reference to the limited fiduciary capabilities in the
planning industry (and more) and why they may/will remain as
such given sophomoric DOL rules and flaccid organizational
enforcement. Specific commentary to sexism and ethical
and moral lapses of society impacting women. Not the standard
for investors and advisers. The economic changes from
the Great Recession caused major adjustments in
investing. One of the major issues is the flip flop
of the correlations in bond funds versus equities
coupled with a truly lower return and an increased
overall risk. It will take a lot more effort to provide
adequate return for those in need and the discussion will
address pros and cons particularly for retirement purpose
Emphasis on risk, Click for full article.
not the Fed’s job to stop people from losing money.”
7/17: Trump's gaffe- this
is not going to end well at all
Paul Ryan noted
«Нет никакой моральной эквивалентности между Соединенными Штатами и Россией, которая остается враждебной нашим самым основным ценностям и идеалам. Соединенные Штаты должны быть сосредоточены на том, чтобы привлечь Россию к ответственности и положить конец его мерзким нападкам на демократию»,
2010, fast-food jobs have grown nearly twice as fast as
employment over all, contributing to the economic recovery.
But rapid growth has created new problems. Some say
restaurants have grownfaster
causing a glut of competition that is another source of
pressure on business owners.
increased immigration enforcement: Nearly 20 percent of
workers are foreign-born.
economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that an
increased emphasis on education — and getting scholarships —
had contributed to the decline in working teenagers,
reflecting both the rising costs of education and the low
wages most people that age can earn.
Table 1. Historical Nominal Returns by Decade
The returns below show how each
asset class has performed on a nominal (absolute)
basis on a decade-by-decade basis. Long-term returns
(1926 through 2016) are also listed to provide a
*Three years short of a decade.
that has happened over this 76-year period, decade-long
returns were only negative once for large-cap stocks: in the
2000s because of the aforementioned recessions and financial
crisis. Returns were also low, but still positive on an
absolute basis, for large-cap stocks during the 1970s when
inflation hit double-digits. On the other hand, annualized
gains were well into the double-digits on a percentage basis
during three of the seven full decades.
2000s were not a lost decade for small-cap stocks. Though
their returns were the lowest of any decade since the Great
Depression, small-cap stocks still realized an annualized
return of 6.3% between 2000 and 2009. Small-cap stocks have
not routinely outperformed their large counterparts,
however—trailing in three different decades (1950–1959,
1980–1989 and 1990–1999).
Table 1 also shows returns for both
long-term and intermediate-term bonds. Though the 1970s were
associated with poor returns for bond prices, their high
yields provided much more income on a nominal (absolute)
basis. Long-term bonds only incurred negative nominal
returns during the 1950s when inflation was dormant and the
economy was enjoying a postwar boom. Falling interest rates
in the 1980s led to a multi-decade period of high returns
for long-term and intermediate-term bonds.
for each decade can be attributed to some event (or series),
such as the 1950s postwar prosperity, the 1970s high
inflation and oil embargos, the tech-driven boom of the
1990s and the dual-recession of the 2000s. Unless a person
is absolutely certain about a specific set of circumstances
recurring, basing future return expectations on a single
decade or another comparatively shorter period of time
should be avoided. Even if a person feels confident about
their forecast, a very large margin of error should still be
An interactive graph of the US
showing what work is needed where and for how much. Great for
new graduates. Educational
and occupational choices matter for your earnings,
but where you work matters, too. Employment
wages in some occupations vary substantially from state to
state, county to county, and city to city.
suggests that people often move to find work or accept a job,
but that there are many other factors that play a role in
where a person chooses to relocate.Cost
of living (including housing costs) and taxes, as well as a
host of other factors collectively referred to as amenities,
all contribute to a choice about where to move. Research shows
that workers value amenities like pleasant weather, clean air,
low crime, and proximity to cultural attractions.
median earnings for all working-age (25–64) full-time workers
in the United States is $41,000, although deviations from this
value are quite large. Education plays a large role in
earnings differences: workers with less than a high school
education have median earnings of $23,000, while those with an
advanced degree have median earnings of $73,000. Median
earnings range from $15,000 to $182,000 across 320 occupation
logic of the competitive model does indeed seem to suggest
that if people can gain by breaking the rules
no one is looking, they will do so, in the process creating
competitive pressure for rivals to do likewise.
opioid-related overdoses and deaths reaching record levels in
Canada, the top medical official in Toronto is calling for the
decriminalization of all drugs as part of a strategy to
treat illicit drug use as a public health and social issue,
not a criminal one.
7/15: This excerpt is by Branko
Milanovic on the issue of morality in business (or not).
Some may find his comments (see number 1) as cynical but as I
have gone through so many issues in my life, I really cannot
actually find myself in sympathy with the operations of Gekko,
Skilling etc., not because I like them as individuals but
because I see an iron logic in their behavior. Let me explain
that iron logic as composed of three elements.
ethics do not exist
exist and they are supposed to embody the general moral
rules so that we know what we can do, insuring that the
pursuit of our private interest leads to some greater
then just follow our private interests.
a (less than ideal) metaphor, imagine the rules as fences
around a path, like in bobsledding. You can do whatever you
want on that path, and should never hit the fence. But the
fence is designed by somebody else (society) in such a way
that while you yourself, never caring about why the fence was
set just where it was set, will maximize the speed of your own
movement and the overall average speed of all actors.*
am thus intellectually sympathetic to the view that personal
morality exists only outside economics or capitalism. I might
like the guys who are nice and ethical, but when it comes to
economics I really do not expect them to be so. I even very
much doubt when they claim they are. I tend to see them as
hypocritical. This is not in their job description.
is the philosophy that I think motivated Skilling and the
is what I called in the attached blog (“Kant and Henry”) the
idea of outsourcing morality. Morality is embedded in
the fence and I am going to play by the rules (but nothing
more) and, even when I consciously do not play by the rules
(as for example when I cheat and score a goal by hand), I do
not have to feel bad about it. It is the job of the
referee to catch me and punish me. In other words, there is
no internal ethical mechanism to stop me from scoring a goal
by any means I can find."
There is a lot more- but ultimately it is like the CFP Board
of Standards, CPA society, NAPFA and more regarding
illegality, incompetence and more. "We will not enforce an
ethical violation unless preceded by a legal one."
are not the same- quite obviously. But the referees addressed
above are at least actually looking for faults. We still do
not have referees in the finance industry competent to figure
out even the grossest violations. Think Bernie Madoff, ENRON,
major financial institutions of 2008, etc. Bernie was able to
do fraud in clear sight of regulators and he really only got
caught because an 'investor' proved his numbers were fraud.
Only then did the SEC do something. You have a lot of the
players who marketed worthless mortgages still doing business.
If you wish to win allegations or wrong doing, you better have
a hard head and a lot of money because you will become
ostracized. Think about the women of #MeToo movement. You can
understand why they did not file grievances- they were right
but the powerful have a lot of clout. I applaud the movement
to get justice- at least decency.
states will have just under half of the total population of
the country, 49.5 percent, according to the Weldon Cooper
Center’s estimate. The next eight most populous states will
account for an additional fifth of the population, up to 69.2
percent — meaning that the 16 most populous states will be
home to about 70 percent of Americans.
studies show that if investors could predict in advance
when recessions will begin and end, they could enjoy superior
returns to the returns earned by a buy and hold investor.
Specifically, if an investor switched from stocks to cash or
short-term Treasuries 4 months before the start of a recession
and back to stocks 4 months before the end of the recession,
he or she would gain almost 5 percentage points over the buy
and hold investor.
A true statement but useless. The inverted yield curve in 2000
or 2008 indicate a recession- probably in 12 to 14 months
though it could have been shorter or longer. Did anyone
actually hit that- or better yet, right at the top?/ Not that
I remember, Certainly getting back in 4 months before the end
save by luck.
it's bouncing around- though higher right now
the global oil market being hit by multiple outages and the
sanctions on Iran promising to bring yet more oil offline, the
return of Libyan supply this week is keeping oil prices down
July 13th, 2018
prices held steady after Wednesday’s steep selloff, with the
return of Libyan supply keeping prices in check despite
reports of a tight global market.
insurance (LTCi) claims are not filed as early as
conventional wisdom would seem, new research indicates.
may come as a surprise to people who don’t realize that LTCi
claims tend to start when claimants are in the 80s and 90s,
that is much better for the company. It gets premiums longer
and the payout is less (since policyholder is closer to death
7/15: Trump--The presumptive
gall to tell May what to do. It's far beyond tactless- it is
an act of meddling in country's innate rule to decide what
they have a right to do. America rightly believes that Russia
interfered in our election- and this was a boorish
insufferable egomaniac (stable genius???)
obstructing another country's right to govern as they
see fit. If it was something that was so wrong, it had to be
best expressed in private.
President Trump blasted Prime Minister Theresa May's compromise,
pro-business Brexit plan, according to the Sun: "I actually
told Theresa May how to do it, but she didn’t listen to me.”
He also warned that May's approach could imperil any future
trade deal between the United States and Britain
good times for U.S. equities may be about to stop rolling.
After outperforming much of the rest of global markets over
the past decade and continually hitting new record highs,
U.S. stocks are likely to become the international laggards
over the coming decade, as per the opinions of strategists
at Morningstar Investment Management Europe.
bearish forecast for U.S. equities finds some support, at
least in the near term, from analysts calling the end of the
The signs are all there, Kempen Capital Management’s chief
strategist Roelof SalomonstoldCNBC
late last week, “we see yield curve flattening, we see
credit spreads widening, we see defensives slowly becoming
outperformers, it’s a classical late-cycle story.”
can really hurt. In my opinion, this article in the Huntington
Post is "you can't beat City Hall"- in that the odds are
stacked against you. It is also the reason that few women-
until recently- did not go to HR, the press et al when sexual
situations occurred. You make your own decision with the
issues presented. .
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if it was 45,000,000 I would have filled it out
Reserve economists have determined the gap between two- and
10-year US Treasurys might be a less accurate indicator of
recession risk than the spread between the interest rate
on three-month Treasurys and the rate expected by the
market in 18 months. The Federal Reserve Bank of
Atlanta is exploring any correlation between eurodollar
contracts and the approach of recession.
7/13: North Korea did not show
up regarding the returns of American soldiers. Is it them or
China pulling the chain??? It would not surprise me if China-
the trade war may not be in full force but there is enough
acrimony to mess up the 'deal' with North Korea.
7/13: Kinda high- add in the
trade war and the public is going to be hit hard by these
costs increases. You also have gas going way up.
Labor Department figures show producer prices posted a 0.3%
June rise for an annual 3.4% rate, the biggest increase
since November 2011. The escalating costs of services and
motor vehicles were key in driving up producer inflation.
health of less-educated people is poorer and has improved less
over time than their more-educated coworkers.
workers haven’t been affected very much by the change, because
they’ve never been big beneficiaries of employer retirement
plans. In the 1990s, they could claim just 11 percent of the
value in pensions, and today they hold 11 percent of the
wealth in 401(k) plans.
they have generally shorter lifespans, a retirement delayed
translates to fewer benefit checks – and smaller financial
gains – over their years in retirement.
marriage rates have seen a sharper decline – from 88 percent
to 64 percent in a decade – than the population’s overall
decline. So fewer high-school-educated men are feeling
the pressure from a working wife to postpone retirement.
7/13: Richard Laterman CFA-
Continued Flight of Capital to America
June produced a continued flight to the USD,
which rose almost 1% against its global peers (DXY +0.7%). This
flow of capital benefitted US equities, bonds and
real-estate (the best-performing asset class last
month, rising over 4%). Sustained strength in the US economy
and an interest-rate hike (and hawkish tone) from the Fed
played a role in this dynamic. Dollar strength acted as a
large headwind against global diversified strategies,
while shorter-term momentum strategies also suffered due
to erratic price gyrations across most asset-classes.
