multiply $18,240 by the
“expected” 2.81 years, and we get a total survivor benefit of
$51,254, before discounting for time value of money.
When we discount that back to
age 62 with the 0.89% real rate the calculator is currently
using, we get a PV of $42,399.
In other words, with
this particular set of inputs, by assuming fixed dates of
death, the calculator would only assign about 41% of the
value ($42,399 rather than $102,742) to survivor benefits
that it really should.
In some cases (depending on
difference in ages, PIAs, etc) this might not matter much in
terms of the suggested strategy. But in other cases it will be
important. Accepting and accounting for uncertainty in death
dates is, in general, useful.
Why Is There
Such a Difference?
Even though each approach
(year-by-year mortality, or fixed death date assumption) is
using the same “expected” date at death, the year-by-year
mortality approach accounts for scenarios in which there’s a
long length of time where survivor benefits are relevant. For
example, it accounts for a scenario in which the husband dies
at 71 and the wife lives until 84. And a scenario in which the
husband dies at 72 and the wife lives until 83. And a scenario
in which the husband dies at 82 and the wife lives until 96,
such scenario is unlikely, but when taken together they add up
to a nontrivial probability. And in such scenarios, the payout
for strategies that maximized survivor benefits is quite a bit
higher than for strategies that did not do so. It would usually
be a mistake not to take that into account
6/18: Another reason civilization
might perish. Clean water will grow in scarcity as more and more
people populate our planet. 1,5 billion more people by 2050. Where
does the food come from? And the water might dry up in many areas
due to the climate change. Then what???
Tensions Rise as India’s Water Supply Runs Dangerously
By MARIA ABI-HABIB and HARI
600 million Indians, about half the population, face high to
extreme water scarcity conditions, with about 200,000 dying
every year from inadequate access to safe water,
about 3 months from meeting to see what North Korea will do in
regards to the stopping of war games.
It better be
That said, the
Nuclear Clock probably dropped back a bit. But if NK does
essentially nothing, the risk goes right back up
Do not mistake
the above as a meeting that should not have occurred. I
was all for it. But it needs a lot more than a photo op. Right
now the US has given up a lot
6/18: For every article talking about
the price of oil falling, there is another totally different
article touting the fact that oil will reach $100. And it has been
going on for a least several weeks
its lowest level in over 2 months. West
Texas Intermediate crude oil has touched $63.59 a barrel, its
lowest since April 10, as the OPEC cartel of oil producers mulls
a production hike of up to 600,000 barrels a day,
You will find additional commentary
on this issue below. Go to the site above and it will show just
how bad it could get. By 2050 they will do the costs and I bet
they will find there is no way to protect properties like this. It
would take trillions.And billions for New Orleans. And billions
more all over the country.. Not with several more millions of US
population (a total of 1.5 billion in the world) by/2050 and
hundreds of thousands more old people needing care. . Cannot
be done. Somewhere along the line life expectancy will DROP.
Real estate values will start to
really drop in the next 5 to 10 years. It will be impossible to
buy something and amortize the cost over 30/40 hold with a final
value of, quite possibly, zero
prices crashed on Friday as markets turned their focus to the
threat of over supply, with not even a supply outage in Libya
able to rebalance the market
6/16: ESG investment (Environmental,
Social, Governance Investing going through the roof
From just across the border to most
of South America: graft. drugs. murder. Not worth the effort to
try to invest.
The Dodd-Frank Act shifted regulatory
jurisdiction of mid-size investment advisers from the SEC to state
securities regulators for exogenous reasons. We find client
complaints increased 60% for affected advisers relative to those
continuing under federal oversight. Awarded damages doubled and
denial rates dropped 10%. Complaints increased more for advisers
with more past complaints and those serving older, less-educated
populations. Advisers further from and under more
resource-constrained regulators saw more complaints. Our results
suggest an increase in actual misconduct due changes in regulatory
jurisdiction and that differences across regulators is partly
driven by resource constraints.
Benefits from Productivity Growth? Direct and Indirect
Effects of Local TFP Growth on Wages, Rents, and
NBER Working Paper No. w24661
RICHARD HORNBECK, University
of Chicago - Booth School of Business
the local and aggregate effects of total factor productivity
growth on US workers' earnings, housing costs, and purchasing
power. Drawing on four alternative instrumental variables, we
consistently find that when a city experiences productivity
gains in manufacturing, there are substantial local increases
in employment and average earnings. For renters, increased
earnings are largely offset by increased cost of living; for
homeowners, the benefits are substantial. Strikingly,
local productivity growth reduces local inequality, as it raises
earnings of local less-skilled workers more than the earnings of
local more-skilled workers. This is due, in part, to lower
geographic mobility of less-skilled workers.However, local
productivity growth also has important general equilibrium
effects through worker mobility. We estimate that 38% of the
overall increase in workers' purchasing power occurs outside
cities directly affected by local TFP growth. The indirect
effects on worker earnings are substantially greater for
more-skilled workers, due to greater geographic mobility of
more-skilled workers, which increases inequality in other
cities. Neglecting these general equilibrium effects would both
understate the overall magnitude of benefits from productivity
growth and misstate their distributional consequences.Overall,
US workers benefit substantially from productivity growth.
Summing direct and indirect effects, we find that TFP growth
from 1980 to 1990 increased purchasing power for the average US
worker by 0.5-0.6% per year from 1980 to 2000. These gains do
not depend on a worker's education; rather, the benefits from
productivity growth mainly depend on where workers live.
ENRICO MORETTI, University of California, Berkeley -
Department of Economics, National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER), IZA Institute of Labor Economics
by Pokémon Go: The Economic and Human Cost of Using Apps
NBER Working Paper No. w24308
MARA FACCIO, Purdue
University - Krannert School of Management, National Bureau of
Economic Research (NBER), European Corporate Governance
Institute (ECGI), National University of Singapore (NUS) -
Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER)
accident reports for Tippecanoe County, Indiana, and exploiting
the introduction of the augmented reality game Pokémon GO as a
natural experiment, we document a disproportionate increase in
crashes and associated vehicular damage, injuries, and
fatalities in the vicinity of locations where users can play the
game while driving. We estimate the incremental county-wide cost
of users playing Pokémon GO while driving to be in the range of
$5.2 to $25.5 million over the 148 days following the
introduction of the game. Extrapolating these estimates to
nation-wide levels yields a total ranging from $2.0 to $7.3
JOHN J. MCCONNELL, Purdue University
A little town back east- and
thousands of others like it across the U.S. have little cash to
properly maintain roads and so potholes are a BIG problem. So
Dominos's comes along and offers $5,000 to help fix the roads and
they put down a little picture on the pothole. Some people harped
on the offer because it mixes politics and business and this and
that. But I bet a LOT of other people like the idea that their
front end stays more stable , etc,
etc. If corporations want to take on infrastructure repair- which
we desperately need but cannot afford- I say go for it..
costs for consumers have risen as the Federal Reserve continues
to tighten monetary policy, with interest rates on home, auto
and credit-card loans reaching multiyear highs in recent months.
2017, 46.3 million children in the United States were
enrolled at one point in one of the two programs, a number that
totals more than 60 percent of the more than 74 million children
in the United States.
EFM- not a clue that it was
6/14: Nevada by the Sea
Antarctic ice loss has tripled in a decade
melting ice sheet is now pouring more than 200
billion tons of ice into the ocean annually. If
the acceleration continues, some of scientists’ worst
fears about rising oceans could be realized, leaving
low-lying cities and communities with less time to
prepare than they had hoped.
EFM. It was probably going to cost at
least a trillion dollars by the end of the Century to save
New Orleans, New York, Florida, New Jersey from inundation. Now
take that amount and squeeze it in to the next 30 years..........
We are going to lose a lot of land
and have effectively no money to pay for dikes, etc considering
the huge deficit we are piling on already and another big
recession coming up.
If you have, say, a water heater that
'busts' and sends a deluge that causes significant damage, it is
probably covered by your homeowners insurance. But if you have a
small leak that was not fixed when known, the damage may not be
6/14: Got an annuity with a lot of
Consider a 1035 exchange to an
annuity that offers long term care coverage. Funds removed for LTC
are not taxable
You will need to read the short
had people try to imagine various scenarios, in general, bad
scenarios,” Kahneman explained. “The question was, at what point
do you think that you would want to bail out? That you would
want to change your mind?”
turns out, according to Kahneman, that most of the people —
even very wealthy people — are extremely loss averse.
is a limit to how much money they’re willing to put at risk,” he
said. “You ask, ‘How much fortune are you willing to lose?’
Quite frequently you get something on the order of 10%.”
Process described above (patent pending) is 12% for
recessions, It only works on mutual funds and ETFs
RE: Galvin/fiduciary, May 10, 2018
I have taught most of the securities and
insurance courses, real estate; done personal financial
planning for individuals, arbitration, expert witness, 40
years’ experience and on and on. (See EFMoody.com and
definitely check out Daily Commentary which covers the entire
gamut of personal planning and economic issues.) The book I
wrote in 2011, Financial Planning Fiduciary
Standards under Dodd Frank, goes through a litany
of subject areas that are not required for licensing.
