reference to the limited fiduciary capabilities in the
planning industry (and more) and why they may/will remain as
such given sophomoric DOL rules and flaccid organizational
enforcement. Specific commentary to sexism and ethical
and moral lapses of society impacting women. Not the standard
for investors and advisers. The economic changes from
the Great Recession caused major adjustments in
investing. One of the major issues is the flip flop
of the correlations in bond funds versus equities
coupled with a truly lower return and an increased
overall risk. It will take a lot more effort to provide
adequate return for those in need and the discussion will
address pros and cons particularly for retirement purpose
Emphasis on risk, Click for full article.
not the Fed’s job to stop people from losing money.”
may have trains covered the same way in the future. Another
you ever been on BART in SF in the tube under the
Bay??? Can you imagine a suicide bomber???)
8/17: Where are we??
is meager while corporate profits are high. The modest 2.7
percent wage gains in the past year are getting
wiped out entirely by 2.9 percent inflation.
Gas is up 50 cents in the past year, Trump is running up the
deficit and 48 percent of country doesn’t have any money in
the stock market.
It's the deficit that will kill us. It's unsustainable. And
now I hear that the Russians and China are possibly sending
"war" satellites and as the U.S. ramps up our defense that
will cost the U.S. billions more each and every year. We
decided not to stop Russia with Ukraine and Crimea nor the
Chinese with the man made islands in the South China Sea but
we have to do something.
ratio (B/M), profitability, and asset investment exhibit
robust joint predictive power for the equity premium,
generating out-of-sample R2s of 7%, 20%, and 29%,
respectively, in one-quarter-, one-year-, and two-year-ahead
forecasts. Since profitability and investment are positively
correlated with each other yet predict future returns in
opposite directions, while B/M and profitability are
negatively correlated with each other yet predict future
returns in the same direction, the variables’ joint predictive
power is much higher than the sum of their standalone
counterparts. Just as Fama and French (2006, 2015, 2016) and
Hou, Xue, and Zhang (2014, 2015, 2017) show that profitable
firms who invest conservatively are associated with high
future alphas in the cross section, we find that high
aggregate profits and low asset growth precede high aggregate
stock returns in the time series. We also find that short-term
(long-term) asset growth predicts one-year-ahead
(two-year-ahead) stock returns—consistent with firms’
investment decisions being more responsive to changes in
discount rates that correspond to the investment’s time
horizon. To explain this pattern from a behavioral perspective
requires two types of sentiment—one that primarily influences
short-term investment and another that affects long-term
category of ‘recreation and culture’ masks softening
prices, say economists
EFM- could you ever believe in your
wildest imagination that the Financial Times would address
higher inflation in a major country due to the cost of computer
reduces per capita GDP growth when nominal interest
rates are constrained by the zero-lower bound
Using data on 168 countries from 1990 to 2015, Gauti
Eggertsson and Manuel Lancastre of Brown University and
Lawrence Summers of Harvard University document that
countries with more rapidly aging populations had higher GDP
growth per capita over the last 25 years. Since 1990, real
interest rates have also been declining as populations have
aged, suggesting that capital deepening explains the
positive relationship between aging and GDP growth per
capita, the authors argue. As a country’s population ages,
savings and, therefore, investment in productive capital per
worker rise, which increases output per worker. This
mechanism relies on real interest rates to adjust downwards
as needed to make investment equal savings. When real
interest rates are unable to adjust, for example due to
the zero-lower bound on nominal interest rates, aging
leads to secular stagnation. Indeed, the authors find
that aging led to slower growth in GDP per
capita after 2008 in those countries that were
constrained by the zero-lower bound.
EFM: I won't belabor this but LIBOR
was THE rate a lot of other rates were tied to. But it was being
much fanfare, the World Bank this week issued $1 billion of
two-year floating-rate notes tied to the U.S. Secured
Overnight Financing Rate, or SOFR. It’s the second sale of
such debt after a $6 billion offering from Fannie
Mae on July 26 with tenors of six months, 12 months and 18
months. Suddenly, the Libor alternative is picking up some
This appears/should reaffirm the U.S. as the standard bearer
of money in the world.
survey by Home Instead found that 53% of preretirees who
plan to leave their job in the next five years anticipate
going back to work at some point. The need to generate
additional income was the most common reason given, but
respondents also cited staving off boredom and keeping a
EFM- but the pay may not be good
even assuming a job can be found outside of a greeter at Wal
with China increases US employment and wages
Zhi Wang of George Mason University, Shang-Jin Wei of
Columbia University, and Xinding Yu and Kunfu Zhu of
Beijing’s University of International Business and Economics
use U.S. commuting zone-level data from 1990 to 2014 to
explore how exposure to trade with China affects local
employment and wages. The authors find that direct
competition with Chinese imports reduces manufacturing
sector employment. Employment also falls at U.S. firms that
do not compete directly with Chinese imports but sell their
output to manufacturers that do. However, these employment
declines are more than offset by employment gains
at non-manufacturing firms that use imported inputs
from China, so that trade with China actually increases
local employment overall. In addition, the authors find that
75 percent of workers in an average region experience real
wage growth because of trade with China.
the financial crisis of 2008, employment fell dramatically, as
was expected. But in the economic recovery that followed, only
certain jobs bounced back.
all know that employment fell dramatically during the
Great Recession. It was also slow to come back up
following the recession, during the recovery. This, of
course, is a well-known fact. What is perhaps less well
understood is why the jobs that did return were
primarily the higher-skill jobs, or higher-skill
‘cognitive’ jobs — meaning jobs that require a
fairly high level of education and working with
information technology or working creatively, and so on.
It did not really help lower-skill, so-called
‘routine’ jobs — jobs on the factory assembly line, for
example — recover as much.
we talk about “polarization,” this is exactly what we mean —
the distribution of wages becomes more polarized. We have very
high-skill workers, and we have very low-skill workers, but
this middle is, in some sense, disappearing.
our model — the way we set it up — this is a natural process.
When new technology comes about, this technology is much more
skill-intensive. The natural thing that happens is that
there’s demand for high-skill workers, so the workers should
go and get trained, become high-skill, acquire these skills
that are in demand — and everything is how it should be.
have declines in labor force participation that are not fully
explained by people going back to school, say, to acquire
skills, and then coming back. This is what our models say
should be happening. Of course we know in reality that
post-secondary enrollment did jump in the Great Recession,
exactly when our model predicts that should have happened. But
we also know there’s a lot of people who exited the labor
force and did not go to get trained and acquire new skills.
That is, of course, a source of concern because the longer
these people stay out of the labor force, the harder it is
going to be for them to re-enter, if they’re going to be
able to at all.
Though not addressed by the press or other research (at least
in my reading) is the fact that immigration of unskilled
workers may very well cause undue hardship on them as well
as our economy since they will remain unemployed. Even
excluding that, technology is replacing some of the most
horrid work that they currently do. For example, slaughter
houses are now moving to machinery that can kill cattle and
skin and breakdown the various parts with no humans involved.
Flipping burgers is already going the way of all machines.
8/16: Yield curve and 23.4 basis
A widely watched measure of the yield curve briefly dipped to a
new decade low on Wednesday morning, as the fallout from
Turkey’s escalating economic crisis ricocheted around the world.