Measured in USD, the vast majority of
international asset-classes experienced losses of varying
degrees, with particular pain borne by commodities (-1.9%)
and emerging market stocks (-4.4%). The latter lost for the
fifth consecutive month in the longest losing streak in
almost 3 years. Crude oil bucked the lower trend in
commodities by reversing its May swoon in a late month
surge. Renewed tensions over immigration and weaker economic
data in the EU drove down the major bourses (FTSE Europe
-0.6%), while the open economies of Asia were rattled by the
looming trade war (FTSE Pacific -2.6%).
With summer at full steam in the northern hemisphere, the
seasonal decrease in trading volumes has the tendency to
mask underlying trends. But as investors readjust their
expectations and portfolios to a new world order of
protectionism and autocratic rulers in weakening
democracies, investors are shifting from a “return ON
capital” mindset to one more focused on “return OF capital”.
Global diversification and risk management remain our
best defense against an ever more volatile scenariors
in weakening democracies, investors are shifting from a
“return ON capital” mindset to one more focused on “return
OF capital”. Global diversification and risk management
remain our best defense against an ever more volatile
There is article after article addressing how many
retirees want to work in retirement/will work in retirement=
and all the articles have 'various facts' that are much
different than another. If the following is actually true, the
6% of working retirees does not bode well well for figuring on
the extra income those retirees (52%) expect to make.
52% of baby boomers who are still in the workforce expect to
be employed after retirement, only 6% of retirees work,
according to a survey from PGIM Investments. Pre-retirees
increasingly base the decision on when to retire upon how
much money they have, the survey also found.
one-third of millennials said they are not saving for
retirement because they don't see the point when "anything
can happen between now and then," according to PGIM
Investment's 2018 Retirement Preparedness Survey. More than
half of millennials surveyed said they plan on retiring
whenever they have enough saved.
some point, people with Alzheimer’s disease will need help
with bathing, grooming, and dressing. Because these are
private activities, people may not want help. They may feel
embarrassed about being naked in front of caregivers. They
also may feel angry about not being able to care for
people with Alzheimer’s disease take a bath or shower can be
one of the hardest things you do. Planning can help make the
person's bath time better for both of you.
person with Alzheimer’s may be afraid. To reduce these fears,
follow the person's lifelong bathing habits, such as doing the
bath or shower in the morning or before going to bed. Here are
other tips for bathing.
leave a confused or frail person alone in the tub or shower.
check the water temperature before he or she gets in the tub
plastic containers for shampoo or soap to prevent them from
a hand-held showerhead.
rubber bath mat and put safety bars in the tub.
sturdy shower chair in the tub or shower. This will support
a person who is unsteady, and it could prevent falls. You
can get shower chairs at drug stores and medical supply
use bath oil. It can make the tub slippery and may cause
urinary tract infections.
for a Bath or Shower
the soap, washcloth, towels, and shampoo ready.
sure the bathroom is warm and well lighted. Play soft music
if it helps to relax the person.
matter-of-fact about bathing. Say, "It's time for a bath
now." Don't argue about the need for a bath or shower.
gentle and respectful. Tell the person what you are going to
sure the water temperature in the bath or shower is
the Bath or Shower
the person with Alzheimer’s to do as much as possible. This
protects his or her dignity and helps the person feel more
a towel over the person's shoulders or lap. This helps him
or her feel less exposed. Then use a sponge or washcloth to
clean under the towel.
the person by talking about something else if he or she
him or her a washcloth to hold. This makes it less likely
that the person will try to hit you.
a Bath or Shower
rashes or infections by patting the person's skin with a
towel. Make sure the person is completely dry. Be sure to
dry between folds of skin.
the person has trouble with incontinence, use a protective
ointment, such as Vaseline, around the rectum, vagina, or
the person with Alzheimer’s has trouble getting in and out
of the bathtub, do a sponge bath instead.
with Alzheimer’s often need more time to dress. It can be hard
for them to choose their clothes. They might wear the wrong
clothing for the season. They also might wear colors that
don't go together or forget to put on a piece of clothing.
Allow the person to dress on his or her own for as long as
out clothes in the order the person should put them on, such
as underwear first, then pants, then a shirt, and then a
the person one thing at a time or give step-by-step dressing
away some clothes in another room to reduce the number of
choices. Keep only one or two outfits in the closet or
the closet locked if needed. This prevents some of the
problems people may have while getting dressed.
three or four sets of the same clothes, if the person wants
to wear the same clothing every day.
loose-fitting, comfortable clothing. Avoid girdles,
control-top pantyhose, knee-high nylons, garters, high
heels, tight socks, and bras for women. Sports bras are
comfortable and provide good support. Short cotton socks and
loose cotton underwear are best. Sweat pants and shorts with
elastic waistbands are helpful.
or large zipper pulls for clothing, instead of shoelaces,
buttons, or buckles. Try slip-on shoes that won't slide off
or shoes with Velcro®straps.
the most part, when people feel good about how they look, they
feel better. Helping people with Alzheimer’s brush their
teeth, shave, or put on makeup often means they can feel more
like themselves. Here are some grooming tips.
mouth care helps prevent dental problems such as cavities and
the person how to brush his or her teeth. Go step-by-step.
For example, pick up the toothpaste, take the top off, put
the toothpaste on the toothbrush, and then brush. Remember
to let the person do as much as possible.
your teeth at the same time.
the person clean his or her dentures. Make sure he or she
uses the denture cleaning material the right way.
the person to rinse his or her mouth with water after each
meal and use mouthwash once a day.
a long-handled, angled, or electric toothbrush, if you need
to brush the person's teeth.
the person to see a dentist. Some dentists specialize in
treating people with Alzheimer’s. Be sure to follow the
dentist's advice about how often to make an appointment.
a woman to wear makeup if she has always used it. If needed,
help her put on powder and lipstick. Don't use eye makeup.
a man to shave, and help him as needed. Use an electric
razor for safety.
the person to the barber or beauty shop. Some barbers or
hairstylists may come to your home.
the person's nails clean and trimmed
7/12: The dollar is
softening and oil prices are rising. Life just got harder.
population numbers are projected to reach 8 billion around
2023, 9 billion by 2050 and expected to level off around 10
to 12 billion by 2100.Thomas
world's population has reached the vicinity of 7.5 to 7.6
1960, world population has grown exponentially by about
one billion every 13 years.
have a large ecological footprint — we are the most
populous mammal on Earth today.
the Earth will only have capacity for the population to a
point until premature death by starvation and disease
balances the birth rate.
Health Organization figures show 2.1 billion people lack
access to safe drinking water, and 4.5 billion lack
1 billion around 1800,
a doubling time of about 300 years; 2 billion in 1927, a
doubling time of 127 years; and 4 billion in 1974, a doubling
time of 47 years.
According to the Worldwatch
Institute, an environmental think tank, the Earth has1.9
hectaresof land per person for growing
food and textiles for clothing, supplying wood and absorbing
waste. The average American uses about 9.7 hectares.
data alone suggest the Earth can support at most one-fifth
of the present population, 1.5 billion people, at an
American standard of living.
is vital. Biologically, an adult human needs less than 1
gallon of water daily. In 2010, the US used355
billion gallonsof freshwater, over
1,000 gallons (4,000 liters) per person per day. Half
was used to generate electricity, one-third for irrigation,
and roughly one-tenth for household use: flushing toilets,
washing clothes and dishes, and watering lawns.
7.5 billion people consumed water at American levels, world
usage would top 10,000 cubic kilometers per year. Total world
supply — freshwater lakes and rivers — is about91,000
Earth supports industrialized standards of living only
because we are drawing down the "savings account" of
non-renewable resources, including fertile topsoil,
drinkable water, forests, fisheries and petroleum.
Most of the people in the study
were taking medications to keep their blood pressure under
control, but she notes that higher readings, even if they
weren’t excessively high, were associated with more brain
lesions. “We are not talking here about people with very
high blood pressure,” she says. “We’re talking about pretty
average blood pressure and what blood pressure across the whole
range of readings can do to the brain.”
more research is done, Arvanitakis says the results should
encourage people to focus on maintaining healthy blood
pressure not just for their heart, but for brain health, as
well. “Many, many issues are important for brain health and
for avoiding brain diseases,” she says, “so we should consider
them all in order to be as healthy as possible as we grow into
the later stage of life.”
7/12:The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle says that you can't know the
exact position and the speed of an object at the same time.
The closer you get to knowing one, the further you get from
the other. .
are questions caregivers face on a daily basis. How do we
balance between too much and too little care? How do we
balance what we think needs to be done with what might be most
family members and other caregivers often sabotage
well-intended efforts to help their loved ones simply because
they haven’t thought about answers to basic questions. And
when it comes to recommending changes in someone’s home, the
balancing act can be particularly acute. This is a place where
someone has lived all his life, where she feels comfortable,
where he feels safe. The fact is, however, that while most
people say they want to live in their homes as long as
possible, most are not designed to allow them to age
successfully in place.
not just the ill, but the “well elderly” who experience the
effects of aging. Aging affects vision, mobility, dexterity
and endurance. Arthritis or other degenerative diseases may
make it difficult to do the things one used to do. This
usually translates into some very real and practical problems
at home. The three most common problems are: getting in and
out of the house; using the bathroom; and going up and down
the stairs. Because most people are unaware that simple home
modifications can alleviate these problems, many develop
coping strategies to stay in their homes, but put them at risk
for accidents or injury.
approaching the possibility of home modifications can be
sensitive, the right preparation and understanding can make
all the difference. It’s a fact of life. As people age, their
bodies change and they may have difficulty performing certain
daily activities because of physical and cognitive
limitations. So the house that was once perfect for them may
not be anymore. Consider this, when couples have their first
child they make changes around the home. But very few realize
that as they get older they also need to make changes to make
the home more appropriate for this stage as well.
an occupational therapist who works in a county office in
aging, I see attempts at this balancing act on a daily basis.
Some successful. Some not. But all well intended. While an
occupational therapist has specialized skills and expertise to
match an environment to a person’s abilities, there are simple
steps family caregivers can use.
Investigate and Raise Awareness
best first step, even before you raise the home modification
issue with your loved one, is to build a list of helpful
resources for yourself. If you’ve ever tried to find
particular products or home contractors for general work, you
know how difficult this process can be. Who do you trust? What
is the right price? Who have others used before?
investigating resources can be the biggest obstacle a person
faces when considering home modifications, becoming aware of
different products and services can really help to facilitate
this process. Subscribing to a catalogue that carries home
modification products is a good idea and can easily be found
by conducting a quick “Google” search on the subject. If you
find something you think might be immediately useful, try
introducing the idea of change in the form of a gift, like a
new bathmat with non-skid backing. Or, if some regular home
maintenance is already being performed, include handrails, if
necessary, as part of that project.
resources, like area agencies on aging, can be enormously
helpful and are good places to start. These agencies may be
knowledgeable about products and local services that can help
with home modifications and offer referrals on aging resources
– both subsidized and private. Sometimes, resources may
be in your own back yard. Neighbors and friends who have
successfully adopted changes can be great role models
a professional who specializes in aging is the best person to
provide a complete assessment, there certainly are things
caregivers can begin to do that will be enormously helpful
when a professional is brought in.
observe and look out for any changes in the home and with the
person. As you look around the home, ask yourself if the
environment has changed in any way. Is it clean? Is anything
broken? Is there food in the kitchen? Has the laundry been
done? As for the person, have you noticed whether they are
forgetting things? Are medications being taken? Are bills
being paid? It’s good to keep an eye out for any kind of
change in typical, everyday behavior.
are things you can learn from observing. There are also things
you can learn by asking. You might not always get a complete
response, but you will have started the dialogue and
reinforced your efforts in raising awareness.
kinds of things are you having difficulty doing at home?
are you not doing now that you used to be able to do, or
that you still want to do?
are the reasons you don’t do those things?
feel unsafe and which are you unable to do?
important to problem-solve together. If you strongly impose
your own ideas, they run the risk of being ignored. Approach
the subject by letting your family members know that you are
concerned about their health and safety and assure them that
you don’t assume that getting older means self-awareness and
understanding are diminished.