My point is this: How can there be a rule
if the SEC has never required that brokers, Registered
Investment Advisers (and insurance agents) have NEVER been
required to have and know how to use a personal financial
calculator????? The word ‘financial adviser’ clearly implies a
competency to do miscellaneous calculations that a software
program does not encompass or even address. (See also
EFMoody.com/hp12c.html which provides additional insight.)
Galvin is correct in applying elements of a
fiduciary to advisors since, at the very core, you cannot be a
financial advisor or any fiduciary unless you can do formulas
outside the scope of the planning software. And there are nil
advisers that know the inputs and calculations of planning
software in any case.
What this really boils down to is that the
inability with a financial calculator belies the Best Interest
rule, Suitability et al. Cases can be brought simply stating
the obvious- brokers cannot even try to hide by the
suitability rule because without the capability herein
addressed, they have very little idea what they are doing and
therefore a great portion of their sales and marketing would
be corrupt. And managers of a B/D do not have such capability
since nothing is required for a series 24 et al.
Errold F Moody PhD MBA MSFP LLB BSCE
Knoche is the director of Chapter Care Services for the ALS
Association. She says caregivers face both emotional and
physical challenges when caring for a loved one who has been
diagnosed with an illness with no significant treatment or cure.
“It can be devastating for the person diagnosed and their loved
ones; however, many tools, techniques and therapies are
available to maintain quality of life,” Knoche says.
caregiver can work with their loved one to acknowledge that
significant changes in physical function and financial
requirements are on the horizon, she explains. This allows both
parties to develop a plan for future needs that is realistic and
a reasonable adjustment to important goals. Knoche says that
intimate relationships are cultivated during the times of
physical challenges, and that a caregiver should encourage a
loved one to participate in the activities they love, even if
adjustments to time, place or duration must be considered.
progresses at a different rate in everyone,” she adds. “Embrace
the successful quality of life experienced at each stage of the
explains that caregivers must recognize that frustration,
depression, anxiety and exhaustion are common emotions for those
with ALS, and especially as the disease progresses. Many of
these arise when physical abilities decrease and the need for
recommends caregivers learn about the equipment and assistive
technology available. One option is to connect with a local ALS
chapter or ALS Certified Treatment Center for advice. These
technologies are there to support the caregiver, as well as the
loved one, she notes. “Be proactive; investigate and acquire
equipment before it becomes an urgent issue,” Knoche says.
must consider equipment which keeps them safe, but also find
balance in their own daily lives while caring for someone with
ALS. She says communication is key, and that discussing personal
needs with the loved one is just a first step in self-care.
Another is cultivating an awareness of physical, emotional or
relational stress signals, then trying new methods of
relaxation. She says maintaining a sense of self is part of a
caregiver’s job, as is asking for support from family, friends
and community. “Recognize priorities may change multiple times
during this journey,” Knoche explains. “Accommodate the here and
says a caregiver’s quality of life in turn contributes to a
better quality of life for a loved one with ALS. It also helps a
loved one feel as less of a burden, and brings more consistent
care, hopefulness and better communication with everyone
asked for five best tips for caregivers of those with ALS,
Knoche offers the following:
an ALS diagnosis impacts the entire family, work and social
network of a loved one.
the progressive nature of ALS, and develop a strategy for how
to cope with changes.
challenges, investigate options and choose a plan of action or
accommodation. If it doesn’t work, change it.
the increased amount of time needed for everything in your
finally,- Accept help.
Yrs | 150% Participation | Euro Exposure
Based Income Note (CUSIP
partial protection (5% max loss, if index down 6%,
note loses 5%)
at maturity, point to point
6/13: Interest hikes and
Divorce Affect Retirement Security?”
by Alicia H. Munnell, Wenliang Hou,
and Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher
The brief’s key findings are:
- While the divorce rate
is no longer rising, about 40 percent of marriages still
end in divorce.
- The financial costs
can be high: a divorcing couple pays legal fees, may need
to sell illiquid assets, and has to cover the costs of two
– rather than one – residence.
- Not surprisingly, the
analysis finds that households with a past divorce are
much more likely to be at risk for maintaining their
standard of living in retirement.
- Interestingly, for one divorced group – single
women – the impact is negligible, perhaps because higher
child care costs are offset by retaining the house as an
6/13: Cleaning house? Use a robot? So
staff replaced by robots?
could replace as many as 10,000 human jobs at the banking
giant Citi within five years, its president told the Financial
got 20,000 operational roles. Over the next five years could
you make it 10,000?" Jamie
the president of Citi and chief executive of the bank's
institutional clients group, told the Financial Times
in an interview.
said the most likely areas for automation were in technology
and operations, which accounts for almost 40% of the headcount
at Citi's investment-banking arm. Forese described these roles
as the "most fertile for machine processing."
So there is the future for many, many firms. And the displaced
personnel will get jobs......WHERE? McDonalds? Nope-
they will be using robots. Some 'experts' suggest that the
robots will need handlers. Agreed. Maybe one human per 50
robots or per 100.
goes job security and the low unemployment. It might just be 5
years when a lot of this starts. Then it just will escalate
far beyond current expectations
6/13: Trump doesn't ask the G6 on
inviting Putin. Naughty. Doesn't tell South Korea and Japan that
he will stop 'war games" Stupid Sure it will save money but it
will destabilize that section of the world until denuclearization
is initiated very, very quickly..
exports have increased
sharply around the world, after the inauguration of a series of
export terminals in the past five years.
- Global trade in LNG rose to 38.2 billion
cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 10 percent increase from
the year before. It was also the largest annual increase on
record at 3.5 Bcf/d.
- The gains were led by the U.S. and
Australia, two countries that have seen a wave of investment in
LNG export projects.
2017, only 48 percent of employers offered life insurance to
their workers, a 23 percent decline from 2006. This continues a
steady of decline in employer-sponsored life insurance since
2006 (chart 1).
access to employer-sponsored life insurance has declined,
employees continue to recognize the value of life insurance.
EFM- I can understand some recent
difficulties with Dodd Frank and the fiduciary difficulties but
nothing comes to mind as a problem back to 2006
clouds over the global economy are 'darker by the day.'
International Monetary Fund head, Christine Lagarde, on Monday
said the "biggest and darkest cloud" over the global economy was
the risk of eroded confidence "by attempts to challenge the way
in which trade has been conducted, in which relationships have
been handled, and the way in which multilateral organizations
have been operating."
she is right but it won't sink in to Trump.
had a strained relationship with hope before my wife was
diagnosed with cancer. To me, hope was a high waiting for a low,
a fix with a nasty flip-side. Far from the precious entity
exalted by legions of poets and philosophers, hope was just
another coordinate on the pain/pleasure cycle existing in
infinite balance with its opposite. In the same way that
happiness alternates with sadness, or desire with loss, hope
alternates with fear. One requires that the other exist. Hope
was for suckers, and I was no sucker.
so I reasoned. The times I didn’t need hope, that is. But when
life would clobber me over the head with misfortune, there I
was, clinging to hope like a dear, misunderstood friend.
my wife’s diagnosis, however, my relationship with hope is no
longer strained. It’s been severed completely. I’ve abandoned
hope and in the process, have met a new friend—peace.
abandon hope is to trample the plotline of feel-good movies, to
renounce the rhetoric of sweating preachers, and to earn puzzled
looks from hopers everywhere. Hope soothes and inspires. It
builds churches and sells books. Hope is widely thought to be
the last coin in our pocket, the one thing we can never afford
what is hope, exactly? What does it look like away from the
flickering glow of votive candles?
hope just wishful thinking? Isn’t it just slapping a happy
ending on an unhappy beginning?
want to be happy all the time, and why not? It beats sad,
lonely, and a host of other unpleasant but inevitable human
conditions. When we’re not happy, we hope. We paint a bright
future with our thoughts and wait for it to materialize. However
rickety, this logic makes just enough sense to ease a frightened
in hopeful thinking is the mistaken notion that we are separate
entities existing outside the flow of an exquisitely connected
universe, that we are as in control of our destinies as we are
our individual retirement accounts. Hope is our silent prayer
that misfortune is meant for one of the other six and a half
billion people in the world, but not us.
small doses, hope is not toxic. It only nips or stings. When our
home team loses, when no one asks us to dance, when we tear up
lottery tickets, our hopes are dashed and we’re left to survey
the space between our expectations and reality. That space grows
into an abyss for those attempting to stall reality with hopeful
thoughts during times of peril. Thoughts eventually dissolve,
while reality stands pat. We blink, and it’s still there. Rays
of hope meant to banish our darkest fears in the end only
illuminate them, and we crumple into a state of surrender.