The difference between two- and
10-year yields dropped to 23.4 basis points, below its previous
low of 23.6 basis points reached in mid-July. The measure
has garnered the attention of investors as an indicator of
economic downturn given that it has turned negative, or
“inverted”, before every recession of the past 50 years.
EFM- a basis point is 1/100 of
8/16: What to look for in hiring a
older adults, in-home non-medical care might be the key to
independence. However, the quality of care depends on
the quality of the caregiver. When looking for in-home care,
finding the best service can be a challenge. This
article offers suggestions on what to look for when hiring a
is In-Home Care?
caregivers provide assistance with activities of daily living
(ADL) such as meal preparation, dressing, grooming, medication
monitoring, transportation and light housekeeping. These
services should not be mistaken for home health services,
which offer skilled, medical services by licensed
professionals such as nurses and therapists. While
in-home caregivers may be trained and/ or certified, they
focus mostly on activities of daily living and are not
required to perform complex health care related tasks.
Programs such as Medicare, or Medicaid (Medi-cal) cover
Home Health Services, but do not usually cover non-medical
services. There are some long-term care insurance
policies that cover non-medical in-home care services.
Review your policy to determine whether in-home care is
covered by your insurance.
For Quality In-Home Care
are a number of ways to find in-home care. Referrals
from health care professionals and others who have used
in-home care may be the best source of quality care providers.
You can either hire the caregiver directly as an
employee, or use an agency.
are advantages and disadvantages to hiring a freelance
caregiver. Families often cite lower cost as the major
benefit. However, when hiring a freelance caregiver,
bear in mind costs related to being an employer. Employer
taxes, insurance and Worker’s Compensation will need to be
paid. Tax withholdings and payroll tax reports will have to be
made. In most cases, freelance caregivers do not qualify
as “Independent Contractors” according to tax and labor laws.
Trying to save costs while violating tax and labor laws can
put your family at great risk. Fines can be levied and
back taxes plus penalties can accrue. Work related injuries
might not be covered by your homeowner’s insurance. Live-in
caregivers who use your home as their main residence may be
considered a tenant. This may complicate things should you
need to terminate this person’s service. You should always
consult with tax insurance and legal professionals if you
choose to hire a freelance caregiver.
very important aspect of hiring a freelance caregiver is
safety. Has this person been convicted of a crime? What is
their work history? Be sure to have the applicant list their
experience and training. Check their references. Employee
application forms are available at office supply stores, and
can be used for each potential employee. It is also important
to verify that this person can legally work in the United
States. A form called the I-9 should be kept on file for the
employee. Fines ranging from $250 to $2,000 can be imposed on
those who hire illegal immigrants. Also, be sure to have a
written agreement with the caregiver to avoid potential wage
and labor disputes.
peace of mind, you may want to use agencies or registries that
offer pre-screened caregivers for you to hire directly.
Using a screening service does not relieve you of your
responsibilities as an employer if you hire the caregiver
directly. Agencies and companies who do background checks can
be found in the Yellow Pages or on the Internet.
option for finding caregivers is through an agency. In-home
care agencies usually offer licensed and bonded staff that
perform a variety of tasks. While it may be more expensive to
hire a caregiver through an agency, you will not be
responsible for costs such as accounting, insurance and taxes.
When choosing an agency, be sure to ask about what services
are provided. Find out about the company. How long have they
been in business? Are they with the Better Business Bureau?
Check their references. Compare costs, services and features
that they offer. Do not be afraid to ask questions.
Remember, you are the client, and ultimately you must
feel comfortable and confident with the caregiver’s services.
to Ask When Hiring a Caregiver
interviewing potential agencies and caregivers, there are many
important things to consider:
services are provided?
may provide light housekeeping, transportation, meal
preparation, medication monitoring, personal care, and
assistance with ambulation. Some agencies provide higher
levels of care such as incontinence care, heavy transfers and
Alzheimer’s care. Have the agency clearly state in
writing what services are provided.
they work a schedule according to your needs?
agencies have minimum numbers of hours per shift. Some offer
shift rates. Some charge more for holidays, nights and
weekends. Ask which holidays are observed by the agency.
are the costs? How are payments handled? What is the
agencies/caregivers charge by the hour, while others may
charge by the job or shift. You should outline in writing what
you are getting for your money. Some agencies require a
deposit before services begin. Find out what the deposit
covers and their refund policy. Additionally, ask about their
cancellation policy. Some agencies require advanced written
notice of cancellation. Prices can vary widely. The
cheapest is not always the best option. It pays to shop and
is the caregiver’s employment status?
the caregiver is the employee of the agency, then the agency
is responsible for bonds, taxes and insurance. Be wary of
agencies that claim the caregivers are “independent
contractors.” In most cases, caregivers do not qualify as
“independent contractors” according to tax and labor laws.
Their fees may seem low, but you could be deemed the employer
and assume the employer’s responsibilities for taxes and
insurance. Trying to save costs while violating tax and labor
laws can put your family at great risk. Fines can be
levied and back taxes plus penalties can accrue.
related injuries may not be covered by your home owner’s
insurance. There are no surety bonds that would cover
“independent” caregivers for theft, dishonesty or negligence.
The same considerations hold true if you hire an individual
“freelance caregiver.” Check with your legal and tax
advisor if you choose to go this route.
is the agency’s/caregiver’s track record? How long has
the agency been in business?
the Better Business Bureau to see if the agency has any
complaints on file. Obtain and verify references (especially
for freelance caregivers).
much skill and experience do the caregivers have? Does the
agency have skills and experience requirements for their
kind of training do they give to their caregivers? Experience
usually relates directly to skill. If your loved one has a
special need, such as Alzheimer’s care, be sure the caregiver
has experience and knowledge in this area.
is the caregiver’s background?
the agency perform a criminal background check on their
they legally work in this country?
is their driving history?
freelance caregivers, you can do a background check yourself.
The Department of Motor Vehicles can provide driving records
and the County Courthouse can do criminal records checks.
Resources can also be found in the phone book or on the
Internet. Be wary of caregivers reluctant to provide
the agency bonded, licensed and insured?
to see copies of the agency’s business or other required
licenses, liability insurance policy, Worker’s Compensation
insurance policy and surety bond. Keep copies for your
records in case of a future need.
there a cost for assessments?
initial assessment is vital to determining the type of care
your loved one needs. Some agencies charge fees for
you interview the caregiver before starting service?
want to find a caregiver you feel comfortable with. Ask about
the agency’s policy regarding interviewing caregivers. Most
offer this for free, while some charge a fee.
is the caregiver replacement policy? If your worker is sick
or quits, are emergency call services available?
should be a plan in place if your caregiver can’t work. Ask if
you can replace a caregiver if there is a problem and how soon
you can have a replacement.
many caregivers work for the agency?
is important to determine the agency’s ability to find a
replacement caregiver if needed. Smaller agencies have
fewer workers to call for replacements. Larger agencies have
more workers to choose from.
may have more questions to ask potential caregivers. Write
them down and keep notes on the responses. Finding the right
caregiver can be a tedious process, but you will feel better
knowing you have done your best. It is a very important
decision to bring a caregiver to your home. With the right
information, you can determine which agency or caregiver is
right for you.