Consult a Professional
truth is, no matter how prepared you might be, no matter what
kind of approach you take, you should count on a certain
amount of resistance to your offer of help. A soft, patient
approach is key, but in the end, it may not be all that is
occupational therapist can match an environment to a person’s
abilities so they can do what they want and need to do at
home. The occupational therapist’s unique, three-pronged
approach – looking at the person, the task and the environment
– results in an individualized assessment that matches a
person’s physical and cognitive abilities to the features of
the physical environment allowing them to do what they want
and need to do. It enables people to live what they consider
to be full and meaningful lives.
be honest, while utilizing the resources of an occupational
therapist may provide enormous benefit to your loved one, it
also relieves an enormous amount of pressure from the
caregiver. The external professional can come in and ask
questions in a way that produces the kind of responses that
help lead to the development of an action plan.
OT can walk into the home and immediately begin to identify
what a person is doing well and can emphasize the person’s
success. For example, she might say, “I notice you have
cleared everything out which really helps in preventing falls.
Are there other areas that you would like to focus on?”
occupational therapist can take the blame off of the person
and put it on the environment – it’s not you – it’s the home.
Explaining that most houses were built when people’s life
expectancies were not nearly as long really rings true for
process of change
essential to recognize and think about changes before they are
needed rather than waiting for a crisis situation that may
force a person to be removed from a home. Advanced planning
empowers the person to make changes for themselves rather than
have someone else step in. Often, it you wait until a crisis,
individuals will resist even more.
change and the adoption of new behaviors to occur slowly. The
process usually takes several steps including:
the planning stage, consider the Home Modification Strategies
recently released from the American Occupational Therapy
Association (see sidebar). This resource offers a room-by-room
guide of things to look for and changes to consider in the
his famous graduation speech turned book, Dr. Seuss reminds us
the Places You’ll Go, to:
with care and great tact / And remember that Life’s a Great
Balancing Act / Just never forget to be dexterous and deft /
And never mix up your right foot with your left.
is a great balancing act, but not an impossible one. Through
awareness, education, planning and action, you can help your
loved ones fulfill their desire to remain in their homes for
as long as possible.
40% of the world’s 7.6 billion people live within 62 miles
(100km) of an ocean coast. we
collectively treat the oceans worse than most of us treat the
inside of our cars. Every year, anywhere from about 8 to 12
million US tons of plastic end up in the world’s oceans.
70% of all marine garbage sinks to the bottom.
Fed is getting seriously hawkish: In theminutestoday,
it revealed that instead of thinking about backing off with
its rate hikes, it's throwing out the flattening yield curve.
explained what factors - in addition to the "gradual" rise in
the federal funds rate, as per the Fed's rate hikes - cause
the yield curve to flatten that make it unreliable as a
"reduction in investors' estimates of the longer-run neutral
real interest rate"
longer-term inflation expectations"
level of term premiums in recent years relative to
historical experience reflecting, in part, central bank
asset purchases" - meaning that QE are artificially
repressing long-term yields in relationship to shorter-term
according to "some participants," these types of factors
"might temper the reliability of the slope of the yield curve
as an indicator of future economic activity," the minutes
“Advice for Future Corpses (and Those Who Love Them),” by the
writer, palliative-care nurse and Zen Buddhist Sallie Tisdale
— a wild and brilliantly deceptive book. It is a putative
guide to what happens to the body as it dies and directly
after — and how to care for it. How to touch someone who is
dying. (“Skin can become paper-thin, and it can tear like
paper. Pressure is dangerous.”) How to carry a body and wash
it. How to remove its dentures.
walks readers through every conceivable decision they will
have to make — whether to die in the hospital or at home, how
to handle morphine’s side effects and how to breathe when it
becomes difficult (inhale through pursed lips).
the caretaker, she writes: “You are the defender of modesty,
privacy, silence, laughter and many other things that can be
lost in the daily tasks. You are the guardian of that person’s
the evolution and main drivers of residential investment,
using a panel with quarterly data for 15 advanced economies
since the 1970s. Residential investment is a notably
volatile component of real GDP in all countries in the
sample. We find real house price growth, net migration
inflows and the size of the existing housing stock to be
significant drivers of residential investment across various
model specifications. We also detect important asymmetries:
interest rate increases affect residential investment more
than interest rate cuts, and interest rate changes have
larger effects on residential investment when its share in
overall GDP is rising. Finally, we show that adding
information on residential investment significantly improves
the performance of standard recession prediction models.
Smith| Updated December 27, 2017
— 5:52 PM EST
the traditional approach to portfolio
construction, investors determine theirrisk
select investments based on the amount of risk
they are willing to take. In more technical
are driven by risk tolerance.
the exact opposite of the traditional approach
to investing. Rather than focusing on risk,
the Sortino ratio focuses on the
investor's desired return. Understanding the
differences, both broad and subtle, between
these approaches can help investors approach
portfolio construction in the manner mostconsistent
with their investment objectives.
a Focus on Goals
initially asked to define their investment
goals, many investors start out with a single
objective that can be summed up as "I want to
make as much money as I can." When presented
with investment strategies that provide an
opportunity to achieve significant gains in
exchange for the possibility of sustaining
significant losses, many of these investors
revise their investment goals to something
more along the lines of "I want to make as
much money as I can withoutsustaining
significant losses." It is at this stage
that serious planning can begin—and the need
to measure risk becomes relevant.
an investor's perspective, risk and return
have a direct relationship, with low levels of
risk associated with low potential returns and
high levels of risk associated with the
potential for high returns. The concept that
invested money can render higher returns only
if it is subject to the possibility of being
lost is often referred to as "therisk-return
of the risk-return tradeoff, investors must be
personal levels of risk tolerancewhen
selecting investments. The goal instead is to
understand the balance between the level of
returns generated and the amount of risk that
must be taken in order to generate those
returns. To evaluate this balance, investors
need to be able to quantify and measure risk.
ratio, derived in 1966 by William
Sharpe, is one of the most commonly used
measures of risk and return. It is calculated
by subtracting the rate of return on a
risk-free investment from the rate of return
for the investment under consideration and
dividing the result by the standard deviation
of the investment's returns. The mathematical
formula for calculating the Sharpe ratio is:
7/10: TheSortino ratio,
developed by Dr. Frank A. Sortino in 1980, refines the concept
introduced by the Sharpe ratio. While the Sharpe measures both
upside and downside volatility, the Sortino ratio captures
only downside volatility. The calculation of the
Sortino ratio is similar to the calculation of the Sharpe
ratio except it uses downside deviation for the denominator,
ignoring positive returns, instead of standard deviation and
replaces the risk-free rate of return with the rate of return
from a target defined by the investor. The mathematical equation
is as follows:
a closer look, the target rate of return can be the rate
needed to achieve a specific financial goal over a specific
period of time, the rate needed to match or beat a given
benchmark, or any other rate desired by the investor.
focus on downside risk makes the Sortino ratio more
relevant to investors because it looks at potential losses as
opposed to simply volatility. Investing, after all, is
generally focused on making money not just on mitigating risk.
Also, the investor-defined benchmark aligns well with the
focus on making money. While the risk-free rate of return can
certainly be used if it aligns with an investor's objectives,
a risk-free benchmarkmay be a totally
inappropriate comparison if, for example, the investor has a
portfolio of large-capitalization stocks that are more likely
to behave like theStandard
and Poor's 500 Index, theDow
Jones Industrial Averageor another
equity benchmark. With the Sortino ratio, investors are
free to choose the benchmark that best matches their
EFM- Many Americans were justifiably outraged when
Obama let Assad kill more of his people when he 'knew' he
Americans would intervene. Obviously we didn't and that is a
stain on Obama. But now we have a RUSSIAN backed attack that has
forced 325,000 Syrians to flee their homes in 100 degree heat
and with no water nor food,And the borders are closed.
What are we doing? Nothing- just sitting by with perhaps an
utterance of 'this cannot go on and is wrong, immoral' or
something of that ilk.
Maybe we sit back because Russia is
involved and Trump is going to have a sleepover with Putin
Assad should have been pushed out long ago. We blew it before
and it looks like we will blow it again. The death toll is over
400,000 with the Syrian regime so what's a few thousand more.
Anti Trump. No. I was pissed at Obama and this is no different.
(And Trump pissed all over Obama for his refusal to help)
Neither one had a cogent international policy that had any guts
But I will ask this- just why is
Trump having a personal meeting with Russia right now? Syria may
not even be mentioned so what's the big deal??? More photo op as
with Kim???? Free caviar??
Most nursing homes have overstated
their staffing levels in reports to the government,
effectively falsifying their records
and confirming the suspicions of many families that
the number of caretakers was often inadequate.
1.4 million people receive care in skilled nursing
facilities. The new federal data reveals frequent
and significant fluctuations in day-to-day staffing.
discrepancy can be particularly acute on the
weekends — when, one resident said, it becomes “like
a ghost town.”
Our allies are going to be laughing
at Trump about being taken by Kim. Same goes for Pompeo- though
I can see he didn't want his real thoughts to come out. But I
guess Trump knew it was coming because he 'read; Kim in just a
minute. North Korea played the U.S. and won. Will the U.S. and
South Korea go back to their war games????
This is an absolute mess. Maybe Trump can cry on Putin's
So am I totally against Trump?? No. I thought he should have
gone to see Kim. But to be taken like this puts the U;S. in bad
straits. We look like schmucks.
am one hundred per cent sure that this black person
is tying her shoes in a suspicious way.”
just saw a brown person illegally cross the border
from Vermont into New Hampshire.”
A minority glared at my dog.”
I called five minutes ago, but that black person is
a black woman in my yoga class who’s stealing my
Wealthy not particularly happy with advisors
wealth reportfound thatglobal
satisfaction levels for wealth managers among
high-net-worth individuals stood in the low 60%range
in the first quarter. Even with a year-over-year increase in
satisfaction, this was still below a “passing grade” of 70%.
the kicker: Over the past two years, investors enjoyed
robust investment returns. Capgemini said this suggested
thatinvestment returns by themselves
are insufficient to sustain a wealth management business.
report said the wealth of individuals with $1 million or
more of investable assets surpassed the $70 trillion
threshold, with 1.6 million people joining their ranks
globally. High-net-worth wealth grew by 10.6% year on year,
a sixth consecutive year of gains, and will surpass $100
trillion by 2025
noted that several concerns may be driving global investors’
subdued satisfaction levels:overall
wealth management fee levels, growing need for
personalized service and the desire for broader value
delivery across investment and non-investment areas.
the summer, it is important for everyone, especially older
adults and people with chronic medical conditions, to be
aware of the dangers of hyperthermia. Hyperthermia is an
abnormally high body temperature caused by a failure of the
heat-regulating mechanisms in the body to deal with the heat
coming from the environment. Heat stroke, heat syncope
(sudden dizziness after prolonged exposure to the heat),
heat cramps, heat exhaustion and heat fatigue are common
forms of hyperthermia. People can be at increased risk for
these conditions, depending on the combination of outside
temperature, their general health and individual lifestyle.
people, particularly those with chronic medical conditions,
should stay indoors, preferably with air conditioning or at
least a fan and air circulation, on hot and humid days,
especially when an air pollution alert is in effect. Living
in housing without air conditioning, not drinking enough
fluids, not understanding how to respond to the weather
conditions, lack of mobility and access to transportation,
overdressing and visiting overcrowded places are all
lifestyle factors that can increase the risk for
without air conditioners should go to places that do have
air conditioning, such as senior centers, shopping malls,
movie theaters and libraries. Cooling centers, which may be
set up by local public health agencies, religious groups and
social service organizations in many communities, are
risk for hyperthermia may increase from:
changes to the skin such as poor blood circulation and
inefficient sweat glands
substantially overweight or underweight
lung and kidney diseases, as well as any illness that causes
general weakness or fever
blood pressure or other health conditions that require
changes in diet. For example, people on salt-restricted
diets may be at increased risk. However, salt pills should
not be used without first consulting a physician.
perspiration, caused by medications such as diuretics,
sedatives, tranquilizers and certain heart and blood
of multiple medications. It is important, however, to
continue to take prescribed medication and discuss possible
problems with a physician.
stroke is a life-threatening form of hyperthermia. It occurs
when the body is overwhelmed by heat and is unable to
control its temperature. Heat stroke occurs when someone’s
body temperature increases significantly (above 104 degrees
Fahrenheit) and shows symptoms of the following: strong
rapid pulse, lack of sweating, dry flushed skin, mental
status changes (like combativeness or confusion),
staggering, faintness or coma. Seek immediate emergency
medical attention for a person with any of these symptoms,
especially an older adult.
you suspect someone is suffering from a heat-related
the person out of the heat and into a shady, air-conditioned
or other cool place. Urge the person to lie down.
you suspect heat stroke, call 911.
a cold, wet cloth to the wrists, neck, armpits and/or groin.