Anyway, I did.
was where I stumbled into peace. I didn’t give up on life—I just
stopped trying to outwit it. Surrender meant discarding the idea
that life is always supposed to be wonderful; it’s just supposed
to be life.
spent hoping for happier days is time spent turning away from
life in its infinite poses of glory—the elegant curve of my
wife’s newly hairless head, the game smile poking through her
fatigued expression, the mountain of get well cards rising above
a sea of orange pill bottles. Beauty borne from tragedy acquires
a sacred dimension that can only be witnessed by a surrendered
mind—a mind that isn’t chasing after the next happy face moment.
picture my wife with hair again, to imagine her digging in the
garden or strutting back off to work is to add time where none
is needed—to ignore the beauty right under my nose, and to allow
futile hope to intrude on an otherwise peaceful day.
Ptacek is a caregiver for his wife who is living with ovarian
cancer. You can read more of his essays on his Web site
giants AstraZeneca and Eli Lilly have scrapped two late-stage
trials of an experimental Alzheimer’s drug they were
this on the heels of the same thing with three other firms in
the last 6 months. Nothing can reverse the steady decline of the
6/12: the rating of the company was
not shown but it gives an idea of how fixed rates have gone up in
2018. These are walkaway annuities. Hold for the period and simply
pick up the money
3.60% Guaranteed for
3.85% Guaranteed for
6/12: I can count- or can I????
are the ways humans are known to assess numbers. Below five,
we’re able to subitize,
or rapidly judge numbers of items without counting. Between six
and ten, we count. Above ten, we estimate, with decreasing
2000 index funds made up 7.5% of equity mutual-fund assets. In
2017 they accounted for more than 21%. The rise of index
investing means fewer Americans are paying sizable fees to
portfolio managers, who generally fail to beat the market. This
trend has reduced expense ratios significantly.
funds are increasingly finding that they can generate income
from nonfee sources. In fiscal 2017, the Vanguard Total Stock
Market Index Fund earned more than 63% of its expenses by
lending securities. The demand for securities loans has limits,
but growth in that market will allow an increasing number of
funds to offset some or all of their expenses through loan
free funds won’t solve America’s retirement-savings problems,
they could make a meaningful difference. American workers
typically pay tens of thousands of dollars in fees over a
lifetime of saving for retirement.
free?? not in real life. What I am referring to is that over a
three decade period there will be 3 to 4 recessions. Each with a
loss of, say, 50%. on the S&P (I do not think that
unreasonable given an entirely new world technical order that
started around 1995 with the advent of personal computers and
the internet. And economics in upheaval with the same type of
risks- probably greater (much like the weather). So the average
investor (average means not a clue to what to knowledgeably
?pick view a fund over time) is going to do what. Use a free
balanced fund?. For at least the first 10 years the bond side is
going to be hurt due to raises in interest rates. Maybe a zero
return (people with little money will not be privy to offsetting
tactics). The equities side might produce 6%- maybe 7%. Only to
what- lose 50% of the value? Say 4 times over 30 years? That is
not good investing but the industry has settled as fait compli
the 50% loss where little that can be done- certainly for the
bulk of workers who have little funds to entice an adviser. .The
amount to be lost(?) in the worst case scenario is about 12%..
I will describe it more fully- hopefully very shortly. I am way
behind but intend to put the second phase of the Process up
later this week. the third phase describes how to get a better
return with far less risk. No smoke and mirrors. Really!!!
EFM- In the past, the inverted curve has been essentially a 100%
indicator of an upcoming recession. Doesn't say when (generally
around 12 to 14 months). nor how bad nor how long. And it seems to
be viable only in America. . But caution is advised due to the
'new' economics of funneling huge amounts on dollars into the
economy to get it going again. Might that screw up the 100%??
Possibly. But one must stay on the lookout.
to LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute’s analysis of the Federal
Reserve Board’s 2016 Survey of Consumer Finance data, there are
7.6 million single pre-retirees and retirees aged 55 or older
in the U.S. with investable assets of $100,000 or more —
nearly two-thirds of them are single women. In addition,
single pre-retirees and retirees control $6 trillion in
Women Retirees Feel Less Confident
new LIMRA SRI study of more than 1,100 single retirees with
annual incomes of at least $35,000 finds single retirees —
particularly single women retirees — feel less secure about
their financial security in retirement and are more concerned
about outliving their savings than those who are married or have
partners. These concerns are more pronounced with single women
retirees. More than 4 in 10 single retired women worry that
their savings and investments will not last if they live to be
90 years old, compared with just 3 in 10 single retired men.
from higher longevity risks — especially for women — there are
other reasons for low retirement confidence: (1) single retirees
may have no one to rely on; (2) single retirees spend
proportionately more of their income on essential expenses such
as housing, food and utilities than couples do; and (3) many
single retirees do not own their primary residences. The study
shows that many single retired women underestimated their
expected expenses primarily because of higher expenditures for
housing and the need to provide financial support to (mostly
younger) family members.
Foundation for Suicide Prevention reports that
123 people die by suicide every day
About 4.3 million of the 18 million
workers in the 55-64 age bracket are likely to live in poverty
once they reach 65,
6/10: Argentina gets a big fat loan. Is kicking the can overtaking
what happened in Europe????
The International Monetary Fund has come to
Argentina’s rescue. The country has agreed to a $50bn financing deal with the fund. The
size of the loan was a pleasant surprise for investors, who
had speculated it would be closer to $30bn. But markets were still lower ahead of a
potentially fraught G7 summit on Friday in Canada.
president Mauricio Macri’s $50bn bet comes with a price, writes our Latin America editor, primarily
the IMF’s conditions. John Authers takes a wider look at emerging markets under strain, including Brazil’s
currency coming under remorseless attack.
I gave up on South America a long time ago. Too much ineptness
coupled with graft
6/9: Needs repeating women
now receive more bachelor’s and master’s degrees
globally than their male counterparts? In
the United States, they also receive more doctoral degrees.
also have high emotional intelligence. In a quantitative review involving
more than 23,000 participants in 26 cultures, researchers found
that women are more sensitive, considerate and humble than
men — “arguably one of the least counter-intuitive
findings in the social sciences
According to a U.S.-based survey,
nearly 50% of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD)
are already in the moderate to severe stages when
See below for common symptoms
associated with moderate and severe stages of the
Moderate to Severe
or getting lost
about one's own
not recognize oneself
moaning, or grunting
help with all
activities of daily
For more information on
moderate and severe Alzheimer’s
Suicide rates are rising
sharply in most of the U.S. In 2016, there
were more than twice as many suicides than
Suicide rates increased in 49 states between 1999 and 2016,
according to a report released Thursday by the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The
increases were seen across sex, age, race and
ethnicity. In half of all states, the increase was
30 percent or more.
In 2016, there were almost 45,000 suicides in the United States
— more than twice the number of homicides. Suicide
is now the 10th leading cause of death overall in
America, and the second leading cause of death for
people between the ages of 10 and 34.
Anne Schuchat, the CDC’s principal deputy director, called the
data “disturbing” and said, “the widespread nature
of the increase, in every state but one, really
suggests that this is a national problem hitting
EFM- Separately. 22/24 members of the
armed forces commit suicide every day.
are 7.6 million single pre-retirees and retirees aged 55 or
older in the U.S. with investable assets of $100,000 or more —
nearly two-thirds of them are single women. In addition, single
pre-retirees and retirees control $6 trillion in investable
6/7:Report links early Social Security
claiming to poverty
claiming of Social Security benefits coincides with an
increase in poverty and income inequality among the
elderly, according to a report from the National Bureau of
Economic Research. A 1961 law change that lets people
claim at age 62 has reduced Social Security income in
male-headed retired households by a median 3%, while
retirees in the lowest quarter of income distribution has
seen a 4% reduction,
go for a ride
new report from
the Governors Highway Safety Association (GHSA) found that in
2016, 44% of fatally-injured drivers with known results
tested positive for drugs, up from 28% just 10 years prior.
More than half of these drivers had marijuana, opioids or a
combination of the two in their system.
video on bonds (45min) by PIMCO. Stuff on active and passive
you have never heard but are relatively easy to comprehend.
Security’s Financial Outlook: The 2018
Update in Perspective”
by Alicia H.
The brief's key
2018 Trustees Report shows virtually no
Security’s 75-year deficit ticked up
from 2.83 percent to 2.84 percent of
fund exhaustion is still 2034, after
which payroll taxes still cover about
three quarters of promised benefits.
shortfall is manageable, but action
should be taken soon to equitably share
the burden among cohorts, restore public
confidence, and give people time to
concern is whether the declining
fertility rate is a lingering effect of
the Great Recession or a permanent shift
that could worsen Social Security’s
This brief is available here.
More bubbles to pop globally????
home sales plunged 22% in May compared to a year ago,
to 7,834 homes. The irony is that “housing
affordability” is fundamentally impacted by prices and
- That's not photoshop- it's an actual drawing on the
pavement with chalk
United States lost nearly 8.7 million jobs in the Great
Recession and its aftermath. It has gained 18.9 million
since then — a powerful rebound that belied fears of
another “jobless recovery.” (Net growth was needed just to
keep pace with the working-age population, which has increased
by about 10 million during the same period.)
I thought that the PBGC would do better as the economy
improved. Report: Pension insurance fund might
be insolvent in 7 years
report from the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. says there's a
more than 90% chance that its Multiemployer Insurance
Program will run out of money by the end of fiscal 2025.