EFM- Yes and no. If one uses the
conventional 'rules', it attempts to keep the risk level the
same year after year. The article notes"
rebalancing our portfolios may induce pain, and even punish us
with short-term losses, it becomes even more crucial to keep
the end destination — to increase the likelihood of our
achieving better investment outcomes over time — forefront in
our minds,” the article states.
allows an investor to maintain the desired risk exposure of a
portfolio over its life.
the article points out, the expected volatility of a portfolio
with an initial 60/40 allocation to stocks and bonds will
change if a bull market in equities has pushed its asset mix
the process is bogus. First and foremost, the old rule doesn't
work unless you understand correlation. That will snow most
the other hand, if one uses my 4 step Process (now being
marketed) that allows one to gorge on the higher returns
longer yet lower or exclude risk altogether. This has already
been addresses by a PhD in mathematics.
today's newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the
critical figures and data in the energy markets this
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this
week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top
news events taking place in the global energy complex over the
past few days. We hope you enjoy.
having the same intel as energy ‘insiders’ or even high level
government officials. Information
that traders and money managers pay $50,000 and more to
access. Oilprice’s new service is doing just that. High
quality, relevant, and actionable intelligence directly to
your mailbox every
month. Click here to
- By the end of the year, the EIA expects U.S. natural gas pipeline
capacity into the South Central region (the Gulf Coast) to
reach almost 19 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).
- The EIA notes that this is a historic
change in which the Gulf Coast becomes a demand center
rather than simply a source of natural gas supply. Tens of
billions of dollars have flowed into petrochemical complexes
and LNG export facilities.
- There are three key pipelines set to
come online towards the end of 2018 that will help carry
natural gas from the Marcellus Shale to the Gulf
year, nearly 4 in 10 sponsors said they were actively looking
for a new plan advisor—an all-time high in Fidelity’s survey’s
history. This year, 22% claim to be actively looking to switch
advisors, still historically high, said Fidelity’s Burgess,
but down markedly.
2017, nearly four in 10 sponsors said the reason they hired a
plan advisor was to help meet sponsors’ statutory fiduciary
obligations under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act.
for disability plans can help employees make better
research from employee benefits provider Unum (NYSE: UNM)
shows nearly half of U.S. workers (49 percent) spend 30
minutes or less reviewing their benefits prior to
enrollment, according to an online poll of 1,227 U.S.
workers conducted last month.
income shocks can either be the consequence of risky
choices or random events. A growing literature
analyzes the role of responsibility for neediness
for informal financial support of individuals facing
negative income shocks based on randomized
experiments. In this paper, we show that studying
this question involves a number of challenges that
existing studies either have not been aware of, or
have been unable to address satisfactorily. We show
that the average effect of free choice of risk on
sharing, i.e. the comparison of mean sharing across
randomized treatments, is not informative about the
behavioural effects and that it is not possible to
ensure by the experimental design that the average
treatment effect equals the behavioural effect.
Instead, isolating the behavioural effect requires
conditioning on risk exposure. We show that a design
that measures subjects preferred level of risk in
all treatments allows isolating this effect without
additional assumptions. Another advantage of our
design is that it allows disentangling changes in
giving behaviour due to attributions of
responsibility for neediness from other
explanations. We implement our design in a lab
experiment we conducted with slum dwellers in
Nairobi that measures subjects’ transfers to a
worse-off partner both in a setting where
participants could either deliberately choose or
were randomly assigned to a safe or a risky project.
We find that free choice matters for giving and that
the effects depend on donors’ risk preferences but
that attributions of responsibility play a
negligible role in this context.
(PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 -
Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École
normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut
National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École
des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC -
École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National
de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of
of new projects consider the returns of implemented
projects delivering the same impression, and invest
if the empirical mean return exceeds the cost. The
steady states of such economies result in
suboptimal investment decisions due to the
selection bias in the sampling procedure and the
dispersion of impressions across investors.
Assuming better impressions are associated with
higher returns, investors assessments of their
projects are overoptimistic, and there is
overinvestment as compared with the rational
benchmark. The presence of rational investors
aggravates the overoptimism bias of sampling
investors, thereby illustrating a negative
externality imposed by rational investors.
8/14: Just not right- President
Trump signed a $716 billion defense policy bill named for John
McCain, but he did not mention the Republican senator.
EFM- as I have addressed, there are
a number of Trump bills I support. But I just wish he could just
keep his mouth shut and his twitter account shut down. Shaming
John McCain was just wrong.
the biggest and most conservative asset managers on the street
has just put out an ominous warning to investors. Vanguard has
just told investors that a near term recession (by 2020) is
looking more likely. The asset manager is worried about the
flattening yield curve...[Read
8/14: Yes I am back to the grind
but first I have to figure out another computer cause the old
went on a hissy fit and then I had to stomp it to death.
8/17: Trump's gaffe- this
is not going to end well at all
Paul Ryan noted
«Нет никакой моральной эквивалентности между Соединенными Штатами и Россией, которая остается враждебной нашим самым основным ценностям и идеалам. Соединенные Штаты должны быть сосредоточены на том, чтобы привлечь Россию к ответственности и положить конец его мерзким нападкам на демократию»,
2010, fast-food jobs have grown nearly twice as fast as
employment over all, contributing to the economic recovery.
But rapid growth has created new problems. Some say
restaurants have grownfaster
causing a glut of competition that is another source of
pressure on business owners.
increased immigration enforcement: Nearly 20 percent of
workers are foreign-born.
economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that an
increased emphasis on education — and getting scholarships —
had contributed to the decline in working teenagers,
reflecting both the rising costs of education and the low
wages most people that age can earn.
Table 1. Historical Nominal Returns by Decade
The returns below show how each
asset class has performed on a nominal (absolute)
basis on a decade-by-decade basis. Long-term returns
(1926 through 2016) are also listed to provide a
*Three years short of a decade.
that has happened over this 76-year period, decade-long
returns were only negative once for large-cap stocks: in the
2000s because of the aforementioned recessions and financial
crisis. Returns were also low, but still positive on an
absolute basis, for large-cap stocks during the 1970s when
inflation hit double-digits. On the other hand, annualized
gains were well into the double-digits on a percentage basis
during three of the seven full decades.
2000s were not a lost decade for small-cap stocks. Though
their returns were the lowest of any decade since the Great
Depression, small-cap stocks still realized an annualized
return of 6.3% between 2000 and 2009. Small-cap stocks have
not routinely outperformed their large counterparts,
however—trailing in three different decades (1950–1959,
1980–1989 and 1990–1999).
Table 1 also shows returns for both
long-term and intermediate-term bonds. Though the 1970s were
associated with poor returns for bond prices, their high
yields provided much more income on a nominal (absolute)
basis. Long-term bonds only incurred negative nominal
returns during the 1950s when inflation was dormant and the
economy was enjoying a postwar boom. Falling interest rates
in the 1980s led to a multi-decade period of high returns
for long-term and intermediate-term bonds.
for each decade can be attributed to some event (or series),
such as the 1950s postwar prosperity, the 1970s high
inflation and oil embargos, the tech-driven boom of the
1990s and the dual-recession of the 2000s. Unless a person
is absolutely certain about a specific set of circumstances
recurring, basing future return expectations on a single
decade or another comparatively shorter period of time
should be avoided. Even if a person feels confident about
their forecast, a very large margin of error should still be
An interactive graph of the US
showing what work is needed where and for how much. Great for
new graduates. Educational
and occupational choices matter for your earnings,
but where you work matters, too. Employment
wages in some occupations vary substantially from state to
state, county to county, and city to city.
suggests that people often move to find work or accept a job,
but that there are many other factors that play a role in
where a person chooses to relocate.Cost
of living (including housing costs) and taxes, as well as a
host of other factors collectively referred to as amenities,
all contribute to a choice about where to move. Research shows
that workers value amenities like pleasant weather, clean air,
low crime, and proximity to cultural attractions.
median earnings for all working-age (25–64) full-time workers
in the United States is $41,000, although deviations from this
value are quite large. Education plays a large role in
earnings differences: workers with less than a high school
education have median earnings of $23,000, while those with an
advanced degree have median earnings of $73,000. Median
earnings range from $15,000 to $182,000 across 320 occupation
logic of the competitive model does indeed seem to suggest
that if people can gain by breaking the rules
no one is looking, they will do so, in the process creating
competitive pressure for rivals to do likewise.
opioid-related overdoses and deaths reaching record levels in
Canada, the top medical official in Toronto is calling for the
decriminalization of all drugs as part of a strategy to
treat illicit drug use as a public health and social issue,
not a criminal one.