These are places where blood passes close to the surface of
the skin, and the cold cloths can help cool the blood.
the individual to bathe or sponge off with cool water.
the person can swallow safely, offer fluids such as water or
fruit and vegetable juices, but avoid alcohol and caffeine.
Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program(LIHEAP)
within the Administration for Children and Families in the
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services helps eligible
households pay for home cooling and heating costs. People
interested in applying for assistance should contact their
local or state LIHEAP agency.
a car is a symbol of independence and competence and is
closely tied to an individual’s identity. It also
represents freedom and control and allows older adults
to gain easy access to social connections, health care,
shopping, activities and even employment. At some point,
however, it is predictable that driving skills will
deteriorate and individuals will lose the ability to
safely operate a vehicle. Even though age alone does not
determine when a person needs to stop driving, the
decision must be balanced with personal and public
safety. Driving beyond one’s ability brings an increased
safety risk or even life-threatening situations to all
members of society. Statistics show that older drivers
are more likely than others to receive traffic citations
for failing to yield, making improper left turns, and
running red lights or stop signs, which are all
indications of a decrease in driving skills.
Understandably, dealing with impaired older drivers is a
road to driving cessation is anything but smooth. Each
year, hundreds of thousands of older drivers across the
country must face the end of their driving years and
become transportation dependent. Unfortunately, finding
other means of transportation has not noticeably
improved in recent years, leading to a reluctance among
older drivers to give up driving privileges and of
families to remove the car keys. The primary issue
facing older drivers is how to adapt to changes in
driving performance while maintaining necessary
mobility. Despite being a complicated issue, this
process can be more successful when there is a
partnership between the physician, older driver, family
headlines like these have ignited national media debates
and triggered the pressing need for more testing and
evaluation of elderly drivers, especially with the swell
of the Baby Boomer generation: “Family of four killed by
an 80-year-old man driving the wrong way on Highway 169.
86-year-old driver killed 10 people when his
vehicle plowed through a farmers’ market in southern
California. 93-year-old man crashed his car into a
Wal-Mart store, sending six people to the hospital and
injuring a 1-year-old child.”
to the Hartford Insurance Corporation, statistics of
older drivers show that after age 75, there is a higher
risk of being involved in a collision for every mile
driven. The rate of risk is nearly equal to the risk of
younger drivers ages 16 to 24. The rate of fatalities
increases slightly after age 65 and significantly after
age 75. Although older persons with health issues can be
satisfactory drivers, they have a higher likelihood of
injury or death in an accident.
an older adult’s sense of independence vs. driving risk
equals a very sensitive and emotionally charged topic.
Older adults may agree with the decline of their driving
ability, yet feel a sense of loss, blame others, attempt
to minimize and justify, and ultimately may feel
depressed at the thought of giving up driving
privileges. Driving is an earned privilege and in order
to continue to drive safely, guidelines and regulations
must be in place to evaluate and support older
and Driving Cessation
disease and driving safety is of particular concern to
society. Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common
cause of dementia in later life and is a progressive and
degenerative brain disease. In the process of driving,
different regions of the brain cooperate to receive
sensory information through vision and hearing, and a
series of decisions are made instantly to successfully
navigate. The progression of AD can be unpredictable and
affect judgment, reasoning, reaction time and
problem-solving. For those diagnosed with Alzheimer's
disease, it is not a matter of if retirement from
driving will be necessary, but when. Is it any wonder
that driving safety is compromised when changes are
occurring in the brain? Where dementia is concerned,
driving retirement is an inevitable endpoint for which
active communication and planning among drivers, family,
and health professionals are essential.
statistics from the Alzheimer’s Association indicate
that 5.3 million Americans have Alzheimer’s disease (AD)
and this number is expected to rise to 11-16 million by
the year 2050. Many people in the very early stages of
Alzheimer’s can continue to drive; however, they are at
an increased risk and driving skills will predictably
worsen over time. The Alzheimer’s Association’s position
on driving and dementia supports a state licensing
procedure that allows for added reporting by key
individuals coupled with a fair, knowledgeable, medical
the assessment of driving fitness in aging individuals,
and especially those with dementia, is not clear cut and
remains an emerging and evolving field today.
Role in Driving Cessation
most older drivers are safe, this population is more
prone to vehicle accidents due to decreased senses,
chronic illness and medication-related issues. The three
primary functions that are necessary for driving and
need to be evaluated are: vision, perception, and motor
function. As the number of older drivers rises, patients
and their families will increasingly turn to the
physicians for guidance on safe driving. This
partnership seems to be a key to more effective
decision-making and the opinions of doctors vs. family
are often valued by older drivers. Physicians are in a
forefront position to address physical, sensory and
cognitive changes in their aging patients. They can also
help patients maintain mobility through proper
counseling and referrals to driver evaluation programs.
This referral may avoid unnecessary conflict when the
doctor, family members or caregivers, and older drivers
have differing opinions. (It should be noted that driver
evaluation programs are usually not covered by insurance
and may require an out-of-pocket cost.)
all doctors agree that they are the best source for
making final decisions about driving. Physicians may not
be able to detect driving problems based on office
visits and physical examinations alone. Family members
should work with doctors and share observations about
driving behavior and health issues to help older adults
limit their driving or stop driving altogether.
Ultimately, counseling for driving retirement and
identifying alternative methods of transportation should
be discussed early on in the care process, prior to a
crisis. Each state has an Area Agency on Aging program
that can be contacted for information, and referrals can
be made to a social worker or community agency that
provides transportation services.
do exist to help physicians assess older adults with
memory impairments, weigh the legal and ethical
responsibilities, broach the topic of driving retirement
and move toward workable plans. The Hartford Insurance
Corporation, for example, offers two free publications
that make excellent patient handouts:At
the Crossroads: A Guide to Alzheimer's Disease,
and We Need to Talk: Family Conversations with Older
resources reveal warning signs and offer practical tips,
sound advice, communication starters, and planning
forms. Other resources can be found through the
Alzheimer's Association. Physicians can also refer to
the laws and reporting requirements for unsafe drivers
in their state and work proactively with patients and
their families or caregivers to achieve driving
retirement before serious problems occur. Ultimately,
assessing and counseling patients about their fitness to
drive should be part of the medical practice for all
patients as they age and face health changes.
Role in Driving Cessation
will you know when it is time to stop driving?” was a
question posed to older adults in a research study.
Responses included “When the stress level from my
driving gets high enough, I’ll probably throw my keys
away” and “When you scare the living daylights out of
yourself, that’s when it’s time to stop.” These
responses are clues to a lack of insight and regard for
the social responsibility of holding a driver’s license
and the critical need for education, evaluation and
one can no longer drive can lead to social isolation and
a loss of personal or spousal independence,
self-sufficiency, and even employment. In general, older
drivers want to decide for themselves when to quit, a
decision that often stems from the progression of
medical conditions that affect vision, physical
abilities, perceptions and, consequently, driving
skills. There are many things that an older adult can do
to be a safe driver and to participate in his or her own
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest
that older adults:
regularly to increase strength and flexibility.
driving only to daytime, low traffic, short radius,
the safest route before driving and find well-lit
streets, intersections with left turn arrows, and easy
the doctor or pharmacist to review medicines—both
prescription and over-the counter—to reduce side
effects and interactions.
eyes checked by an eye doctor at least once a year.
Wear glasses and corrective lenses as required.
and consider alternative sources and costs for
transportation and volunteer to be a passenger
or Caregiver’s Role in Driving Cessation
it may seem cruel to take an older person's driving
privilege away; however, genuine concern for older
drivers means much more than simply crossing fingers in
hopes that they will be safe behind the wheel. Families
need to be vigilant about observing the driving behavior
of older family members. One key question to be answered
that gives rise to driving concerns is “Would you feel
safe riding along with your older parent driving or
having your child ride along with your parent?” If the
answer is “no,” then the issue needs to be addressed
openly and in a spirit of love and support. Taking an
elder’s driving privileges away is not an easy decision
and may need to be done in gradual steps. Offering
rides, enlisting a volunteer driver program,
experiencing public transportation together, encouraging
vehicle storage during winter months, utilizing driver
evaluation programs and other creative options, short of
removing the keys, can be possible solutions during this
time of transition.
safety should be discussed long before driving becomes a
problem. According to the Hartford Insurance survey, car
accidents, near misses, dents in the vehicle and health
changes all provide the chance to talk about driving
skills. Early, occasional and honest conversations
establish a pattern of open dialogue and can reinforce
driving safety issues. Appealing to the love of children
or grandchildren can instill the thought that their
inability to drive safely could lead to the loss of an
innocent life. Family members or caregivers can also
form a united front with doctors and friends to help
older drivers make the best driving decisions. If
evaluations and suggestions have been made and no amount
of rational discussion has convinced the senior to cease
driving, then an anonymous report can be made to the
Department of Motor Vehicles in each state.
to the Alzheimer’s Association, strategies that may lead
to driving cessation when less drastic measures fail
meetings to discuss issues and concerns
or removing the car
down the keys
an “Expired” sticker over the driver’s license
the vehicle registration
the older driver from renewing his or her driver's
with the driver’s doctor to write a prescription not
to drive, or to schedule a formal driving assessment
it is suggested that family members learn about the
warning signs of driving problems, assess independence
vs. the public safety, observe the older driver behind
the wheel or ride along, discuss concerns with a
physician, and explore alternative transportation
options. Solutions There are a multitude of
solutions and recommendations that can be made in
support of older drivers. Public education and awareness
is at the forefront. An educational program that
includes both classroom and on the road instruction can
improve knowledge and enhance driving skills.