The PBGC's Single-Employer Program is in better shape,
according to the report, and is expected to emerge from
deficit sometime in fiscal 2019.
6/6 TDFsTDF Investor Behavior Improves, But Allocation Mistakes Remain Common
reports that more than half of 401(k) participants are now
invested in a single target-date fund (TDF), compared to
only 13% just a decade years ago.... Vanguard researchers
estimate that 77% of the participants on the firm's
recordkeeping platform will be invested in a single TDF by
2022.... [W]hen constructing their own retirement
portfolios, about 10% of participants still tend to hold
extreme allocations -- defined here as holding either 0% or
100% equities in a retirement-focused portfolio."
But TDFs go to bonds as investor gets older. With returns
being nil (still) this can be a recipe for disaster if any
shortfall occurred (recessions) This appears to be very
6/6: If one
acts under DOL rules via retirement plans they will be treated
as fiduciaries How Brokers and Retirement Plan Consultants Differ
brokers, who collectively still advise millions of plan
sponsors nationwide, play a relatively narrow role in managing
retirement plans. Their focus, essentially, is limited to
selecting the investments that optimize returns given the
details of the plan itself. Under the proposed DOL
fiduciary rule, any financial professional advising
retirement plans would also have to assume the
responsibility of fiduciary.... In addition to sharing
the same fund selection responsibilities taken on by brokers,
consultants can also advise plan sponsors on how to maintain
regulatory compliance, increase plan participation and
minimize risk for participants. Consultants are
trust fund will run out of money in 2025.
6/6 Not reviewedTips
Choosing a Major - https://www.affordablecollegesonline.org/college-resource-center/choosing-a-major/
Online Colleges - https://www.accreditedschoolsonline.org/online-colleges/
Surviving Freshman Year - https://www.accreditedschoolsonline.org/resources/surviving-first-year-college/
Visiting and Choosing a College - https://www.affordablecollegesonline.org/college-resource-center/visiting-colleges/
Guide - https://www.affordablecollegesonline.org/college-resource-center/act-resource-guide/
Macron's priceless comment about talking with Trump.
better off not knowing’
Mr Macron said that his phone calls with Donald Trump
and other world leaders are just like sausages: better not
explain what’s inside. His
comments were in response to a CNN report saying that a phone
call between Mr Macron and Mr Trump last week had been “terrible”.
Millennials are overtaking everyone and particularly
in developing nations
Social Security- don't know why it took so long in addressing
the first time since 1982, Social
Security this year will have to tap into its nearly $3T
trust fund to cover benefits of the program. That is
three years sooner than expected a year ago, partly due to
lower economic growth projections, according to the
latest annual report. The program's income comes from tax
revenue and interest from its trust fund.
Analysis of Retirement Models to Improve Portability and
better understand the challenges of the 401(k) system and its
coverage and to assess possible strategies to improve it, this
report presents a three-part analysis. The first part focuses on
401(k)s and documents the extent and nature of portability, the
flow of money to IRAs, and leakage from both systems. It
summarizes resulting problems and potential solutions. But
beyond the existing 401(k) system, a coverage gap remains. So,
the second part of the analysis identifies the nature of the
coverage gap among wage and salary employees and assesses
proposed solutions. But these solutions would not affect the 16
percent of workers in non-standard employment. Therefore, the
third part of the analysis looks at options for covering these
objective of this report is to assess and present a wide –
though not comprehensive – range of available options by
examining and summarizing existing proposals and, where
relevant, examples from other countries.
ask your spouse for a plate, and he hands you a cup.
spouse seems to get “stuck” on the same word or phrase.
spouse can say words, but her sentences don’t make sense.
Aphasia: a language disorder that results from damage to parts
of the brain. It can affect all modes of language including
speaking, writing, gesturing, understanding what others say,
understanding writing, and using numbers. Aphasia often hides
people’s thoughts, ideas, personality, intelligence and
competence – they know what they want to say, but can’t always
get the words out.
is the leading cause of aphasia; however, it also can result
from brain tumors, head injuries, brain infections, and other
conditions of the brain.
who suffer from aphasia can have difficulty understanding
others, particularly strangers. Or, they can follow the gist of
a conversation, but lose track easily, or forget the beginning
of a message before reaching the end of it. They may be able to
say individual words, or parts of words, but struggle to
complete the entire word or sentence. Or, they may speak
nonsense quickly. And background noise or lively conversation
among a group of people can really exacerbate the difficulty
they have understanding conversations.
times, too, a person with aphasia is so focused on themselves,
they are unable to see that their caregiver is overwhelmed. The
person with aphasia can’t help it; they’ve lost a lot of control
in their lives between the loss of communication and physical
disabilities. They are just trying to survive,” says Mimi Block,
M.S., CCC-SLP, clinical services manager, University of Michigan
even if they could recognize how much their caregiver is dealing
with, they cannot express their gratitude or appreciation,” she
can be an enormously frustrating condition, for both the
individual and the caregiver.
of Michigan Aphasia Program (UMAP) is
the oldest and most effective program of its kind in North
America for the treatment of aphasia. Established in 1947 to
assist World War II veterans who sustained injuries in combat,
UMAP has successfully treated thousands of individuals, offering
as much speech-language therapy during a six-week session as a
person would receive in one year of traditional therapy.
education and support is a critical component of the UMAP.
past summer, UMAP gave Robin Cox, wife of a (retired) National
Guard Lieutenant Colonel with aphasia, the tools to help her
husband with his therapy and the insight to help herself as his
caregiver. Her husband Mark suffered a stroke in March 2009,
just 30 days before he was due to be deployed to Afghanistan.
know it’s a cliché, but UMAP taught me this is not the end of
the world, there is light at the end of the tunnel, and the
little progress we make each day brings us that much closer to
our goals,” Robin Cox said. “And those little improvements are
exponentially more important for the caregiver,” she added.
“They bring us ten times the joy.”
morning, not too long ago, Mark found his glasses after looking
for them for quite some time.
said, ‘I found them’ and I said, ‘Say that again!’ and he did!
And then I made him say it again. It was one whole, complete
sentence. It’s those little moments you must celebrate,” Cox
the six-week session at UMAP, there are five caregiver
meetings which focus on:
a better understanding of aphasia, and the physical
disabilities associated with a stroke (the most common cause
conversation and other ways to communicate with people who
communication techniques and strategies
new communication skills using facilitative conversation
for the future
education is essential for the well-being of the loved one with
aphasia and all the family members,” Block says. “The caregiver
needs to connect with the speech-language pathologist who sees
their loved one to learn about aphasia and specific techniques
to communicate with him or her.”
prompt conversation, Block encourages caregivers to use “topic
cards,” which are lists of words or pictures—like family,
sports, friends, birthdates, hobbies, maps, a calendar—as a
starting point to determine what the person wants to talk about.
also the WH Chart—who, what, when, where and why, that can be
used to get the person thinking in terms of sentence structure,”
Block said. “The more information that’s available to them, the
more successful they will be.”
night when Mark Cox was trying to tell his wife Robin to change
his schedule that week, she said they both “went round and round
and round, and started to get flustered” until she resorted to
using a calendar and writing down days of the week and
appointments to clarify what her husband was trying to do.
have to keep digging to find the right way to get the point
across,” Robin Cox says. “It’s more than just talking. You can
use pictures, calendars or write words on paper. You’ve got to
take a deep breath and be patient. Yelling isn’t going to do it.
You have to try all of your options.”
also encourages caregivers to be advocates for their loved ones,
providing them with the encouragement and motivation to continue
on the road of recovery with realistic goals and expectations,
and a better ability to communicate in their day-to-day living.
Smith, whose husband Louis suffered a stroke in 2005 and has
aphasia, is in two therapy programs, including UMAP. She
accompanies Louis to all of his therapy sessions, and either
watches them or participates in them directly.
watch to see what the therapists are doing, and I insert their
techniques into our daily routine at home,” she said.
Smith also tries to keep their lives as normal as possible.
Louis is a legendary jazz trumpeter with an international
reputation and many major recordings, and she regularly takes
him to jazz festivals and clubs where he can interact with other
musicians. They’ve always been great travelers, she said, and
they go to Paris in October each year and to Mexico for two
months in the winter.
never get someone to ‘sit’ with him. We’ve always done things
together,” she said.
Cox recently encouraged her husband to go with her to their
11-year-old son’s football game.
didn’t want to go at first. Since he had his stroke, he’s lost
some endurance, too. But he ended up staying for the whole game.
I think Mark realized he can socialize, and he can talk with
others—not just his wife, his brothers, or people who are close
to him. Physically, he was tired, but it was great for his
was put out of his comfort zone. I think that’s what a caregiver
does. We try this, and if it doesn’t work, we’ll try something
else,” Cox said.
is so important to keep trying,” says Joyce Zeigler, whose
husband Mack suffered a stroke in 2004 and who has participated
in two UMAP sessions in 2006 and 2008.
continues to make progress. I encourage people with aphasia and
their loved ones to be patient and have hope. Mack and I have
faith that more progress is in his future. We take it a day at a
time and look forward to each day.”