7/15: This excerpt is by Branko
Milanovic on the issue of morality in business (or not).
Some may find his comments (see number 1) as cynical but as I
have gone through so many issues in my life, I really cannot
actually find myself in sympathy with the operations of Gekko,
Skilling etc., not because I like them as individuals but
because I see an iron logic in their behavior. Let me explain
that iron logic as composed of three elements.
ethics do not exist
exist and they are supposed to embody the general moral
rules so that we know what we can do, insuring that the
pursuit of our private interest leads to some greater
then just follow our private interests.
a (less than ideal) metaphor, imagine the rules as fences
around a path, like in bobsledding. You can do whatever you
want on that path, and should never hit the fence. But the
fence is designed by somebody else (society) in such a way
that while you yourself, never caring about why the fence was
set just where it was set, will maximize the speed of your own
movement and the overall average speed of all actors.*
am thus intellectually sympathetic to the view that personal
morality exists only outside economics or capitalism. I might
like the guys who are nice and ethical, but when it comes to
economics I really do not expect them to be so. I even very
much doubt when they claim they are. I tend to see them as
hypocritical. This is not in their job description.
is the philosophy that I think motivated Skilling and the
is what I called in the attached blog (“Kant and Henry”) the
idea of outsourcing morality. Morality is embedded in
the fence and I am going to play by the rules (but nothing
more) and, even when I consciously do not play by the rules
(as for example when I cheat and score a goal by hand), I do
not have to feel bad about it. It is the job of the
referee to catch me and punish me. In other words, there is
no internal ethical mechanism to stop me from scoring a goal
by any means I can find."
There is a lot more- but ultimately it is like the CFP Board
of Standards, CPA society, NAPFA and more regarding
illegality, incompetence and more. "We will not enforce an
ethical violation unless preceded by a legal one."
are not the same- quite obviously. But the referees addressed
above are at least actually looking for faults. We still do
not have referees in the finance industry competent to figure
out even the grossest violations. Think Bernie Madoff, ENRON,
major financial institutions of 2008, etc. Bernie was able to
do fraud in clear sight of regulators and he really only got
caught because an 'investor' proved his numbers were fraud.
Only then did the SEC do something. You have a lot of the
players who marketed worthless mortgages still doing business.
If you wish to win allegations or wrong doing, you better have
a hard head and a lot of money because you will become
ostracized. Think about the women of #MeToo movement. You can
understand why they did not file grievances- they were right
but the powerful have a lot of clout. I applaud the movement
to get justice- at least decency.
states will have just under half of the total population of
the country, 49.5 percent, according to the Weldon Cooper
Center’s estimate. The next eight most populous states will
account for an additional fifth of the population, up to 69.2
percent — meaning that the 16 most populous states will be
home to about 70 percent of Americans.
studies show that if investors could predict in advance
when recessions will begin and end, they could enjoy superior
returns to the returns earned by a buy and hold investor.
Specifically, if an investor switched from stocks to cash or
short-term Treasuries 4 months before the start of a recession
and back to stocks 4 months before the end of the recession,
he or she would gain almost 5 percentage points over the buy
and hold investor.
A true statement but useless. The inverted yield curve in 2000
or 2008 indicate a recession- probably in 12 to 14 months
though it could have been shorter or longer. Did anyone
actually hit that- or better yet, right at the top?/ Not that
I remember, Certainly getting back in 4 months before the end
save by luck.
it's bouncing around- though higher right now
the global oil market being hit by multiple outages and the
sanctions on Iran promising to bring yet more oil offline, the
return of Libyan supply this week is keeping oil prices down
July 13th, 2018
prices held steady after Wednesday’s steep selloff, with the
return of Libyan supply keeping prices in check despite
reports of a tight global market.
insurance (LTCi) claims are not filed as early as
conventional wisdom would seem, new research indicates.
may come as a surprise to people who don’t realize that LTCi
claims tend to start when claimants are in the 80s and 90s,
that is much better for the company. It gets premiums longer
and the payout is less (since policyholder is closer to death
7/15: Trump--The presumptive
gall to tell May what to do. It's far beyond tactless- it is
an act of meddling in country's innate rule to decide what
they have a right to do. America rightly believes that Russia
interfered in our election- and this was a boorish
insufferable egomaniac (stable genius???)
obstructing another country's right to govern as they
see fit. If it was something that was so wrong, it had to be
best expressed in private.
President Trump blasted Prime Minister Theresa May's compromise,
pro-business Brexit plan, according to the Sun: "I actually
told Theresa May how to do it, but she didn’t listen to me.”
He also warned that May's approach could imperil any future
trade deal between the United States and Britain
good times for U.S. equities may be about to stop rolling.
After outperforming much of the rest of global markets over
the past decade and continually hitting new record highs,
U.S. stocks are likely to become the international laggards
over the coming decade, as per the opinions of strategists
at Morningstar Investment Management Europe.
bearish forecast for U.S. equities finds some support, at
least in the near term, from analysts calling the end of the
The signs are all there, Kempen Capital Management’s chief
strategist Roelof SalomonstoldCNBC
late last week, “we see yield curve flattening, we see
credit spreads widening, we see defensives slowly becoming
outperformers, it’s a classical late-cycle story.”
can really hurt. In my opinion, this article in the Huntington
Post is "you can't beat City Hall"- in that the odds are
stacked against you. It is also the reason that few women-
until recently- did not go to HR, the press et al when sexual
situations occurred. You make your own decision with the
issues presented. .
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if it was 45,000,000 I would have filled it out
Reserve economists have determined the gap between two- and
10-year US Treasurys might be a less accurate indicator of
recession risk than the spread between the interest rate
on three-month Treasurys and the rate expected by the
market in 18 months. The Federal Reserve Bank of
Atlanta is exploring any correlation between eurodollar
contracts and the approach of recession.
7/13: North Korea did not show
up regarding the returns of American soldiers. Is it them or
China pulling the chain??? It would not surprise me if China-
the trade war may not be in full force but there is enough
acrimony to mess up the 'deal' with North Korea.
7/13: Kinda high- add in the
trade war and the public is going to be hit hard by these
costs increases. You also have gas going way up.