AAA Foundation provides several safe driving Web sites
with tools for seniors and their loved ones to assess
the ability to continue driving safely. These
include AAAseniors.com and seniordrivers.org. They
also sponsor a series of Senior Driver Expos around the
country where seniors and their loved ones can learn
about senior driving and mobility challenges and have a
hands-on opportunity to sample AAA's suite of
research-based senior driver resources. Information on
the Expos is available at
offers an excellent driver safety program that addresses
defensive driving and age-related changes, and provides
tools to help judge driving fitness. Expanding this
program or even requiring participation seems to be a
viable entry point for tackling the challenges of
driving with the aging population.
is an educational program that helps older adults check
how well their personal vehicles "fit" them and if the
safety features are compatible with their physical
characteristics. This includes height of the car seat,
mirrors, head restraints, seat belts, and proper access
to the pedals. CarFit events are scheduled throughout
the country and a team of trained technicians and/or
health professionals work with each participant to
ensure their cars are properly adjusted for their
comfort and safety.
of driving policies to extend periods of safe driving is
another solution. Older drivers nearing the end of their
safe driving years could ‘retire’ from driving
gradually, rather than ‘give up’ the driver’s license.
An older adult can be encouraged to relinquish the
driver’s license and be issued a photo identification
card at the local driver’s bureau.
Alzheimer’s Association proposes several driving
assessment and evaluation options. Among them are a
vision screening by an optometrist, cognitive
performance testing (CPT) by an occupational therapist,
motor function screening by a physical or occupational
therapist, and a behind the wheel assessment by a driver
rehabilitation specialist. Poor performances on these
types of tests have been correlated with poor driving
outcomes in older adults, especially those with
dementia. Requiring a driving test after a certain age
to include both a written test and a road test may be an
option considered by each state. Finally,
continued input and guidance will be necessary from
AARP, state licensing programs, transportation planners,
and policymakers to meet the needs of our aging driving
is appropriate to regard driving as an earned privilege
and independent skill that is subject to change in later
life. In general, having an attitude of constant
adjustment until an older individual has to face the
actual moment of driving cessation seems to be a
positive approach. Without recognizing the magnitude of
this transition, improving the quality of life in old
age will be compromised. Keeping our nation’s roads safe
while supporting older drivers is a notable goal to set
now and for the future.
is very difficult when it involves the future.”
No matter whether you believe
humans caused the problem or not is effectively irrelevant- we
are in a zone that will continue to detrimentally impact
humans from now on. It seems like every time I write something
on how bad it is, within a week or two something like the
above occurs putting humanities existence at risk.
late May 2017, the western town of Turbat
in Pakistan hit 128.3 degrees (53.5 Celsius), tying the
all-time highest temperature in that country and the
world-record temperature for May, according to Masters.
And yes, I do have a stuffed bass
that I should get rid of.
State of America’s Workforce.
It found that, overall, less than 47% of all U.S. workers
are “somewhat ready” for retirement — having saved 50% to
80% of the money they will need — with 18% stating they are
not ready at all (0 to 20% saved). Just a bit over that,
20%, say they are very ready for retirement (80% to 100%
and gray-collar workers (47.7%) are “not very ready”
(20%-50% saved) while white-collar workers (49.1%) were
“somewhat ready.” The top professions of readiness were
engineering (57.6%) and protective services (50.5%). The
bottom groups of readiness were personal care workers, such
as personal trainers (27.5%), and those in food preparation
and serving (28.5%). The next lowest groups were
construction and extraction (40.9%) and office and
administration support (40.9%).
blue- and gray-collar areas, protective services and
health care reported the highest level of excitement for
retirement. Of all respondents, 25% felt excited for
retirement while 26% felt only a little excited. Sadly,
17% were not excited at all.
majority of those surveyed felt “not worried a bit” or “a
little worried” about retirement, while 13% felt very
larger the company, the more positive workers felt about
at smaller companies (fewer than 50 employees) were more
likely than employees at larger companies to feel their
employer is not helpful at all in their retirement
all blue- and gray-collar workers, 26% felt not informed
on retirement product options, while 20% of white collar
workers said the same. Personal care workers weren’t
satisfied at all with information and only 45% of
food preparation employees weren’t satisfied about
retirement options. Construction and extraction employees
as well as those in engineering reported the highest
levels of “helpfulness.”
study also found that those who felt most prepared for
retirement were three times as likely to have access to
pensions than those who felt unprepared, and were five times
as likely to have IRAs, eight times as likely to have mutual
funds and 10 times as likely to have an annuity. Further,
59% of those who felt prepared had a 401(k) plan versus
those who felt unprepared.
reasons provided for not being prepared for retirement, the
study found, were not saving earlier (40%), making bad
financial decisions (19%), not saving enough (17%) and
personal issues (8%). In addition, 26% said high daily
living expenses and 24% said elevated debt levels hindered
their ability to save. Those who said they were most
unprepared for retirement stated these reasons five to seven
times more than those who felt more prepared. Of professions
who stated too much debt was a key issue were food prep and
serving, health care, and construction and extraction (all
the study found that four in 10 employees stated they
planned to be working a part-time job during retirement
either by choice or necessity, and that three in
five were likely to work longer — on average two more
years — to reach their retirement goals.
DOL fiduciary rule is dead. After initially invalidating the
rule in March, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals officially
issued an ordervacating
the rule on June 21st.
The SEC has proposed its own regulation to replace the DOL
rule, but the proposed rule comes short of requiring aunified
the scrapping of the fiduciary rule may have a short-term
impact on the types of investment advice out there, Michael
Kitces correctly points out that investors have been alerted
to the potential shortcomings and conflicts of interest in
the financial advice industry. It’s now up to investors
to make sure their advisor is held to a fiduciary
the industry already moving in the direction of fiduciary
duty, one could argue that the DOL fiduciary rule is no
longer necessary. Increased transparency and investor
education makes the rule redundant today. The
mainstreaming of the debate around fiduciary duties means
that investors are better able to make informed decisions
about the financial advice they receive. In fact, assets
low-cost index funds and firms that hold to the fiduciary
standard of care.
EFM- lovely thought but the
reality is that nil investors know the difference. True that
fees have come down but if you save $750 per year on $100,000
it may seem like a lot over time. But if in a 10 year period
you lose 50% of your money to a recession, what is the point?
I figure 3 recessions in a 30 year period. probably four and 5
as an outlier.
today’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the
critical figures and data in the energy markets this
We will then look at some of the key market movers early
this week before providing you with the latest analysis of
the top news events taking place in the global energy
complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
that gasoline prices in the U.S. have already peaked and
will gradually decline over the course of 2018. The high
point was in late May when the national average hit $2.96
per gallon. The EIA notes that gasoline prices tend to peak
in the summer when demand is at its strongest point and more
expensive summer fuel blends are required.
- The EIA expects gasoline prices to fall
to $2.84/gallon by September and to $2.68/gallon by
- However, the short-term outlook seems to
ignore the growing number of crude oil supply outages around
the world, which is driving up oil prices.
- There is always a several month lag
between changes in oil prices and changes in prices at the
pump. But WTI is back to a three-year high, which likely
means that gasoline prices are set to rise in the coming
weeks, defying the EIA forecast.
In a study, even
when the rate of “problems” (threatening faces/unethical
proposals) went down, participants continued to see them
in areas they previously considered benign.
Researchers believe this “prevalence-induced concept change”
could explain why so many people take a pessimistic view of
the world, even if some of our social ills have lessened
over the years.
the winner in terms of market share: 36.10% of those
surveyed who use financial planning software in their
practice rely on MoneyGuidePro. Considered one of
the most comprehensive programs and launched in 2001 by
PIETech, it quickly rose to the top of the ranks and shows
no signs of losing market share.
a very in-depth program and is known for its detailed cash
flow analysis module. Of over one thousand respondents who
reported using financial planning software, 29.02%
reported using eMoney, up from 25% in 2017. Additionally, it
earned the highest average user rating (8.0) of
all of the financial planning tools that the survey
RightCapital beat out Money Tree for third place in this
year's survey, claiming 9.97% of the market share.
For being a relatively new software, it was among the best
Tree'stotal market share brings it
to fourth on the list with 7.27% of survey
respondents choosing it above all other programs. It is also
the most popular software for veteran firms who have been in
business for over 20 years.
received favorable responses from just over 5% of
the survey’s respondents, with most citing NaviPlan as the
preferred financial planning product.
Level Rise:The mid-Atlantic,
particularly New Jersey, Virginia, North Carolina and
Florida, has the highest exposure to coastal flooding in
the United States, with the Bay Area and Pacific Northwest
also highly exposed in several of their coastal cities and
majority of cyclone risk in the United States is
concentrated in the Southeast, given its geographic
proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Atlantic
Ocean. The coastal Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are also
exposed to cyclones, but they tend to be less frequent
than in the Southeast and somewhat weaker on average after
interacting with land or cooler ocean waters.
Rainfall:The Midwest is
particularly exposed to heightened flood risk due to
changing rainfall patterns. Recent advancements in
attribution science show extreme rainfall to be the main
driver of recent floods rather than 20th century
agricultural practices, as was largely believed to be the
case until recently.
Stress:The highest heat
stress scores tend to be centered in the Southeast and
Midwest, concentrated in Missouri and western Illinois and
fanning out to the Great Plains, Mississippi River Basin,
Stress:Key watersheds for
agricultural production such as the Central Valley aquifer
system in California and the Ogallala Aquifer in the Great
Plains are highly exposed to water stress. The
agriculturally-dominated areas of Bakersfield, Delano, and
Visalia, CA along the Central Valley Aquifer are among the
ten cities most exposed to water stress. Similarly,
municipalities along the Ogallala Aquifer in the Great
Plains also rely heavily on agriculture and are among the
most exposed to water stress.
answers fundamental questions that have preoccupied modern
economic thought since the 18th century. What is the
aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher
than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much?
Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long-run?
Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns?
We answer these questions on the basis of a new and
comprehensive dataset for all major asset classes,
including - for the first time - total returns to the
largest, but oft ignored, component of household wealth,
housing. The annual data on total returns for equity,
housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from
1870 to 2015, and our new evidence reveals many new
insights and puzzles.
a task-based model in which high- and low-skill workers
compete against machines in the production of tasks.
Low-skill (high-skill) automation corresponds to tasks
performed by low-skill (high-skill) labor being taken over
by capital. Automation displaces the type of labor it
directly affects, depressing its wage. Through ripple
effects, automation also affects the real wage of other
workers. Counteracting these forces, automation creates a
positive productivity effect, pushing up the price of all
factors. Because capital adjusts to keep the interest rate
constant, the productivity effect dominates in the long run.
Finally, low-skill (high-skill) automation increases
(reduces) wage inequality.
7/2: Myanmar- this has been a
stain on humanity
prime minister Sheikh Hasina has invited Mr Guterres
to witness the condition of the nearly 1m Rohingya Muslims
who have sought refuge from neighbouring Myanmar, amid talk
that he World Bank may provide Bangladesh with a grant
worth about $200m to help tackle the Rohingya crisis.
It is a New Yorker article and it
may cost a couple books to sign up- so just do it.
The best real life read on death
and dying that I have read in decades. (My first formal read
was How We Die, Amazon 1994) . It is a lengthy article by a
physician that identifies the personal, financial,
religious and medical elements of dying. If you are old,
expect to get old or know someone who is already old, this
becomes a must read. Attorneys, retirement/financial/wealth
advisors and more should absolutely include this a a necessary
element in dealing with clients. You simply have to read this
EFM-I understand the ethical
issues in letting someone die when there is no hope of any
recovery. But extending a 'life' of pain and raw
agony for an extra month or two of tortuousexistence
that also costs up to hundreds of thousands of dollars is
per cent of all Medicare spending is for the five per cent
of patients who are in their final year of life, and most
of that money goes for care in their last couple of months
is of little apparent benefit.
spending for a breast-cancer survivor, for instance,
averaged an estimated fifty-four thousand dollars in 2003,
the vast majority of it for the initial diagnostic testing,
surgery, and, where necessary, radiation and chemotherapy. For
a patient with a fatal version of the disease, though, the
cost curve is U-shaped, rising again toward the end—to an
average of sixty-three thousand dollars during the last
six months of life with an incurable breast cancer.