Smith adds, “You must understand it takes a long time to have
success. You have to keep working and working, and never give
up. You’ve got to stick with it.”
least they are boneless
you have flood insurance and your home gets damaged or
destroyed by mudflow, you’re probably going to be covered.
Say what? Oh, it is not a mud SLIDE
to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), “a mudflow is
a river of liquid mud similar in consistency to a milkshake.
Mudslides, on the
other hand, are more solid and more closely resemble a cake.”
are made of rock, earth and other debris saturated with water,
and they can occur in any part of the United States. They can
flow rapidly, striking with little or no warning at avalanche
speeds. They also can travel several miles from their source,
growing in size as they pick up trees and other materials.
similar, knowing exactly which one struck a home is a very big
deal. According to the nonprofit Insurance Information
Institute, mudflow damage is excluded from the typical
homeowners policy but is covered by the NFIP, which is an
additional insurance policy administered by FEMA and
underwritten by the federal government. In other words, if
you have flood insurance and your home gets damaged or destroyed
by mudflow, you’re probably going to be covered.
coverage purchase required
standard policy is not going to cover flood, so if you think
your home might be exposed to mudflow you’ll want to purchase
that additional NFIP coverage,”
was never licensed in P&C but I doubt but few agents knew
of this. I was clueless. I mean what happens if it moves like
6/6: Record 95.9 Million
Americans Are No Longer In The Labor Force
Promises and Pitfalls of Robo-Advising"
8th Miami Behavioral Finance Conference 2017
FRANCESCO D'ACUNTO, University
of Maryland - Robert H. Smith School of Business
NAGPURNANAND PRABHALA, University of Maryland - Robert H.
Smith School of Business
ALBERTO ROSSI, University of Maryland - Department
a robo-advising portfolio optimizer that constructs tailored
strategies based on investors' holdings and preferences.
Adopters are similar to non-adopters in terms of demographics,
but have more assets under management, trade more, and have
higher risk-adjusted performance. The robo-advising tool has
opposite effects across investors with different levels of
diversification before adoption. It increases portfolio
diversification and decreases volatility for those that held
less than 5 stocks before adoption. These investors'
portfolios perform better after using the tool. At the same
time, robo-advising barely affects diversification for
investors that held more than 10 stocks before adoption.
These investors trade more after adoption with no effect on
average performance. For all investors, robo-advising
reduces -- but does not fully eliminate -- pervasive
behavioral biases such as the disposition effect, trend
chasing, and the rank effect, and increases attention based
on online account logins. Our results emphasize the
promises and pitfalls of robo-advising tools, which are
becoming ubiquitous all over the world.
The rig counts are due to higher prices
today’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the
critical figures and data in the energy markets this
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this
week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top
news events taking place in the global energy complex over the
past few days. We hope you enjoy.
fuel consumption for electricity generation in the U.S.
declined to 22.5 quadrillion BTUs in 2017, the lowest level
- The decline of coal and the near
elimination of oil from the electricity sector is somewhat
offset by the rise of natural gas, but efficiency and
renewables have led to an overall decline in fossil fuel use.
- Last year, coal consumption fell to its
lowest level since 1982.
- Natural gas, even though it too is a
fossil fuel, burns more efficiently than coal. That means the
generation-weighted average efficiency of the electricity mix
has significantly improved. According to the EIA,
fossil fuel plants in the U.S. required 10,400 BTUs of primary
energy to produce a kilowatt-hour in 1994, but by 2017, that
figure had fallen to just 9,400 BTUs.
economic expansion that began in mid-2009 and already ranks as
the second-longest in American history most likely will
end in 2020 as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to
cool off an overheating economy, according to
forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.
for the most likely primary cause of the next downturn, 62%
selected an overheating economy leading to Fed tightening.
Other options picked by at least 5% of economists surveyed
were a financial crisis, the bursting of an asset bubble, a
fiscal crisis or disruptions to international trade.
war could kill hundreds of thousands of jobs. "The
tariffs and retaliation would increase U.S. steel employment
and non-ferrous metals (primarily aluminum) employment by
26,346 jobs, but cost a net of 495,136 jobs throughout the
rest of the economy, for a total net loss of nearly 470,000
A trade war generally ends badly
Though More Comfortable with Volatility, Americans Still Lean Toward
Protecting Retirement Savings
of Americans said they are comfortable with market conditions
and ready to invest -- up from 26% in 2015. 37% admit that
recent volatility is making them anxious about their nest egg.
57% are willing to give up potential gains for a product that
protects a portion of their retirement savings -- up from 48%
that helps financially disadvantaged families with finding
assistance programs. Our directory lists assistance programs
that help with utility, energy, mortgage, rent, medication,
education and medical bills.
- Despite the tough rate
hike talk, a wholly different scene is being set, one that
allows the Fed even more leeway in the event inflation
- So, this inflation
scare is no head fake? Well, look again. Future New Orders
are moving in the exact opposite direction, meaning there’s
precious little faith on manufacturers’ part that the need
to continue building stocks will be necessary.
- The fuel to this fire
came in the form of tariff and trade war fear disruption
which triggered a short-run spike in New Orders
6/4:■ G7 countries condemn US in rebuke over
trade is bound to take centre stage this year and at present
there appears to be every chance it will end with acrimony
just as it did last year. The US president has already put
steep tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminium exports and
given European nations and Canada a month’s stay before doing
the same. None of these countries feel they need to bend in
the face of what they see as blackmail and a tit-for-tat
tariff escalation is threatened.
they must get an agreement worked out since a trade war-
amongst everything else- would lead to a global meltdown
Assad is going to meet Kim Jong Un
is going to be a bitter pill for Trump- actually any American.
You have one terrorist joining in solidarity(?) with another. Maybe
Assad takes Un's nuclear missiles and Un gets chemical
weapons. Problems solved
Opioids Are Now Responsible for 1 in 5 Deaths Among
2016, one in 65 deaths in the United States involved opioids
— and among younger adults, that number skyrocketed to one
in five, according to a new study
And it gets worse
overall death rate for children between ages 10 and 19 fell by
33% between 1999 and 2013. But from 2013 to 2016, the
report says, it crept back up by 12% — in large part because
of a sizable increase in injury deaths
Medical Spending of Retirees READ THIS
dynamic models of health, mortality, and out-of-pocket
medical spending (both inclusive and net of Medicaid
payments), we estimate the distribution of lifetime
medical spending that retired U.S. households face over
the remainder of their lives. We find that at age
70, households will on average incur $122,000
in medical spending, including Medicaid payments, over
their remaining lives. At the top tail, 5 percent of
households will incur more than $300,000, and 1 percent of
households will incur over $600,000 in medical spending
inclusive of Medicaid. The level and the dispersion of
this spending diminish only slowly with age. Although
permanent income, initial health, and initial marital
status have large effects on this spending, much of the
dispersion in lifetime spending is due to events realized
later in life. Medicaid covers the majority of the
lifetime costs of the poorest households and significantly
reduces their risk.
one of the world's largest consumers of plastic bags, which
kill hundreds of marine creatures living near the country's
popular beaches each year.
"I feel sorry
for the animal that didn't do anything wrong but has to bear
the brunt of human actions,"
are more laws now attempting to reduce plastic garbage but I
think it is too late to save a lot of the oceans
they may not send us anymore ice
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told NBC News Friday that he
rejects the Trump administration's reason for imposing tariffs
on Canadian steel and aluminum and noted his country is a
close military ally of the U.S.
idea that we are somehow a national security threat to the
United States is quite frankly insulting and unacceptable
6/3:AARP Health Care
spread between WTI and Brent hit a three year high this week
as bottlenecks in the U.S. drove WTI downwards, adding to the
sense of uncertainty in oil markets as the next OPEC meeting
a title from the New Yorker: The
New Estimate of Deaths in Puerto Rico Reflects a Broader and
thought the original death total was out of whack but I had no
data to say otherwise. Harvard's study had the data. They
found that there were four thousand six hundred and
sixty-five excess deaths
Does the data make a difference to mainstream America????
Here’s how much more cable and broadcast news talked about Roseanne than
6/3: I have
used Genworth's site for years regarding long term care.
Looks to me it is even better now. So go there to get a lot of
your questions answered
A LOT of experts will be watching this. No question it
will help some but I will be curious if a lot of money goes to
cigarettes, booze and drugs. (Yes I am cynical)
US town trials free cash
Finland has tried — and scrapped — the free cash experiment.
Now a poor and desperate Californian town
will become the first in the US to attempt it. The simple
trial will be watched by governments and social scientists
around the world. (NYT)
6/3: $0 premium Medicare
you believe it’s possible to get all your health care
coverage through a Medicare Advantage plan and not pay a
monthly premium? Well, you can, and I want to give you the
full scoop on how you can get quality coverage with no
The Truth Behind $0 Premium Plans
Medicare Advantage plans (known as Part C plans) combine
your Original Medicare Part A and B benefits into one plan.