Labor Department figures show producer prices posted a 0.3%
June rise for an annual 3.4% rate, the biggest increase
since November 2011. The escalating costs of services and
motor vehicles were key in driving up producer inflation.
health of less-educated people is poorer and has improved less
over time than their more-educated coworkers.
workers haven’t been affected very much by the change, because
they’ve never been big beneficiaries of employer retirement
plans. In the 1990s, they could claim just 11 percent of the
value in pensions, and today they hold 11 percent of the
wealth in 401(k) plans.
they have generally shorter lifespans, a retirement delayed
translates to fewer benefit checks – and smaller financial
gains – over their years in retirement.
marriage rates have seen a sharper decline – from 88 percent
to 64 percent in a decade – than the population’s overall
decline. So fewer high-school-educated men are feeling
the pressure from a working wife to postpone retirement.
7/13: Richard Laterman CFA-
Continued Flight of Capital to America
June produced a continued flight to the USD,
which rose almost 1% against its global peers (DXY +0.7%). This
flow of capital benefitted US equities, bonds and
real-estate (the best-performing asset class last
month, rising over 4%). Sustained strength in the US economy
and an interest-rate hike (and hawkish tone) from the Fed
played a role in this dynamic. Dollar strength acted as a
large headwind against global diversified strategies,
while shorter-term momentum strategies also suffered due
to erratic price gyrations across most asset-classes.
Measured in USD, the vast majority of
international asset-classes experienced losses of varying
degrees, with particular pain borne by commodities (-1.9%)
and emerging market stocks (-4.4%). The latter lost for the
fifth consecutive month in the longest losing streak in
almost 3 years. Crude oil bucked the lower trend in
commodities by reversing its May swoon in a late month
surge. Renewed tensions over immigration and weaker economic
data in the EU drove down the major bourses (FTSE Europe
-0.6%), while the open economies of Asia were rattled by the
looming trade war (FTSE Pacific -2.6%).
With summer at full steam in the northern hemisphere, the
seasonal decrease in trading volumes has the tendency to
mask underlying trends. But as investors readjust their
expectations and portfolios to a new world order of
protectionism and autocratic rulers in weakening
democracies, investors are shifting from a “return ON
capital” mindset to one more focused on “return OF capital”.
Global diversification and risk management remain our
best defense against an ever more volatile scenariors
in weakening democracies, investors are shifting from a
“return ON capital” mindset to one more focused on “return
OF capital”. Global diversification and risk management
remain our best defense against an ever more volatile
There is article after article addressing how many
retirees want to work in retirement/will work in retirement=
and all the articles have 'various facts' that are much
different than another. If the following is actually true, the
6% of working retirees does not bode well well for figuring on
the extra income those retirees (52%) expect to make.
52% of baby boomers who are still in the workforce expect to
be employed after retirement, only 6% of retirees work,
according to a survey from PGIM Investments. Pre-retirees
increasingly base the decision on when to retire upon how
much money they have, the survey also found.
one-third of millennials said they are not saving for
retirement because they don't see the point when "anything
can happen between now and then," according to PGIM
Investment's 2018 Retirement Preparedness Survey. More than
half of millennials surveyed said they plan on retiring
whenever they have enough saved.
some point, people with Alzheimer’s disease will need help
with bathing, grooming, and dressing. Because these are
private activities, people may not want help. They may feel
embarrassed about being naked in front of caregivers. They
also may feel angry about not being able to care for
people with Alzheimer’s disease take a bath or shower can be
one of the hardest things you do. Planning can help make the
person's bath time better for both of you.
person with Alzheimer’s may be afraid. To reduce these fears,
follow the person's lifelong bathing habits, such as doing the
bath or shower in the morning or before going to bed. Here are
other tips for bathing.
leave a confused or frail person alone in the tub or shower.
check the water temperature before he or she gets in the tub
plastic containers for shampoo or soap to prevent them from
a hand-held showerhead.
rubber bath mat and put safety bars in the tub.
sturdy shower chair in the tub or shower. This will support
a person who is unsteady, and it could prevent falls. You
can get shower chairs at drug stores and medical supply
use bath oil. It can make the tub slippery and may cause
urinary tract infections.
for a Bath or Shower
the soap, washcloth, towels, and shampoo ready.
sure the bathroom is warm and well lighted. Play soft music
if it helps to relax the person.
matter-of-fact about bathing. Say, "It's time for a bath
now." Don't argue about the need for a bath or shower.
gentle and respectful. Tell the person what you are going to
sure the water temperature in the bath or shower is
the Bath or Shower
the person with Alzheimer’s to do as much as possible. This
protects his or her dignity and helps the person feel more
a towel over the person's shoulders or lap. This helps him
or her feel less exposed. Then use a sponge or washcloth to
clean under the towel.
the person by talking about something else if he or she
him or her a washcloth to hold. This makes it less likely
that the person will try to hit you.
a Bath or Shower
rashes or infections by patting the person's skin with a
towel. Make sure the person is completely dry. Be sure to
dry between folds of skin.
the person has trouble with incontinence, use a protective
ointment, such as Vaseline, around the rectum, vagina, or
the person with Alzheimer’s has trouble getting in and out
of the bathtub, do a sponge bath instead.
with Alzheimer’s often need more time to dress. It can be hard
for them to choose their clothes. They might wear the wrong
clothing for the season. They also might wear colors that
don't go together or forget to put on a piece of clothing.
Allow the person to dress on his or her own for as long as
out clothes in the order the person should put them on, such
as underwear first, then pants, then a shirt, and then a
the person one thing at a time or give step-by-step dressing
away some clothes in another room to reduce the number of
choices. Keep only one or two outfits in the closet or
the closet locked if needed. This prevents some of the
problems people may have while getting dressed.
three or four sets of the same clothes, if the person wants
to wear the same clothing every day.
loose-fitting, comfortable clothing. Avoid girdles,
control-top pantyhose, knee-high nylons, garters, high
heels, tight socks, and bras for women. Sports bras are
comfortable and provide good support. Short cotton socks and
loose cotton underwear are best. Sweat pants and shorts with
elastic waistbands are helpful.
or large zipper pulls for clothing, instead of shoelaces,
buttons, or buckles. Try slip-on shoes that won't slide off
or shoes with Velcro®straps.
the most part, when people feel good about how they look, they
feel better. Helping people with Alzheimer’s brush their
teeth, shave, or put on makeup often means they can feel more
like themselves. Here are some grooming tips.
mouth care helps prevent dental problems such as cavities and
the person how to brush his or her teeth. Go step-by-step.
For example, pick up the toothpaste, take the top off, put
the toothpaste on the toothbrush, and then brush. Remember
to let the person do as much as possible.
your teeth at the same time.
the person clean his or her dentures. Make sure he or she
uses the denture cleaning material the right way.
the person to rinse his or her mouth with water after each
meal and use mouthwash once a day.
a long-handled, angled, or electric toothbrush, if you need
to brush the person's teeth.
the person to see a dentist. Some dentists specialize in
treating people with Alzheimer’s. Be sure to follow the
dentist's advice about how often to make an appointment.
a woman to wear makeup if she has always used it. If needed,
help her put on powder and lipstick. Don't use eye makeup.
a man to shave, and help him as needed. Use an electric
razor for safety.
the person to the barber or beauty shop. Some barbers or
hairstylists may come to your home.
the person's nails clean and trimmed
7/12: The dollar is
softening and oil prices are rising. Life just got harder.
population numbers are projected to reach 8 billion around
2023, 9 billion by 2050 and expected to level off around 10
to 12 billion by 2100.Thomas
world's population has reached the vicinity of 7.5 to 7.6
1960, world population has grown exponentially by about
one billion every 13 years.
have a large ecological footprint — we are the most
populous mammal on Earth today.
the Earth will only have capacity for the population to a
point until premature death by starvation and disease
balances the birth rate.