Our medical system is excellent at trying to stave off death
with eight-thousand-dollar-a-month chemotherapy,
three-thousand-dollar-a-day intensive care,
We are all aware that this occurs
all the time. Society tells us to protect life. A family
refuses to release the patient due to religious grounds and
the element that they will be treated as pariahs by friends
and more. I do recognize that but we simply cannot afford to
extend a life filled with pain and agony just to please
7/2: Russia again??
is now grappling with whether Moscow used ties to
British citizens to bring about an exit from the
E.U. If Britain validates this, it will
destabilize the world economics (at a minimum). Obviously
politics will be in shambles for several years.
Parliament tightened limits on overtime hours, responding to
concerns about karoshi,
or death by overwork, It limits overtime work to less
than 100 hours a month and less than 720 hours a year, and
it sets penalties for companies that violate the limits.
South Korea, a new work-hours law takes effect Sunday
capping the workweek at 52 hours. President Moon Jae-in has
said workers have the “right to rest” and lawmakers have
blamed long hours for everything from sluggish job creation
to low birthrates.
data released Friday showed Japan’s jobless rate hit a
26-year low of 2.2% in May, and there were 160 job offers
available for every 100 job seekers.
7/1: Retirement education
Institute on Retirement Security found that the median
retirement account balance is $3,000 for working-age
households, and $12,000 for near-retirement households.
climate damage will define the future of the global
economy. per Jeremy Grantham. “Fossil
fuels will either run out, destroy the planet, or both,”
he said. “The only possible way we can avoid this
outcome is, frankly, to complete de-carbonize of our
economy.” This will be the most significant economic
event since the Industrial Revolution He feels
that technology can do this. I don't- at least to the
point where civilization will survive at a decent state
does not demean teh effort needed however and notes.'
and mainstream economics simply cannot deal with these
problems.” “Mainstream economics largely ignores natural
capital,” “A corporation's responsibility is to maximize
profits, not to waste money attempting to guess how to
save the planet.” Grantham said that corporations don’t
consider issues that will impact their business in 25
years, and he argued that they handle externalities very
badly. As a result, he said, we are engaging in
environmentally harmful behavior like deforestation and
soil degradation, with a short-term focus on balance
sheets and income statements.
what;s my take beyond his comments? The world is in a
keenly divisive and politically argumentative state which
has been further alienated by the likes of Trump which
will set back discourse and civility for years- at least a
decade. During that time, the nuclear clock will offset
the minute lost regarding a nuclear catastrophe. It may
already be in the making if it is shown that Kim is
already upgrading his facilities. More fighting via
religion will continue unabated and get worse when the
limited agricultural lands wither away due to the climate
change- due to man, Mother Earth or the Flying Muffin.
It's happening no matter. Putin, Kim and Assad will
probably be alive by 2050- do you think their quest for
power reduced over time?
will have greater storms and a rise in ocean level where
recent estimates of loss of land seems to go up each week.
Grantham thinks such issues will handled appropriately
with capitalism. Nor a chance. Look how well we have done
with our infrastructure that is in a mess. Trillions of
dollars would be needed to save New York City.
and overfishing just gets worse and worse .There is now
more plastic in the oceans than there are fish. The Sea of
Japan is estimated to be effectively devoid of fish by
By 2050, another 1.5 BILLION people will live on earth to
a total of 9 billion. While true that humankind can feed
our globe now, we really don't try. 25,000 children die
each DAY in the poorest areas. Nations now are strapped
for monies and it will get worse. Immigration would reach
astronomical levels which will further feed the haters and
this will unquestionably fuel more wars.
bleak, eh? Well one certain way to eliminate a good piece
of the problem will happen within the next 10 years as
more viruses from permafrost that has been contained for
thousands of years rise up. So we will have a pandemic
which will offset, potentially, billions of people
from living. From those horrid remains, another pandemic
would probably ensue. Mother Earth will spare no one and
nothing, I think you will see a reduction in life
expectancy by 2030 at a minimum. Did you know that our
Life expectancy has gone down. Smoking still kills but
obesity is better at it. Then we have drug use- think
opiods. With the added stresses of life, their use could
I thought a pandemic might ensure
with the bird flu. But we now have a new strain of Ebola.
Have I missed anything???
7/1: Chump change????
Charges Merrill Lynch for Failure to Supervise RMBS
Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Inc. will pay more than
$15 million to settle charges that its employees misled
customers into overpaying for Residential Mortgage Backed
Securities (RMBS). Merrill Lynch agreed to repay more than
$10.5 million to its customers and to pay penalties of
approximately $5.2 million
figures released by the European Union’s statistics agency
Wednesday recorded a dip in growth during the first
quarter. The currency area’s gross domestic product—the
most comprehensive measure of the output of goods and
services in an economy—increased at an annualized rate
of 1.7%, down from 2.7% in the fourth quarter of last
was a weaker expansion than the 2.3% recorded in the
U.S. during the same period.
than 42,000 dairy farmers have gone out of business since
2000, casualties of an outdated business model, pricey
farm loans and pressures from corporate agriculture.
March, more than 100 dairy farmers across seven states
learned that they would lose a contract that would end
their business with Walmart and if they can’t find anyone
else to buy their milk, they could soon have to sell their
rates areup by 30 percentacross
the nation since 1999, according to a recent report by
federal health officials. That increase comes even as the
CDC notes that only about half the people who died by
suicide had a known mental health condition, which has long
been considered the ‘cause’ of suicide.
depression manifests itself in fairly understandable ways--a
lack of motivation or interest in favored activities,
subdued mood, and even outward expressions of depression
like talk of feeling sad, lonely, or worn down. All of these
things make it relatively easy for friends and loved ones to
help a depressed person seek appropriate treatment and
maintain a positive outlook and support network.However, as the recent government
study shows, the suicide rate is not very closely tied to
pre-existing depression. That means that there is an
entirely different demographic at risk for suicide, and it
also explains why the suicide rate has increased so
dramatically in recent years
studies point to the internet as a new and significant risk
factor in the increased suicide rate. Instead of traditional
depression and obvious risk factors like financial or
relational distress, social media allows
normally-functioning people to feel inferior or isolated
relative to a curated set of ‘peers’.
7/1: I do not dismiss the issue
of separation of immigrant children. That said.........,Most of the25,000
five that die each day are concentrated in the world's
poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
There, the child mortality rate is 29 times greater than in
industrialized countries: 175 deaths per1000children
compared with 6 per1000in
7/1: Did Trumped get trumped???
intelligence agencies believe that North Korea has
increased its production of fuel for nuclear weapons at
multiple secret sites in recent months — and that
Kim Jong Un may try to hide those facilities as he seeks
more concessions in nuclear talks with the Trump
is absolutely unequivocal evidence that they are trying to
deceive the U.S," said one official briefed on the
not good news before going overseas. It may make him look
like a schmuck.
is common to be discharged home or to a rehabilitation
facility within two to four days after your hip replacement.Dr.
William J. Hozack, an orthopedic surgeon at the Sidney
Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University, who was
quoted in an article in theNew
York Times, stated that patients tended to be happier
when they are able to recover in their own homes. Being at
home also reduces your chance of blood clots, falls and
chores like laundry, mopping, sweeping and vacuuming
hygiene (bathing, showering and toileting once your incision
an in-home caregivercan relieve the
stress placed on your family and loved ones. A home care aide
is trained to offer comfort, meals, support and
transportation. Home care agencies can offer services 24 hours
a day or as needed.
Eat for Healing
both before and after surgery is a key part of your
healing process. The fuel that you are putting into your body
can help you heal faster, maintain your strength and prevent
foods are your best option for providing optimal nutrition.
Preload your fridge or ask your family and friends to bring
fats like avocado, nuts and seeds
sources of iron and protein like beans and nuts, meat,
poultry and seafood
rich foods like kefir, sauerkraut and yogurt
delicious pot of slow-cooked stew or soup packed
full of beans, leafy greens, meats and veggies makes an ideal
lunch. Serve with a bowl of berries and yogurt. These
nutrition packed meals will have you back on your
Know What is Normal and Have Realistic Expectations
you know what to expect you can prepare yourself for the
healing process. Typically, you will be up and on your feet
one to two days after your surgery and three days after
surgery you will most likely be at home and able to walk with
crutches or a walker.
14 days, the staples from your incision will be removed and
you can start showering. After three to six weeks you may
resume light activities and may be driving and walking without
crutches or a walker.
10-12 weeks after your hip replacement surgery is when you can
expect to return to most of your normal activities. But now
you can enjoy those activities without the pain and stiffness
of your old hip.
Manage Your Pain
you know surgery hurts? Your body will view the surgery as a
trauma and respond with pain and swelling. This is to remind
you to give your body time to heal. Reducing the swelling will
allow you to move more easily.
a plan in place for the first three days after your surgery to
be taking an anti-inflammatory medication prescribed
by your doctor. Also ask your doctor about
using ice for the first week. The cold reduces the swelling
and allows the new joint to move easier.
exercises will also decrease your pain as it helps
with blood circulation and decreases the swelling.
Plan to Move
in bed or sitting for most of the day will cause your new
joint to stiffen. Your hip replacement was meant to give you
more flexibility and less pain. Get moving to make the best
use of your new joint! TheAmerican
Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeonsrecommends
that you stay active but not do too much, too soon.
push yourself beyond what you can handle, but plan to be up
and moving for 20-30 minutes at a time. When you are moving
you help the blood flow increase to your feet and legs and can
prevent blood clots. You will also keep your muscle strength
keep your operated leg facing the front and your hip higher
than your knees. Use a heating pad for 15-20 minutes to warm
up your muscles. Yourphysical
therapistwill give you a list of
exercises to do each day. Do them!
exercises are simple but are meant to keep your new joint in
place and flexible.Usually, exercises
and straightening your knee
down and raising your operated leg up to 12 inches off the
your toes up and down
your hip out to the side and back to the middle
your quads while keeping your leg straight
Don’t exercise to the point of
pain. Aim for about 10 repetitions of each exercise three
times a day. If you find this too uncomfortable, aim for fewer
repetitions more often.
6/29: I had read nothing about this
problem previously and it is hard to believe after everything with
the great recession that major banks STILL do not have the
Deutsche Bank has failed the US Federal Reserve’s
latest stress test and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have
been ordered to strengthen their balance sheets by limiting
dividends and share buybacks.
I think it shows just how perilous the banking
system is particularly after all these years. It could mean a
very large collapse when this recession hits.
6/29: And then we have this-
Indian rupee has hit the lowest level on record against the
greenback. Emerging markets, including India, have been under
pressure in recent months due to higher crude prices, higher
global interest rates and renewed geopolitical tensions.
read the last two words again. You should not/can't have
initiated potential trade wars with major countries doing
And then we have this
stocks are in a bear market and its currency has fallen to
the lowest level this year. It’s now starting to look a
bit like 2015, a period when Chinese financial markets were in
While I'm at it- check out the 2yr and 10 year treasury spreads.
Close to inversion
66 seconds someone in the United States develops AD.1
America there are 15 million people caring for a loved one with
6/28: Regulatory sandbox- you need to
know this because it is growing globally.
science world, asandboxis
a closed testing environment designed for experimenting safely
with web or software projects.
concept is also being used in thedigital
economy arena, to refer toregulatory
grounds for new business modelsthat
are not protected by current regulation, or supervised by
testing grounds are especially relevant in thefintech
world, where there is a growing need to develop
regulatory frameworks for emerging business models. The
purpose of the sandbox is to adapt compliance withstrict
financial regulationsto the
growth and pace of the most innovative companies, in a way
that doesn’t smother the fintech sector with rules, but
also doesn’t diminish consumer protection.