It provides you access to a network of doctors and
hospitals, and may include additional benefits like Part D
prescription drugs, a gym membership, vision, dental, and
hearing aid coverage. For you this means that a private
insurer, like Independence Blue Cross, pays for all of the
Medicare covered services received in-network, provides you
additional benefits not covered by Original Medicare, and
reduces any paperwork you may have, such as submitting
claims. By enrolling in a Part C plan, you are not
disenrolling or forfeiting Original Medicare benefits. Even
though you are enrolled in a Part C plan, you are still
enrolled in Original Medicare, and you must continue to pay
your Medicare Part B premium.
How is a $0 Premium Plan Possible?
When private insurers offer Medicare Advantage plans, the
government reimburses the private insurer to deliver and
cover the services that Original Medicare would cover within
the private insurer’s network. The reimbursement that the
private insurers receive is intended to cover the entire
plan premium and provide quality coverage plus added
benefits not provided by Original Medicare.
international tragedy on the Muslim
Rohingya population in Burma
ENGINEERED a horrific campaign of ethnic cleansing against
the Muslim Rohingya minority, the Burmese military has
turned its attention to another persecuted group. An offensive
against the mostly Christian
Kachin people near Burma’s northern
border is underway.
as the military is known, feels free to pursue this genocidal
policy because it has suffered virtually no consequences for
what human rights groups and senior U.N. officials describe as
blatant crimes against humanity.
leader, Aung San Suu Kyi,
has failed to condemn the ethnic cleansing, and occasionally
even defended it.
if she can win a Nobel prize for peace, could they make the
same mistake with Trump???
6/2: US town trials free cash
Finland has tried — and scrapped — the free cash experiment.
Now a poor and desperate Californian town
will become the first in the US to attempt it. The simple
trial will be watched by governments and social scientists
around the world. (NYT)
I will be interested in how such money will be
spent. Will it be cigarettes, liquor and drugs???? I will
say that those ;"necessities will cost a minimum of
25% and a maximum of 39% of the gift.
jobs added in May; unemployment rate falls to
U.S. economy added a robust 223,000 jobs in the
month of May, according to figures released Friday
by the Department of Labor, and the unemployment
rate fell slightly to 3.8 percent. Wage growth
remained a sticking point in the mainly positive
jobs report, with hourly pay up by only 2.7
percent year on year. But with inflation at just
over 2 percent, workers are barely feeling any net
Some say that this could lead to the destruction of the EU.
Italy will be led by populists who deeply oppose the
euro. The coalition just
got presidential approval after a seesaw week that
If the EU is hurt, Europe implodes and the world has a global
recession that will take longer than 2008 to fix
fundamental duties of a fiduciary under the common
law of trusts are the duties of loyalty and of
prudence. With respect to the latter, a plan
fiduciary under the Employee Retirement Income
Security Act must act with “the care, skill,
prudence and diligence under the circumstances
that a prudent man would use.” Read more >
As regards investing- would a prudent man have to have a
financial calculator??????? What's you
6/1:Is Your Workplace Prepared for the Opioid Epidemic?
4 in 10 opioid addicts are covered by large employer health
plans. The cost of treatment for opioid addiction was $2.6
billion in 2016. The average employer spends $19,000 per
year, per employee for treatment related to opioid
addiction.... What employers can do ... How health insurance
providers can work with employers."
6/1:So, Just How Much Do Recent Grads’
Know About Retirement Investment ?
at the total population, 88% of investors do not believe
recent grads are very knowledgeable about saving and
investing for retirement
reveal a pronounced divide between generations when it comes
to how respondents perceive the financial knowledge of
6/1:Firm warns many target-date funds
carrying too much risk
services provider SEI found many target-date funds are
taking on too much risk, with the average 2020 fund still
having more than half of its assets allocated to equities.
SEI's Jake Tshudy recommends advisers run an analysis to
assess a fund's suitability based on a client's retirement
age, investing style and expected Social Security benefits.
Look at top of this site and you will see commentary on Target
date funds. Yucky in most cases
Sequence of returns
two-thirds of people who experience a stroke also find
themselves battling depression. It can be attributed to a
variety of causes including the emotions due to physical
losses or simply the overwhelming reality of going through
the therapy needed to recover. Depression after a stroke can
also stem from biochemical changes in the brain. A brain
injury can interfere with a person’s previously normal
will expect a loved one to be sad after a stroke. It’s
important they know the symptoms of depression and those of
apathy, the feeling of indifference or not having emotions
at all. An apathetic person is satisfied and content doing
nothing, and isn’t bothered by it. This is often seen in
those who have had right-brain strokes.
however, is marked by feelings of sadness or discouragement
and even suicidal thoughts. The symptoms of depression
following a stroke are the same as from any other cause. If
extreme sadness and hopelessness persist for longer than two
weeks, or the person has no interest in therapy, socializing
or struggles to concentrate, a caregiver should start to
consider seeking help. Depression doesn’t appear at a set
time; it can show up weeks or months after the stroke
doesn’t just affect the loved one either. Family caregivers
in general already face a high risk of developing
depression. Those who are caring for people recovering from
stroke are not only dealing with challenges in mobility,
care and communication, but a loved one’s depression adds an
additional burden that can lead to the caregiver developing
a depression of their own. Research from the American Stroke
Association reveals that 30 to 33 percent of caregivers were
depressed at their loved one’s 18-month post-stroke checkup
study published in the 2011 journal Neurology showed that
successfully treating depression in both caregiver and loved
one also helps the person’s recovery from stroke. The same
study, funded by the National Institute of Neurological
Disorders and Stroke, gave industry leaders proof that the
correlation between stroke and depression is real, and
depression can cause an even greater impact on quality of
life than physical/mental impairments from the stroke
National Institute of Health says most people dealing with
depression following a stroke do not get the help they need.
Treatment can be fairly straightforward if the symptoms are
recognized and managed early on.
therapists are trained to notice signs of depression and if
a loved one is in therapy, this person can be a first line
of defense for treatment of post-stroke concerns. Cognitive
behavioral therapy is also beneficial, helping change
negative thinking and behaviors that add to their
depression. Counseling, group or individual, is another
alternative for talk therapy. Many times this helps loved
ones work through feelings of loss from the stroke, as well
as gain a positive outlook on the future—their “new” normal.
common treatment approach is through nutrition. A diet rich
in Omega-3 fatty acids, folic acid, Vitamin B and complex
carbohydrates is known to help those dealing with
depression. Omega-3 fatty acids can be found in foods such
as fish, flaxseed and walnuts, and promote a healthy brain.
Complex carbohydrates include items like brown rice, oatmeal
and whole wheat. They boost the neurotransmitter chemicals
in the brain which affect mood. Dark chocolate helps reduce
fatigue and stress in a person with depression. Caregivers
can think of beans, oranges and broccoli as sources of folic
acid, a vital nutrient that helps with cognition. For
Vitamin B, eggs, milk and liver increase a person’s energy
with most physical ailments, exercise also helps improve a
person’s mental state. Adaptive equipment is available for
those who are recovering from a stroke. Walking, yoga and
swimming are low-impact exercises which are ideal therapies
for post-stroke conditions.
for post-stroke depression isn’t a one-size-fits-all
solution. Treatment is available and a caregiver plays a big
part in its success. Anti-depressants often help a loved one
get through a tough transition time after a stroke. They are
common treatments prescribed by a physician or psychiatrist.
Anti-depressants improve mood by interacting with
neurotransmitter chemicals in the brain, and there are a
variety of options available which a physician can prescribe
to see which works the best for that person.
therapy and medication are well-known and successful
treatment measures for depression, the importance of social
support following a stroke cannot be underestimated.
alone is not always enough, and if left untreated,
depression can worsen other common post-stroke symptoms like
malnutrition, incontinence, pain, fatigue and sleep issues.
Then, if a person is inhibited in recovery because of
depression, those feelings only compound because of the lack
of progress toward recovery.
is critical. Relationships can change after a stroke, and
that alone is enough reason to keep talking to family and
friends. The assurance that while things may be different,
the mutual love and respect are still there is so important
for a loved one’s recovery from the stroke and depression
associated with it. Stroke support groups are often a great
benefit and can be found at most local hospitals or stroke
successful management of depression following a stroke
prevents both caregiver and loved one from suffering a great
cost. Depression takes a physical and emotional toll, and
should never be ignored or minimized. Help is definitely
symptoms of depression following a stroke are the same as
from any other cause. Caregivers should be alert for the
following behaviors in a loved one:
sad, anxious or empty feelings
or decrease in appetite and eating patterns
of helplessness, hopelessness and/or worthlessness
of interest in activities or hobbies
concentrating or remembering details
pains, headaches and digestive problems that do not ease
doctors making certain inferences based on their existing
knowledge, there can be no diagnosis. And yet, when
disorders with such drastic effects remain so little
understood, researching and treating them may require that
much more humility and imagination. Given that medicine is
itself a narrative practice—in which the case history has
always played a central part—it, too, might benefit from a
respect for ambiguity
US regulators have begun easing the Volcker rule
ban on risk-taking by banks, a centrepiece of
post-financial crisis reforms. Fed chair Jay Powell said
regulators wanted to “replace overly complex and inefficient
requirements” with more streamlined ones.