Health Organization figures show 2.1 billion people lack
access to safe drinking water, and 4.5 billion lack
1 billion around 1800,
a doubling time of about 300 years; 2 billion in 1927, a
doubling time of 127 years; and 4 billion in 1974, a doubling
time of 47 years.
According to the Worldwatch
Institute, an environmental think tank, the Earth has1.9
hectaresof land per person for growing
food and textiles for clothing, supplying wood and absorbing
waste. The average American uses about 9.7 hectares.
data alone suggest the Earth can support at most one-fifth
of the present population, 1.5 billion people, at an
American standard of living.
is vital. Biologically, an adult human needs less than 1
gallon of water daily. In 2010, the US used355
billion gallonsof freshwater, over
1,000 gallons (4,000 liters) per person per day. Half
was used to generate electricity, one-third for irrigation,
and roughly one-tenth for household use: flushing toilets,
washing clothes and dishes, and watering lawns.
7.5 billion people consumed water at American levels, world
usage would top 10,000 cubic kilometers per year. Total world
supply — freshwater lakes and rivers — is about91,000
Earth supports industrialized standards of living only
because we are drawing down the "savings account" of
non-renewable resources, including fertile topsoil,
drinkable water, forests, fisheries and petroleum.
Most of the people in the study
were taking medications to keep their blood pressure under
control, but she notes that higher readings, even if they
weren’t excessively high, were associated with more brain
lesions. “We are not talking here about people with very
high blood pressure,” she says. “We’re talking about pretty
average blood pressure and what blood pressure across the whole
range of readings can do to the brain.”
more research is done, Arvanitakis says the results should
encourage people to focus on maintaining healthy blood
pressure not just for their heart, but for brain health, as
well. “Many, many issues are important for brain health and
for avoiding brain diseases,” she says, “so we should consider
them all in order to be as healthy as possible as we grow into
the later stage of life.”
7/12:The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle says that you can't know the
exact position and the speed of an object at the same time.
The closer you get to knowing one, the further you get from
the other. .
are questions caregivers face on a daily basis. How do we
balance between too much and too little care? How do we
balance what we think needs to be done with what might be most
family members and other caregivers often sabotage
well-intended efforts to help their loved ones simply because
they haven’t thought about answers to basic questions. And
when it comes to recommending changes in someone’s home, the
balancing act can be particularly acute. This is a place where
someone has lived all his life, where she feels comfortable,
where he feels safe. The fact is, however, that while most
people say they want to live in their homes as long as
possible, most are not designed to allow them to age
successfully in place.
not just the ill, but the “well elderly” who experience the
effects of aging. Aging affects vision, mobility, dexterity
and endurance. Arthritis or other degenerative diseases may
make it difficult to do the things one used to do. This
usually translates into some very real and practical problems
at home. The three most common problems are: getting in and
out of the house; using the bathroom; and going up and down
the stairs. Because most people are unaware that simple home
modifications can alleviate these problems, many develop
coping strategies to stay in their homes, but put them at risk
for accidents or injury.
approaching the possibility of home modifications can be
sensitive, the right preparation and understanding can make
all the difference. It’s a fact of life. As people age, their
bodies change and they may have difficulty performing certain
daily activities because of physical and cognitive
limitations. So the house that was once perfect for them may
not be anymore. Consider this, when couples have their first
child they make changes around the home. But very few realize
that as they get older they also need to make changes to make
the home more appropriate for this stage as well.
an occupational therapist who works in a county office in
aging, I see attempts at this balancing act on a daily basis.
Some successful. Some not. But all well intended. While an
occupational therapist has specialized skills and expertise to
match an environment to a person’s abilities, there are simple
steps family caregivers can use.
Investigate and Raise Awareness
best first step, even before you raise the home modification
issue with your loved one, is to build a list of helpful
resources for yourself. If you’ve ever tried to find
particular products or home contractors for general work, you
know how difficult this process can be. Who do you trust? What
is the right price? Who have others used before?
investigating resources can be the biggest obstacle a person
faces when considering home modifications, becoming aware of
different products and services can really help to facilitate
this process. Subscribing to a catalogue that carries home
modification products is a good idea and can easily be found
by conducting a quick “Google” search on the subject. If you
find something you think might be immediately useful, try
introducing the idea of change in the form of a gift, like a
new bathmat with non-skid backing. Or, if some regular home
maintenance is already being performed, include handrails, if
necessary, as part of that project.
resources, like area agencies on aging, can be enormously
helpful and are good places to start. These agencies may be
knowledgeable about products and local services that can help
with home modifications and offer referrals on aging resources
– both subsidized and private. Sometimes, resources may
be in your own back yard. Neighbors and friends who have
successfully adopted changes can be great role models
a professional who specializes in aging is the best person to
provide a complete assessment, there certainly are things
caregivers can begin to do that will be enormously helpful
when a professional is brought in.
observe and look out for any changes in the home and with the
person. As you look around the home, ask yourself if the
environment has changed in any way. Is it clean? Is anything
broken? Is there food in the kitchen? Has the laundry been
done? As for the person, have you noticed whether they are
forgetting things? Are medications being taken? Are bills
being paid? It’s good to keep an eye out for any kind of
change in typical, everyday behavior.
are things you can learn from observing. There are also things
you can learn by asking. You might not always get a complete
response, but you will have started the dialogue and
reinforced your efforts in raising awareness.
kinds of things are you having difficulty doing at home?
are you not doing now that you used to be able to do, or
that you still want to do?
are the reasons you don’t do those things?
feel unsafe and which are you unable to do?
important to problem-solve together. If you strongly impose
your own ideas, they run the risk of being ignored. Approach
the subject by letting your family members know that you are
concerned about their health and safety and assure them that
you don’t assume that getting older means self-awareness and
understanding are diminished.
Consult a Professional
truth is, no matter how prepared you might be, no matter what
kind of approach you take, you should count on a certain
amount of resistance to your offer of help. A soft, patient
approach is key, but in the end, it may not be all that is
occupational therapist can match an environment to a person’s
abilities so they can do what they want and need to do at
home. The occupational therapist’s unique, three-pronged
approach – looking at the person, the task and the environment
– results in an individualized assessment that matches a
person’s physical and cognitive abilities to the features of
the physical environment allowing them to do what they want
and need to do. It enables people to live what they consider
to be full and meaningful lives.
be honest, while utilizing the resources of an occupational
therapist may provide enormous benefit to your loved one, it
also relieves an enormous amount of pressure from the
caregiver. The external professional can come in and ask
questions in a way that produces the kind of responses that
help lead to the development of an action plan.
OT can walk into the home and immediately begin to identify
what a person is doing well and can emphasize the person’s
success. For example, she might say, “I notice you have
cleared everything out which really helps in preventing falls.
Are there other areas that you would like to focus on?”
occupational therapist can take the blame off of the person
and put it on the environment – it’s not you – it’s the home.