.EFM- I wonder if this is where artificial intelligence could get
away from us??
longer than males in most parts of the world today. Among OECD
nations in recent years, the difference in life expectancy at
birth is around four to six years (seven in Japan). But have
women always lived so much longer than men? The answer is that
they have not. We ask when and why the female advantage emerged.
We show that reductions in maternal mortality and fertility
are not the reasons. Rather, we argue that the sharp
reduction in infectious disease in the early twentieth century
played a role. The primary reason is that those who survive
most infectious diseases carry a health burden that affects
organs, such as the heart, as well as impacting general
well-being. We use new data from Massachusetts containing
information on causes of death from 1887 to show that
infectious diseases disproportionately affected females
between the ages of 5 and 25. Increased longevity of women,
therefore, occurred as the burden of infectious disease fell
for all. Our explanation does not tell us why women live
longer than men, but it does help understand the timing of the
Council President Donald Tusk has told Europe's leaders that the
conflict between the US and the EU extends beyond trade and that
they should prepare for "worst-case scenarios." The policies of
US President Donald Trump have put trans-Atlantic relations
under "immense pressure,"
*EFM- here's what- the meeting with
Putin up. No one has a clue to potential agreements Trump might
make to rattle Europe. After all, Trump wanted Russia to be added
to the Gang of seven in full view of Ukraine. And there has been
little confirmation that Kim is really do much of anything.Trump
is on a short lease of time to make this real.
No one knows this guys name but he is
indicative of the brave men and women that have allowed me
to life with free speech.
Conner was a non descript soldier who showed remarkable
courage time and time again. .
least you will know his name now.
6/28: When all you have is
inconsistency everywhere, you can't even run a Taco Bell.
departure of Trump’s legislative affairs director has brought
the turnover rate among the president’s most senior aides to
75 percent in just the first 18 months of the
administration. Kathryn Dunn
or was it McDonalds
with diabetes should be extra careful during hot weather.
Temperatures of 80°F (about 27°C) or above, especially with high
humidity, can affect medication, testing supplies, and your
you have diabetes, it is harder for your body to handle high
heat and humidity. The heat index, which measures how hot it
really feels by combining temperature and humidity readings,
advises caution starting at 80°F with 40 percent humidity.
can affect your blood glucose (sugar) levels and also increase
the absorption of some fast-acting insulin, meaning you will
need to test your blood glucose more often and perhaps adjust
your intake of insulin, food and liquids.
plenty of fluids, especially water, to avoid dehydration.
Avoid sugar-sweetened beverages such as sweet tea and sodas.
your doctor has limited how much liquid you can drink, ask
what to do during times of high heat.
package inserts with medications to learn when high
temperatures can affect them. Take medications with you if you
will need to take them while you’re away from home, and
protect them from the heat.
you’re traveling with insulin, don’t store it in direct
sunlight or in a hot car. Keep it in a cooler, but do not
place it directly on ice or on a gel pack.
glucose meter and test strip packages for information on use
during times of high heat and humidity. Do not leave them in a
hot car, by a pool, or on the beach.
can damage insulin pumps and other equipment. Do not leave the
disconnected pump or supplies in the direct sun.
physical activity in air-conditioned areas, or exercise
outside early or late in the day, during cooler temperatures.
your air conditioner or go to air-conditioned buildings in
with childless couples, parents in their 30s and 40s have about
3 percent less income for each additional child – some of this
loss occurs when mothers work part-time temporarily or take time
out for childbearing and childrearing. The income gap between
parents and childless couples closes when parents reach their
50s and the kids start leaving the roost.
today’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the
critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this
week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top
news events taking place in the global energy complex over the
past few days. We hope you enjoy.
2017, the oil and gas reserves at a selection of 83
publicly-traded companies grew by the most
- The companies added a combined 8.2 billion
barrels of oil equivalent (boe) to their proved reserves,
pushing the total up to 277 billion boe.
- Spending on exploration and development rose
by 11 percent compared to 2016 levels, but expenditures were
still down 47 percent compared to 2013.
benefits could include social and medical services, improvements
around beneficiaries' homes, transportation to medical
appointments and delivery of meals, and policymakers expect to
learn from Medicare Advantage experiments in these areas
paper examines weight loss and the formation of
healthy habits through cash rewards in the context of
a multi-phase randomized controlled trial involving
700 obese individuals. We find effects of monetary
incentives for weight loss of up to EUR 300 on body
weight during all experimental phases, including a
period of a year and a half following the exposure to
the financial rewards. We also find effects on healthy
behavior during this follow-up phase. After the
initial incentive period, we additionally provided
participants who had lost a substantial amount of
weight with monetary rewards of up to EUR 500. These
had only short-term effects on body weight and healthy
behavior. We argue that our findings are best
explained by monetarily incentivized participants
having formed healthy habits by the time the
experiment ended and that only the speed of the
transition to the new (health) equilibrium was
affected by the additional rewards. Contrary to
the pessimistic perspective presented in earlier
empirical research on habit formation, our results
suggest that a simple program relying on weight loss
rewards can result in long-term health behavioral
model kept by economists at the Spanish bank BBVA indicates a 16%
chance that it will happen in 12 months time, up from 5.2% in
January. That’s around the highest chances since early
2016, when the model briefly spiked as financial markets were
tumbling. Before that, it was last higher during the previous
recession a decade ago.
recession sounds like a far-off thought these days as U.S.
economic growth continues to accelerate faster than its peers.
Gross domestic product is expected to have grown a solid 2.2% in
the first three months of the year when the final reading is
released on Thursday. And GDP in the second quarter is
expected to jump by more than 4%.
main benchmark closed Friday nearly 20% down from its most
recent high, set in January. Worries about escalating U.S.-China
trade tensions have sent the index down 4% this week alone.
so-called “national team,” an assortment of government-backed
investment funds that often acts to stabilize the market, still
owns nearly half a trillion dollars worth of stocks, or around
6% of the total, according to Wind Information. Regulators have
also been meddling in more subtle ways, like ordering
brokerage firms or investors not to engage in heavy selling.
Tuesday’s market tumble, state-owned financial newspapers used
their front pages to claim that all is fine. China’s
central-bank governor commented that market fluctuations were
mainly due to “emotions.”
A 20% loss is seldom caused by pure emotion. A trade war will
exacerbate the situation which could cause a panic in China and
a recession. America is doing better but there are chinks as
Davidson moving part of company to Europe to avoid
European tariffs if imported to Europe
provides a long-run view of well-being inequality at world
scale based on a new historical dataset. Trends in social
dimensions alter the view on inequality derived from per
capita GDP. While in terms of income, inequality increased
until the third quarter of the twentieth century; in terms
of well-being, inequality fell steadily since World War I.
The spread of mass primary education and the health
transitions were its main drivers. The gap between the
West and the Rest explains only partially the evolution of
well-being inequality, as the dispersion within the developing
regions has increasingly determined its evolution.
children’s school performance appears to be readily available.
Do frictions prevent parents, particularly low-income parents,
from acting on this information when making decisions? I conduct
a field experiment in Malawi to test this. I find that
parents’ baseline beliefs about their children’s academic
performance are inaccurate. Providing parents with clear and
digestible academic performance information causes them to
update their beliefs and correspondingly adjust their
investments: they increase the school enrollment of their
higher-performing children, decrease the enrollment of their
lower-performing children, and choose educational inputs that
are more closely matched to their children’s academic level.
These effects demonstrate the presence of important frictions
preventing the use of available information, with heterogeneity
analysis suggesting the frictions are worse among the poor.
about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy,
or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we
document that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as
Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in
countries where past growth expectations have been overly
optimistic. We arrive at this conclusion by looking at the
medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in
IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we
take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit
variation provided by the pseudo-random allocation of IMF
Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we
document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically
differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or
caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a
later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation,
both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency
of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing
economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.
demand for adaptive clothing grows, there are more options than
ever before. Here are a few to consider:
Denimfocuses on soft jeans that are
easy to put on, don’t create pressure sores and have pockets
that are easy for wheelchair users to reach.
Appareloffers a little bit of
everything from adaptive swimsuit coverups to made-to-measure
garments, but what really stands out for older adults are
their cardigans, capes and jackets for wheelchair users.
& Buckhas been selling adaptive
clothing for men and women since 1978 and offers items like
velcro-closure trousers and shirts for easier dressing as well
as zipper-back garments for dementia patients who sometimes
need assistance to stay dressed during the day.
an easy-to-access casual pant to make adult undergarment
changes less stressful for the wearer and caregiver.
in fleece clothing, including the popular unisex EasyWear
Readyspecializes in magnetic closure
button-down shirts, mostly for men.
sensory-friendly clothes for men and women, ideal for someone
with autism, shingles or another skin condition that makes
typical fabrics and clothing uncomfortable. The collection for
women includes some jeans with higher rise coverage.
Adaptive from Tommy Hilfiger offers designer jean
jackets with magnetic closures, t-shirts and shift dresses
with shoulder openings for easier dressing and classic sheath
dresses with magnetic seams.
buying a whole new wardrobe isn’t in your family’s budget, focus
on the items that your parent wears most often and consider
altering the existing items in their closet that they wear less
for Altering Adaptive Clothing
you sew, you may be able to alter some of your parent’s favorite
clothes for better fit and easier dressing. For example, opening
up the bottom few inches on the side seams of tops can help
wheelchair users stay covered without bunching or pulling of the
Magazine also has an extensive list oftips
for adaptive sewing, including placing pockets where
they’re easy to reach and avoiding seams in places where
pressure sores can form.
That Make Dressing Easier
without a wardrobe upgrade, you can help your parents dress more
easily. If they can easily use lightweight hand tools, here are
a few to consider:
item that’s helpful for picking up clothes off the floor or
taking them down off a hook is agrabber,
the kind of you pick up at the pharmacy.
you poke a wire loop through a buttonhole, catch the button
and pull it through the buttonhole. You can sometimes find
combination tools with a buttonhook on one end and a zip
puller on the other.
stickslook like short canes with
an s-shaped head and with a little practice, you can use them
to put on jackets, pull on pants, shirts and more.
shoe hornsare helpful for
putting on shoes when you can’t bend easily at the waist.
pullersloop a hook through the
small pull on a standard zipper so you can zip pants and
dresses more easily.
you worry that the growth in adaptive clothing is a fashion fad,
there are designers training every year specifically on this
type of wardrobe.The
Open Style Lab in NYCbrings together
designers and design students, engineers, therapists and senior
care communities to develop new garment designs for people with
of different physical needs.
a robo-advising portfolio optimizer that constructs tailored
strategies based on investors' holdings and preferences.
Adopters are similar to non-adopters in terms of demographics,
but have more assets under management, trade more, and have
higher risk-adjusted performance. The robo-advising tool
has opposite effects across investors with different levels
of diversification before adoption. It increases portfolio
diversification and decreases volatility for those that held
less than 5 stocks before adoption. These investors'
portfolios perform better after using the tool. At the same
time, robo-advising barely affects diversification for
investors that held more than 10 stocks before adoption.
These investors trade more after adoption with no effect on
average performance. For all investors, robo-advising
reduces -- but does not fully eliminate -- pervasive
behavioral biases such as the disposition effect, trend
chasing, and the rank effect, and increases attention based
on online account logins. Our results emphasize the
promises and pitfalls of robo-advising tools, which are
becoming ubiquitous all over the world.
empirically show that investors tend to buy higher beta
stocks following realized losses. This behavior is
observed in institutional as well as individual investors, but
is more pronounced among individual investors with lower
expertise, who on an average buy a new stock with up to 15%
higher beta than that of the old stock they were holding.
For an agent with utility consistent with prospect theory,
this behavior emerges as the optimal response to her problem
of maximizing utility within a mental account. Furthermore,
this behavior can aggregate up during market downturns and cause
pricing distortions in a direction similar to the beta anomaly.