FT’s financial editor Patrick Jenkins says that while the
bulk of Volcker reforms seem sensible, there is danger in
the broader deregulatory mood in the US.
“Much of the populism evident in Italy now, and across the
world in recent years, was triggered in part at least by a
resentment with policymakers who allowed the 2008 crisis to
happen. Repeating those mistakes so soon is not only
financially irresponsible, it is politically incendiary.”
"........who allowed the 2008 crisis to happen". True
statement and it could happen again here
crappy scientific study detected agricultural
antibiotics — those fed to animals like chickens and cows — in
many people who claimed they hadn't taken antibiotics in the
year prior to their sample collection!
means that antibiotics, used to fatten up animals raised in
industrial farming operations, may be ending up in our bodies
where they could potentially alter or harm the microbes in our
in the Mail
Goodwin Big Band
chart that boils
6/1:Dire retirement outlook requires "new
factors are converging to dim the outlook for retiring
workers in the US and around the world, according to a new
global survey, including skimpier government-provided
benefits, low interest rates and volatile markets. The
survey finds overwhelming support among the working
population for government action, and the authors call for a
"new social contract" that encompasses sustainable benefits
and a positive view of aging.
for special needs for young people
Achieving a Better Life Experience (ABLE) Act allows people
who are diagnosed with a disability before the age of 26 to
save for quality of life purchases without affecting their
qualification for social security benefits (SSI) or Medicaid.
to the passage of this act, people with special needs would be
disqualified for government benefits if they had any more than
$2,000 in assets.
passage of this act is expected to promote the health,
independence and quality of life for people with special needs
and end a cycle of poverty, dependence and limitation.
ABLE Act allows people with special needs to set up an account
similar to a 529 Account, a popular college savings plan. They
can save up to $100,000 in the account without affecting their
SSI benefits. If the account accrues more than $100,000, SSI
payments will be suspended but not terminated. The amount in
the account does not affect Medicaid payments. The cap on the
account is governed by the state limit on 529 plans.
may contribute to the account as long as cumulative
contributions do not exceed the gift tax exclusion amount in
any given year, which is $14,000 this year and is adjusted for
inflation. Contributions are not tax deductible. But the
accounts can grow tax free, similar to a Roth IRA.
Account holders can withdraw money from the account, without
paying taxes, to use for any qualified expenses including
health, education, housing, transportation, training,
assistive technology, personal support, and related services
and expenses. Housing distributions count as income for SSI
an account holder wanted to use money in the account for a
non-qualified expense, say a trip to Disneyland, the amount
withdrawn would be subject to taxes and a 10 percent penalty.
Money left in the account after the death of the account
holder is subject to Medicaid reimbursement, which means that
Medicaid is entitled to recoup any funds spent on the account
holder during his lifetime. Remaining funds would be
distributed to the deceased’s estate or designated
long standing option for parents of children with special
needs is a Special Needs Trust. ABLE accounts are not a
replacement for a Special Needs Trust but could be another
option if a Special Needs Trust does not fit the needs of a
Special Needs Trust is exempt from the SSI and Medicaid
resource tests, but not from Medicaid reimbursement. A Special
Needs Trust would not have an investment cap, like an ABLE
Account, but is subject to income tax. A qualified estate
planning attorney can help you determine which plan is best
for your family.
Fiduciary Duty of Care for Canada"
ROBERT FLANNIGAN, University
decisions of the Supreme Court of Canada suggest that the
court has further distanced itself from the conventional
Anglo-Canadian view that fiduciary accountability is
concerned exclusively with the mischief of self-dealing or
predict workforce growth around the world is set for a
world population is projected to grow over the next several
decades, according to the United Nations, but at a slower
rate. Officials expect the overall population growth rate to
average 0.8% by 2050, compared to between 1% and 2% in
population growth and population aging will weigh heavily on
economic growth in the coming decade or two," Andrew
Kenningham, chief global economist at Capital Economics, wrote
in a recent note to clients. "These forces will be only partly
offset by increased participation in the workforce by women
and older people."
reduction in the rate of growth of the working-age
population is unavoidable and is a key reason to expect
global economic growth, which has been sluggish in the past
decade, to remain weak,"
and artificial intelligence have
the power to offset the negative effects of workers aging
out of the labor force.
spread of robots and use of artificial intelligence will
continue to reduce the demand for unskilled labour and could
lead to an increase in inequality even if demographic
pressures are pushing in the opposite direction,
than 120 pregnant whales were slaughtered last year during
Japan;s annual hunt in the Antarctic Ocean.
Latest figures show that 333 minke Antarctic whales were
killed last summer, 181 of which were females and 122 of which
SEC SchmucksSEC chief explains why "fiduciary" not
included in best-interest rule
and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton told attendees
at the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority's annual
conference that the word "fiduciary" was left out of the
SEC's Regulation Best Interest to avoid investor confusion.
"It's important for an investor to understand that the
relationship model of the broker-dealer is different than
the relationship model of the investment adviser,"
But I do not understand what best interests means?????? You
only get screwed only half as much???
70% of marketers don’t trust their data
Data is the bedrock of a strong marketing campaign and is at
the top of the list of purchasing priorities for marketers.
A study found that 70% of marketers believe that their
customer data is low quality or inconsistent.
Marketing is also called nudging
This is why you diversify:
addition to overvalued tech startups that are still
privately-owned, some highly-touted IPOs in
recent years have crashed, leaving investors burned. Among the
recent high-profile casualties are shares of Fitbit
a maker of wearable devices that help users adhere to exercise
programs, and social media company Snap Inc. (SNAP).
Beyond tech, big losers also include meal kit delivery
service Blue Apron Holdings Inc. (APRN) and German-based
hotel search engine Trivago NV (TRVG). Through the
close on May 25, these stocks are down by 82%, 56%, 69%
and 56% from their respective offering prices
case you missed it, the peak in the tech unicorn bubble already
has been reached. And it's going to be all downhill
from here. Massive losses are coming in venture
start-ups that are, in some cases, as much as 50%
overvalued." He adds, ominously, "We are now officially in a
tech bubble larger than March of 2000." (Keith
today’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the
critical figures and data in the energy markets this
We will then look at some of the key market movers early
this week before providing you with the latest analysis of
the top news events taking place in the global energy
complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
$2.92 per gallon for the week ending on May 21 and have
surpassed $3 per gallon in regional markets.
- The prices are the highest for the
Memorial Day weekend in four years.
- However, prices are likely to fall back
soon with crude oil prices plunging over the past
to data from the World Steel Association, China
produced more steel than the rest of the world
combined in April, with its output rising to 76.7
million tonnes — the highest monthly total on
health care, also known as domiciliary care, is care
provided in one’s own place of residence. This can
include skilled nursing services, speech-language pathology,
physical and occupational therapy, home health aide services,
as well as medical social services and the provision of
durable medical equipment such as wheelchairs or walkers for
use in-home when ordered by a licensed physician. Anyone
who has ever looked for home-based care for a loved one
comprehends what a daunting experience it can be.
through the “home health agencies” section of the phone book
and there are an overabundance of listings—some counties have
over 200 home care agencies, with new ones opening, closing,
and merging weekly. With so many choices, one might
assume that the choice would be easy, but in fact it is not.
What follows are some tips to consider when considering
home care for a loved one:
out if the agency you are considering is licensed and bonded.
In the case of a home health agency, this means that the
quality of care being provided has been surveyed/accredited by
an outside accrediting agency such as Medicare or the Joint
Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations
(JCAHO). The agency should also be licensed by the state
in which it operates. Agency outcomes can be researched
by going to www.Medicare.gov and going to their new “home
health compare” tool, or calling the Medicare helpline at
terms of employees, confirm that all home health employees
(nurses, physical therapists, home health aides, and social
workers) are certified or licensed in the state they are
working (regulations may vary by state), in order to ensure
they meet minimum requirements to perform their duties.
Also important is to make sure that the agency does
screenings of employees to ensure that not only do they not
have a criminal background, but that they are free of
communicable diseases which could affect the compromised
immune system of a patient.
what policies are in place to ensure patient confidentiality,
and find out how far that policy extends. Many
caregivers, particularly ones who arrange for assistance long
distance, find themselves frustrated after they arrange for
care for a loved one, only to be told that due to HIPAA
regulations, the agency cannot provide information on their
health status. At the outset of care, make sure of what
the company’s policy for communication is and ensure that it
is noted who may and may not receive information about the
R. found communication a problem with one home health agency
while caring for her stepmother cross- country. She
faxed a durable power of attorney right to the home health
agency but “they still wouldn’t tell me anything!” She
states that “especially when you are working from a distance,
your hands are tied when there is no communication.”
most people, it is a far better choice to choose a “full
service” agency which provides for all their needs (nursing,
home health aide, physical therapy) than to pick and choose
services from different agencies. This ensures that
caregivers are free to communicate amongst themselves on a
patient’s progress and work collaboratively to resolve any
issues, rather than if they are all from different agencies
and forced to stab blindly at problems as they arise.
patients fare better when they see one or two familiar faces
rather than a steady stream of strangers passing through their
lives. Find out if the same person will be caring for
your loved one, or if they will see a new person on a
continual basis. Having one or two familiar caregivers
is particularly helpful in the case of people who are confused
or frail, as this helps both the patient and caregiver get
used to a routine. It also helps the caregiver know what
is “normal” for a patient and what is not normal and warrants
a call to the doctor. Also important to find out is what
will happen should the regular worker call in sick. Will
the person be forced to wait for assistance until the next
day? Will a substitute come out at the same time?