Explaining that most houses were built when people’s life
expectancies were not nearly as long really rings true for
process of change
essential to recognize and think about changes before they are
needed rather than waiting for a crisis situation that may
force a person to be removed from a home. Advanced planning
empowers the person to make changes for themselves rather than
have someone else step in. Often, it you wait until a crisis,
individuals will resist even more.
change and the adoption of new behaviors to occur slowly. The
process usually takes several steps including:
the planning stage, consider the Home Modification Strategies
recently released from the American Occupational Therapy
Association (see sidebar). This resource offers a room-by-room
guide of things to look for and changes to consider in the
his famous graduation speech turned book, Dr. Seuss reminds us
the Places You’ll Go, to:
with care and great tact / And remember that Life’s a Great
Balancing Act / Just never forget to be dexterous and deft /
And never mix up your right foot with your left.
is a great balancing act, but not an impossible one. Through
awareness, education, planning and action, you can help your
loved ones fulfill their desire to remain in their homes for
as long as possible.
40% of the world’s 7.6 billion people live within 62 miles
(100km) of an ocean coast. we
collectively treat the oceans worse than most of us treat the
inside of our cars. Every year, anywhere from about 8 to 12
million US tons of plastic end up in the world’s oceans.
70% of all marine garbage sinks to the bottom.
Fed is getting seriously hawkish: In theminutestoday,
it revealed that instead of thinking about backing off with
its rate hikes, it's throwing out the flattening yield curve.
explained what factors - in addition to the "gradual" rise in
the federal funds rate, as per the Fed's rate hikes - cause
the yield curve to flatten that make it unreliable as a
"reduction in investors' estimates of the longer-run neutral
real interest rate"
longer-term inflation expectations"
level of term premiums in recent years relative to
historical experience reflecting, in part, central bank
asset purchases" - meaning that QE are artificially
repressing long-term yields in relationship to shorter-term
according to "some participants," these types of factors
"might temper the reliability of the slope of the yield curve
as an indicator of future economic activity," the minutes
“Advice for Future Corpses (and Those Who Love Them),” by the
writer, palliative-care nurse and Zen Buddhist Sallie Tisdale
— a wild and brilliantly deceptive book. It is a putative
guide to what happens to the body as it dies and directly
after — and how to care for it. How to touch someone who is
dying. (“Skin can become paper-thin, and it can tear like
paper. Pressure is dangerous.”) How to carry a body and wash
it. How to remove its dentures.
walks readers through every conceivable decision they will
have to make — whether to die in the hospital or at home, how
to handle morphine’s side effects and how to breathe when it
becomes difficult (inhale through pursed lips).
the caretaker, she writes: “You are the defender of modesty,
privacy, silence, laughter and many other things that can be
lost in the daily tasks. You are the guardian of that person’s
the evolution and main drivers of residential investment,
using a panel with quarterly data for 15 advanced economies
since the 1970s. Residential investment is a notably
volatile component of real GDP in all countries in the
sample. We find real house price growth, net migration
inflows and the size of the existing housing stock to be
significant drivers of residential investment across various
model specifications. We also detect important asymmetries:
interest rate increases affect residential investment more
than interest rate cuts, and interest rate changes have
larger effects on residential investment when its share in
overall GDP is rising. Finally, we show that adding
information on residential investment significantly improves
the performance of standard recession prediction models.
Smith| Updated December 27, 2017
— 5:52 PM EST
the traditional approach to portfolio
construction, investors determine theirrisk
select investments based on the amount of risk
they are willing to take. In more technical
are driven by risk tolerance.
the exact opposite of the traditional approach
to investing. Rather than focusing on risk,
the Sortino ratio focuses on the
investor's desired return. Understanding the
differences, both broad and subtle, between
these approaches can help investors approach
portfolio construction in the manner mostconsistent
with their investment objectives.
a Focus on Goals
initially asked to define their investment
goals, many investors start out with a single
objective that can be summed up as "I want to
make as much money as I can." When presented
with investment strategies that provide an
opportunity to achieve significant gains in
exchange for the possibility of sustaining
significant losses, many of these investors
revise their investment goals to something
more along the lines of "I want to make as
much money as I can withoutsustaining
significant losses." It is at this stage
that serious planning can begin—and the need
to measure risk becomes relevant.
an investor's perspective, risk and return
have a direct relationship, with low levels of
risk associated with low potential returns and
high levels of risk associated with the
potential for high returns. The concept that
invested money can render higher returns only
if it is subject to the possibility of being
lost is often referred to as "therisk-return
of the risk-return tradeoff, investors must be
personal levels of risk tolerancewhen
selecting investments. The goal instead is to
understand the balance between the level of
returns generated and the amount of risk that
must be taken in order to generate those
returns. To evaluate this balance, investors
need to be able to quantify and measure risk.
ratio, derived in 1966 by William
Sharpe, is one of the most commonly used
measures of risk and return. It is calculated
by subtracting the rate of return on a
risk-free investment from the rate of return
for the investment under consideration and
dividing the result by the standard deviation
of the investment's returns. The mathematical
formula for calculating the Sharpe ratio is:
7/10: TheSortino ratio,
developed by Dr. Frank A. Sortino in 1980, refines the concept
introduced by the Sharpe ratio. While the Sharpe measures both
upside and downside volatility, the Sortino ratio captures
only downside volatility. The calculation of the
Sortino ratio is similar to the calculation of the Sharpe
ratio except it uses downside deviation for the denominator,
ignoring positive returns, instead of standard deviation and
replaces the risk-free rate of return with the rate of return
from a target defined by the investor. The mathematical equation
is as follows:
a closer look, the target rate of return can be the rate
needed to achieve a specific financial goal over a specific
period of time, the rate needed to match or beat a given
benchmark, or any other rate desired by the investor.
focus on downside risk makes the Sortino ratio more
relevant to investors because it looks at potential losses as
opposed to simply volatility. Investing, after all, is
generally focused on making money not just on mitigating risk.
Also, the investor-defined benchmark aligns well with the
focus on making money. While the risk-free rate of return can
certainly be used if it aligns with an investor's objectives,
a risk-free benchmarkmay be a totally
inappropriate comparison if, for example, the investor has a
portfolio of large-capitalization stocks that are more likely
to behave like theStandard
and Poor's 500 Index, theDow
Jones Industrial Averageor another
equity benchmark. With the Sortino ratio, investors are
free to choose the benchmark that best matches their
EFM- Many Americans were justifiably outraged when
Obama let Assad kill more of his people when he 'knew' he
Americans would intervene. Obviously we didn't and that is a
stain on Obama. But now we have a RUSSIAN backed attack that has
forced 325,000 Syrians to flee their homes in 100 degree heat
and with no water nor food,And the borders are closed.
What are we doing? Nothing- just sitting by with perhaps an
utterance of 'this cannot go on and is wrong, immoral' or
something of that ilk.
Maybe we sit back because Russia is
involved and Trump is going to have a sleepover with Putin
Assad should have been pushed out long ago. We blew it before
and it looks like we will blow it again. The death toll is over
400,000 with the Syrian regime so what's a few thousand more.
Anti Trump. No. I was pissed at Obama and this is no different.
(And Trump pissed all over Obama for his refusal to help)
Neither one had a cogent international policy that had any guts
But I will ask this- just why is
Trump having a personal meeting with Russia right now? Syria may
not even be mentioned so what's the big deal??? More photo op as
with Kim???? Free caviar??
Most nursing homes have overstated
their staffing levels in reports to the government,
effectively falsifying their records
and confirming the suspicions of many families that
the number of caretakers was often inadequate.