With this insight, I suggest a modification to the betting
against beta trading strategy that can improve the Sharpe ratio
more than twofold.
ULRIKE MALMENDIER, University
of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, University
of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business, National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Centre for Economic Policy
Research (CEPR), Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Email:
firstname.lastname@example.org LESLIE SHENG SHEN, University of California, Berkeley -
Department of Economics Email:
that personal experiences of economic shocks can “scar'”
consumer behavior in the long run. We first illustrate the
effects of experience-based learning in a simple stochastic
life-cycle consumption model with time-varying financial
constraints. We then use data from the Panel Study of Income
Dynamics (PSID), the Nielsen Homescan Panel, and the Consumer
Expenditure Survey (CEX) to estimate the long-term effects of
lifetime experiences on consumption. We show that households
who have lived through times of high local and national
unemployment, or who have experienced more personal
unemployment, spend significantly less on food and total
consumption, after controlling for income, wealth, employment,
demographics, and macro-economic factors, such as the current
unemployment rate. The reverse holds for past experiences
of low unemployment. We also estimate significant
experience-based variation in consumption within household, i.
e., after including household fixed effects. At the same time,
lifetime experiences do not predict individuals' future income.
The Nielsen data reveals that households who have lived
through times of high unemployment are particularly likely to
use coupons and to purchase sale items or lower-end products.
As predicted by the experience-based learning model, the
effects of a given macro shock are stronger for younger than
for older cohorts. Finally, past experiences predict
beliefs about future economic conditions in the Michigan
Survey of Consumers (MSC), implying a beliefs-based channel. Our
results suggest a novel micro-foundation of fluctuations of
aggregate demand, and explain long-run effects of macroeconomic
institutional features of ECB monetary policy announcements,
we provide direct evidence for the risk premium channel of
central bank communication. We show that on days when the
ECB announces its monetary policy almost all of the
variation of bond yields is driven by communication.
Moreover, while the effect of monetary policy is homogeneous
across countries before the European debt crisis, we document
dramatic differences post crisis and show that communication
shocks drive a wedge between peripheral and core yields. We
empirically link the periphery-core wedge to break-up and
credit risk premia, and study this channel theoretically
through the lens of an equilibrium model in which central bank
communication reveals information about the state of the
literature finding a decrease in food expenditures at
retirement suggests households do not adequately save for
retirement, subsequent evidence that nutrient intake is
unaffected by retirement has tempered these concerns. We
further examine nutrient intake changes at retirement both by
analyzing a much wider range of datasets, including
longitudinal data, and by improving upon the empirical
methodology used in earlier work. Our analysis yields four
main results. First, unlike prior work, we find that caloric
and nutrient intake fall at retirement in numerous
cross-sectional datasets. We can reconcile these
contrasting results as being due to well-documented
differences and improvements in methodologies used to measure
food intake. Second, using longitudinal data, we also find
that intake falls at retirement. Third, we show that a
food consumption index used in prior work to capture the
relationship between permanent income and foods eaten can
severely underestimate the impact of retirement on
consumption. We show that a minor methodological
revision circumvents this bias and that the revised
consumption index falls at retirement. Finally, while
unemployment reduces the consumption index, we find, in
contrast to prior work, that the impact of retirement on the
consumption index is larger. Overall, we consistently find
that retirement reduces food intake.
6/24: Lots of news here- tough
to figure out. Other articles today talked about a glut of oil.
has come to an agreement, albeit a vague one, that has left oil
markets bullish and sent WTI and Brent soaring.
June 22, 2018
issued a communique
on Friday that called on a return to 100 percent compliance
for the group, down from 152 percent in May. The
announcement deferred country-specific allocations, likely
because they could not agree on the details. The decision likely
means that any country with spare capacity will be able to boost
production. In practice, Saudi Arabia and Russia will carry the
lion’s share. How individual countries make decisions about how
much to produce, while still trying to stay below a collective
cap, opens up a lot of uncertainty.
up on vague outcome. Oil prices moved
up on Friday morning, on expectations that the result from the
OPEC+ meeting won’t lead to a supply glut. In recent
days, there seemed to be a bit of convergence on a plan to boost
production, perhaps by around 600,000 bpd. That amount would
merely offset the declines from Venezuela over the past year,
and would not plug the entire supply deficit facing the market.
“The market caught up a little in terms of realizing that the
rumored increase was less than what is necessary to balance the
market,” Emily Ashford, director of energy research at Standard
Chartered, told the WSJ.
“Any increase in production will come at the expense of spare
capacity so that leaves the market much more vulnerable to
future supply shocks,” she added.
eyed 1 mb/d increase, but couldn’t agree. OPEC’s
technical committee recommended a supply increase of about 1
million barrels per day, although press reports widely noted
that such an increase would likely only be nominal, and actual
barrels put onto the market would reach only about 600,000 bpd
because several countries have no ability to boost output.
The recommendation came even as Iranian oil minister Bijan
Zanganeh walked out of a meeting on Thursday night, although he
met with his Saudi counterpart Friday morning. The discord
likely led to the vague decision on 100 percent compliance,
rather than on country-specific increases.
and gas methane emissions higher than expected. A
finds that the oil and gas industry might be leaking more
methane from operations than is commonly thought. The
study puts the methane leakage rate at about 2.3 percent of
total production, or 60 percent higher than the EPA estimates.
The difference is the equivalent of heating 10 million homes,
and it also cancels out some of the net climate benefit that
comes from switching from coal to gas for electricity.
to put biofuels obligations onto large refiners.
In a sign of retreat after outrage from the biofuels and corn
ethanol industries, the EPA is reportedly
set to propose putting biofuels obligations onto large refiners.
The agency had issued a series of waivers to smaller
refiners, allowing them to get out of buying and blending
biofuels, to the anger of the ethanol industry. After the
political fallout, the EPA seems to be reversing course, but
will shift those requirements onto large refiners. The move is a
sign of the political power of the corn lobby, as well as
Midwestern Republicans in Congress.
exits Carrizo, after activist campaign.
Activist private equity group Kimmeridge Energy Management sold
its position in Carrizo
Oil & Gas (NASDAQ: CRZO) this week after
a campaign to try to change the company’s strategy. Kimmeridge
tried to get Carrizo to sell its oil fields in the Eagle Ford
and to shift the company’s focus to the Permian. However,
Carrizo resisted and Kimmeridge ultimately decided to sell its
8.1 percent stake. Maintaining Eagle Ford assets turned out to
be a winner, now that Permian prices have plunged because of
natural gas output to soar 60 percent. A
new report from IHS finds that U.S. natural gas production
could jump 60 percent over the next 20 years, a finding that
suggests the shale gas revolution has decades of running room.
Dry gas production could hit 81 billion cubic feet per day this
year, but rise to 118 bcf/d by 2037. Natural gas is expected to
capture about 50 percent of the electricity market by 2040, up
from about a third today.
forces retake oil terminal. Libya
briefly saw the outage of about 450,000 bpd of supply because of
attacks from militants, combined with the destruction of several
oil storage tanks. Reuters reports that East Libyan forces have
retaken the shuttered oil ports of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, the
two largest in the country. The three storage tanks that were
destroyed will take years to repair. “Libyan production is very
low but we are going to resume very soon,” Mustafa Sanalla,
chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corp., told reporters
in Vienna. “After a couple of days we will resume, we start our
DUCs to rise. Pipeline bottlenecks are
forcing Permian drillers to leave more and more wells uncompleted.
The drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) has more than doubled
from the start of 2017, and should continue to rise as Permian
pipelines fill up. “Some companies will have to shut in
production, some companies will move rigs away, and some
companies will be able to continue growing because they have
firm transportation,” Pioneer
Resources (NYSE: PXD) CEO Scott Sheffield
Christi port receives funding for upgrade.The Port of Corpus Christi approved
$217 million for upgrades to equip the facility to handle large
oil tankers. The 1-million-barrel Suezmax and the
2-million-barrel VLCCs can only partially load at the facility
right now. The upgrade will expand the port’s – and the
country’s – export capacity.
recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence
(AI), we examine what type of human labor will be a substitute
versus a complement to emerging technologies. We argue that
these recent developments reduce the costs of providing a
particular set of tasks – prediction tasks. Prediction about
uncertain states of the world is an input into decision-making.
We show that prediction allows riskier decisions to be taken and
this is its impact on observed productivity although it could
also increase the variance of outcomes as well. We consider the
role of human judgment in decision-making as prediction
technology improves. Judgment is exercised when the objective
function for a particular set of decisions cannot be described
(i.e., coded). However, we demonstrate that better
prediction impacts the returns to different types of judgment
in opposite ways. Hence, not all human judgment will be a
complement to AI. Finally, we show that humans will delegate
some decisions to machines even when the decision would be
superior with human input.
seen in the past decade a sharp increase in the extent that
companies use data to optimize their businesses. Variously
called the `Big Data' or `Data Science' revolution, this has
been characterized by massive amounts of data, including
unstructured and nontraditional data like text and images, and
the use of fast and flexible Machine Learning (ML) algorithms in
analysis. With recent improvements in Deep Neural Networks
(DNNs) and related methods, application of high-performance ML
algorithms has become more automatic and robust to different
data scenarios. That has led to the rapid rise of an
Artificial Intelligence (AI) that works by combining many ML
algorithms together – each targeting a straightforward
prediction task – to solve complex problems. We will
define a framework for thinking about the ingredients of this
new ML-driven AI. Having an understanding of the pieces that
make up these systems and how they fit together is important for
those who will be building businesses around this technology.
Those studying the economics of AI can use these definitions to
remove ambiguity from the conversation on AI's projected
productivity impacts and data requirements. Finally, this
framework should help clarify the role for AI in the practice of
modern business analytics and economic measurement.
of poverty may reveal nothing about whether the poorest of the
poor are being lifted-up or left-behind, yet this is a
widespread concern among policy makers and citizens. The paper
assesses whether public spending on social protection benefits
the poorest and hence lifts the floor, and what role economic
development plays. Evidence is presented for the developing
world and the US. Across developing countries, a higher mean
income comes with a higher floor. The bulk of this income effect
is direct rather than via higher spending on social protection.
That spending generally lifts the floor though this is mainly
due to social insurance; on average, social assistance adds only
1.5 cents per day to the floor. Turning to the US, the paper
finds that the floor has been sinking over the last 30 years,
associated with an inequitable growth process. Food stamp
spending partially compensates the poorest, and helped stabilize
the floor in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The poorest
in the US gain more from food stamps than average spending on
food stamps, though the program’s impact on the floor per $
spent has fallen over time.
large number of measures for monitoring risk and uncertainty
surrounding macroeconomic and financial outcomes have been
proposed in the literature, and these measures are frequently
used by market participants, policy makers, and researchers in
their analyses. However, risk and uncertainty measures
differ across multiple dimensions, including the method of
calculation, the underlying outcome (that is, the asset
price or macroeconomic variable), and the horizon at which
they are calculated. Therefore, in this paper, we review
the literature on global risk, uncertainty, and volatility
measures drawing on internal and external academic research as
well as ongoing monitoring conducted by the Federal Reserve
Board’s economics divisions to catalog measures by method of
data collection, computation, and subject. We first explore a
set of non asset-marketbased measures of risk and uncertainty,
including news-based and survey-based uncertainty measures of
monetary policy and macroeconomic outcomes. We then turn to
asset-market-based measures of risk uncertainty for equity
prices, interest rates, currencies, oil prices, and inflation.
the last three decades, nearly half of the Arctic ice cap has
melted away, the oceans have acidified, much of the American
West has burned, lower Manhattan, South Florida, Houston, and
New Orleans have flooded, and average temperatures have
continued to climb. Just last week, a team of scientists
the rate of melt off Antarctica has tripled in the past decade;