Will the person have to wait for hours until another
worker has time in their schedule?
out what the procedure is if there is an emergency. Is
there always someone on call? Will a patient need to
wait until the next business day to speak with someone should
an emergency happen after the regularly scheduled service is
performed? A good agency should have someone on call 24
hours a day, seven days a week, so urgent matters need not
wait until the next scheduled visit.FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY –
A reputable agency will not hesitate to address the patient’s
financial considerations and should provide the
patient/caregiver with a written statement explaining what
is/is not covered by insurance/Medicare, and what services the
patient will be responsible for out of pocket, if any.
with friends, your physician, ask people at your place of
worship, or attend a support group and ask which home care
agencies others are using. One of the best ways to
assess how an agency performs in the home is to look past the
glossy brochure and ask people how they feel about the service
that has been given to their loved ones. Chances are
that good or bad, people will be happy to share their
THE SERVICE COVERED BY INSURANCE?
people who look for home care erroneously assume that if their
loved one needs assistance in the home, Medicare will cover
the service. This is not always the case. Medicare
limits itself to “reasonable and necessary part time or
intermittent skilled nursing care and home health services,”
and does not include 24 hour care, services which are limited
to “homemaking” services, assistance with transportation, or
companion services. Unless a person has a long-term care
insurance policy which provides for these services in the
home, home care can be cost prohibitive. Although most
people prefer to “age in place,” there are times that due to
financial resources and the availability of finding good,
reliable, continuous care, that an assisted living community
may be a better choice than in-home care, both financially and
for the assurance of the safety and health of a loved one.
one popular commercial for menswear states, “An educated
consumer is our best customer.” There is possibly no
arena in which this is truer than in the search for good,
reliable home health care. Ronnie Thomas, who is a part
owner/administrator for a home health agency in Broward
County, FL states that when a person is considering home
health care for a loved one, one should make an informed
decision and weigh all the options. She believes that
first and foremost to remember is that the services the
patient is receiving is paid for by insurance (usually
Medicare) and since this is money the loved one worked hard
for and paid into the system, they are entitled to and deserve
good, quality care which puts the patient’s needs first, out
of the system. “Attentive, kind, quality care from
committed professionals who involve the family as much as
possible,” are things she believes should be insisted on.
R. believes the same. “Compassion and good communication
between caregiver, patient, and the home health provider are
paramount,” she states, and although she has had many
sleepless nights worrying about her stepmother’s health, she
knows that the home health provider she now uses provides her
with one less thing over which to worry
Curnow Big Band
and lyrical Chart
What an increase!!!!
July 1st, Secure Survivor GUL II will be re-priced. Premiums
will be increasing from 21% to 26% depending on funding
scenario, age, gender, underwriting class and face amount.
You can expect an average increase of:
• 21% for level pays
• 23% for 10-pays
• 26% for single pays
makes me wonder about other companies. Increases-
yes but not that great. The company must have seriously missed
the lapsed rate..
Reorganize your life. What do you
need to focus on at this time? By reorganizing your life, you
can better structure your needs and the needs of others.
Rethink your priorities. What is most important to
you? By taking a good look at what is most important in your
life, you can focus and channel your energy in that area.
Find relaxation in exercise, hobbies, meditation. What
is the best way that you can find peace? By finding a method
of relaxation, you can recharge your energy so that you will
be better able to face daily challenges.
Let go! What can you let other
people do? By taking a good look at what others can do, you
can ask for and accept assistance
U.S. birth rate is going down further
birthrate hit yet another record low in 2017, as mothers in
nearly all age groups gave birth to fewer babies last year
than they had the year before, according to the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention.
The U.S. birthrate has been falling for several years, led by
declines among younger women in their teens and early 20s who
seemed to be putting off motherhood until they were older. But
in 2017, women in their 30s joined the trend as well.
Aren't you happy for them????
Rise For Annuities in 1Q
The increase in
commissions is not enormous but agents might find the change
refreshing after years of declining compensation.
Is it a bird, plane....... No its a country or a province
recently made a similar shift, changing its description of
Taiwan from a country to a province of China. It appears to
be the first financial institution to make the change this
year amid China's political crackdown on how foreign
companies describe its disputed territories.
this is going to make a mess with U.S. But we already have a
going up or down or does anyone know
Policymakers and economists are divided about whether weakness
in the first three months of the year was an aberration
primarily owing to extreme cold weather blown in from Siberia
by the “Beast from the East”, or an indication that underlying
trends are sickly.
To every consumer and business
survey cloud, the silver lining is the UK labour market, where
the employment rate hit another all-time high of 75.6 per cent
in the first quarter, despite the growth slowdown.
PIER Working Paper No. 18-010
JON KLEINBERG, Cornell
University - Department of Computer Science
ANNIE LIANG, University of Pennsylvania -
Department of Economics
SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN, Harvard University - Department of
Economics, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
a theory, we should ask not just whether its predictions
match what we see in the data, but also about its
“completeness”: how much of the predictable variation in the
data does the theory capture? Defining completeness is
conceptually challenging, but we show how methods based on
machine learning can provide tractable measures of
completeness. We also identify a model domain—the human
perception and generation of randomness — where measures of
completeness can be feasibly analyzed; from these measures
we discover there is significant structure in the problem
that existing theories have yet to capture.
Idiosyncratic Risk Been Historically Low in Recent
Bartram, Sohnke M.
(University of Warwick); Brown, Gregory W.
(University of North Carolina); Stulz, Rene M.
(Ohio State University)
1965, average idiosyncratic risk (IR) has never been
lower than in recent years. In contrast to the high
IR in the late 1990s that has drawn considerable
attention in the literature, average market-model IR
is 44% lower in 2013-2017 than in 1996-2000.
Macroeconomic variables help explain why IR is
lower, but using only macroeconomic variables leads
to large prediction errors compared to using only
firm-level variables. As a result of the dramatic
change in the number and composition of listed firms
since the late 1990s, listed firms are larger and
older. Larger and older firms have lower
idiosyncratic risk. Models that use firm
characteristics to predict firm-level idiosyncratic
risk estimated over 1963-2012 can largely or
completely explain why IR is low over 2013-2017. The
same changes that bring about historically low IR
lead to unusually high market-model R-squareds.
G10 G11 G12
insurance agents owe a responsibility to beneficiaries?????
California Insurance Broker
Did Not Have to Advise Life Insurance Beneficiary How to
Protect Her Interest
brokers owe a limited duty to their clients “to use reasonable
care, diligence, and judgment in procuring the insurance
requested by an insured.” An insurance broker does not breach
its duty to clients to procure the requested insurance policy
unless “(a) the [broker] misrepresents the nature, extent or
scope of the coverage being offered or provided . . . , (b)
there is a request or inquiry by the insured for a particular
type or extent of coverage . . . , or (c) the [broker] assumes
an additional duty by either express agreement or by ‘holding
himself out’ as having expertise in a given field of insurance
being sought by the insured.”
is the job of a lawyer, not an insurance broker, to advise
clients how to protect their interest in life insurance
policies, the appellate court added. There was “no duty
requiring an insurance agent to advise a beneficiary of a life
insurance policy how to protect her beneficial interest,” the
appellate court declared, adding that it “decline[d] to create
a duty in the absence of any articulable legal basis on which
to do so.”
case is Randle
v. Farmers New World Life Ins. Co., No. B276579 (Cal.
Ct.App. May 18, 2018). Attorneys involved include: Shernoff
Bidart Echeverria, William M. Shernoff, Travis M. Corby;
Shernoff.Law and Howard S. Shernoff for Plaintiff and
Appellant. Lewis Brisbois Bisgaard & Smith, Thomas G.
Oesterreich and Dustin E. Woods for Defendant and Respondent
Hebson Insurance Agency, Inc.
the industry has pretty much wanted to show/state that the
agents are very highly trained (having taught this stuff, I
can assure you it is not true). Unfortunately that is not
necessarily the agent's fault since they can only know what is
required for them to know and while there are statements
confirming the need for an attorney, did you ever find anyone
that has read an entire insurance or annuity contract????.
Mandatory knowledge for insurance, investments et al is not
very inclusive and generally not real life. You have heard me
say this many times- is an insurance licensee, securities
broker or registered investment advisor required to know how
to use a financial calculator???
5/29: Federal Fund rates going