1.4 million people receive care in skilled nursing
facilities. The new federal data reveals frequent
and significant fluctuations in day-to-day staffing.
discrepancy can be particularly acute on the
weekends — when, one resident said, it becomes “like
a ghost town.”
Our allies are going to be laughing
at Trump about being taken by Kim. Same goes for Pompeo- though
I can see he didn't want his real thoughts to come out. But I
guess Trump knew it was coming because he 'read; Kim in just a
minute. North Korea played the U.S. and won. Will the U.S. and
South Korea go back to their war games????
This is an absolute mess. Maybe Trump can cry on Putin's
So am I totally against Trump?? No. I thought he should have
gone to see Kim. But to be taken like this puts the U;S. in bad
straits. We look like schmucks.
am one hundred per cent sure that this black person
is tying her shoes in a suspicious way.”
just saw a brown person illegally cross the border
from Vermont into New Hampshire.”
A minority glared at my dog.”
I called five minutes ago, but that black person is
a black woman in my yoga class who’s stealing my
Wealthy not particularly happy with advisors
wealth reportfound thatglobal
satisfaction levels for wealth managers among
high-net-worth individuals stood in the low 60%range
in the first quarter. Even with a year-over-year increase in
satisfaction, this was still below a “passing grade” of 70%.
the kicker: Over the past two years, investors enjoyed
robust investment returns. Capgemini said this suggested
thatinvestment returns by themselves
are insufficient to sustain a wealth management business.
report said the wealth of individuals with $1 million or
more of investable assets surpassed the $70 trillion
threshold, with 1.6 million people joining their ranks
globally. High-net-worth wealth grew by 10.6% year on year,
a sixth consecutive year of gains, and will surpass $100
trillion by 2025
noted that several concerns may be driving global investors’
subdued satisfaction levels:overall
wealth management fee levels, growing need for
personalized service and the desire for broader value
delivery across investment and non-investment areas.
the summer, it is important for everyone, especially older
adults and people with chronic medical conditions, to be
aware of the dangers of hyperthermia. Hyperthermia is an
abnormally high body temperature caused by a failure of the
heat-regulating mechanisms in the body to deal with the heat
coming from the environment. Heat stroke, heat syncope
(sudden dizziness after prolonged exposure to the heat),
heat cramps, heat exhaustion and heat fatigue are common
forms of hyperthermia. People can be at increased risk for
these conditions, depending on the combination of outside
temperature, their general health and individual lifestyle.
people, particularly those with chronic medical conditions,
should stay indoors, preferably with air conditioning or at
least a fan and air circulation, on hot and humid days,
especially when an air pollution alert is in effect. Living
in housing without air conditioning, not drinking enough
fluids, not understanding how to respond to the weather
conditions, lack of mobility and access to transportation,
overdressing and visiting overcrowded places are all
lifestyle factors that can increase the risk for
without air conditioners should go to places that do have
air conditioning, such as senior centers, shopping malls,
movie theaters and libraries. Cooling centers, which may be
set up by local public health agencies, religious groups and
social service organizations in many communities, are
risk for hyperthermia may increase from:
changes to the skin such as poor blood circulation and
inefficient sweat glands
substantially overweight or underweight
lung and kidney diseases, as well as any illness that causes
general weakness or fever
blood pressure or other health conditions that require
changes in diet. For example, people on salt-restricted
diets may be at increased risk. However, salt pills should
not be used without first consulting a physician.
perspiration, caused by medications such as diuretics,
sedatives, tranquilizers and certain heart and blood
of multiple medications. It is important, however, to
continue to take prescribed medication and discuss possible
problems with a physician.
stroke is a life-threatening form of hyperthermia. It occurs
when the body is overwhelmed by heat and is unable to
control its temperature. Heat stroke occurs when someone’s
body temperature increases significantly (above 104 degrees
Fahrenheit) and shows symptoms of the following: strong
rapid pulse, lack of sweating, dry flushed skin, mental
status changes (like combativeness or confusion),
staggering, faintness or coma. Seek immediate emergency
medical attention for a person with any of these symptoms,
especially an older adult.
you suspect someone is suffering from a heat-related
the person out of the heat and into a shady, air-conditioned
or other cool place. Urge the person to lie down.
you suspect heat stroke, call 911.
a cold, wet cloth to the wrists, neck, armpits and/or groin.
These are places where blood passes close to the surface of
the skin, and the cold cloths can help cool the blood.
the individual to bathe or sponge off with cool water.
the person can swallow safely, offer fluids such as water or
fruit and vegetable juices, but avoid alcohol and caffeine.
Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program(LIHEAP)
within the Administration for Children and Families in the
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services helps eligible
households pay for home cooling and heating costs. People
interested in applying for assistance should contact their
local or state LIHEAP agency.
a car is a symbol of independence and competence and is
closely tied to an individual’s identity. It also
represents freedom and control and allows older adults
to gain easy access to social connections, health care,
shopping, activities and even employment. At some point,
however, it is predictable that driving skills will
deteriorate and individuals will lose the ability to
safely operate a vehicle. Even though age alone does not
determine when a person needs to stop driving, the
decision must be balanced with personal and public
safety. Driving beyond one’s ability brings an increased
safety risk or even life-threatening situations to all
members of society. Statistics show that older drivers
are more likely than others to receive traffic citations
for failing to yield, making improper left turns, and
running red lights or stop signs, which are all
indications of a decrease in driving skills.
Understandably, dealing with impaired older drivers is a
road to driving cessation is anything but smooth. Each
year, hundreds of thousands of older drivers across the
country must face the end of their driving years and
become transportation dependent. Unfortunately, finding
other means of transportation has not noticeably
improved in recent years, leading to a reluctance among
older drivers to give up driving privileges and of
families to remove the car keys. The primary issue
facing older drivers is how to adapt to changes in
driving performance while maintaining necessary
mobility. Despite being a complicated issue, this
process can be more successful when there is a
partnership between the physician, older driver, family
headlines like these have ignited national media debates
and triggered the pressing need for more testing and
evaluation of elderly drivers, especially with the swell
of the Baby Boomer generation: “Family of four killed by
an 80-year-old man driving the wrong way on Highway 169.
86-year-old driver killed 10 people when his
vehicle plowed through a farmers’ market in southern
California. 93-year-old man crashed his car into a
Wal-Mart store, sending six people to the hospital and
injuring a 1-year-old child.”
to the Hartford Insurance Corporation, statistics of
older drivers show that after age 75, there is a higher
risk of being involved in a collision for every mile
driven. The rate of risk is nearly equal to the risk of
younger drivers ages 16 to 24. The rate of fatalities
increases slightly after age 65 and significantly after
age 75. Although older persons with health issues can be
satisfactory drivers, they have a higher likelihood of
injury or death in an accident.
an older adult’s sense of independence vs. driving risk
equals a very sensitive and emotionally charged topic.
Older adults may agree with the decline of their driving
ability, yet feel a sense of loss, blame others, attempt
to minimize and justify, and ultimately may feel
depressed at the thought of giving up driving
privileges. Driving is an earned privilege and in order
to continue to drive safely, guidelines and regulations
must be in place to evaluate and support older
and Driving Cessation
disease and driving safety is of particular concern to
society. Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common
cause of dementia in later life and is a progressive and
degenerative brain disease. In the process of driving,
different regions of the brain cooperate to receive
sensory information through vision and hearing, and a
series of decisions are made instantly to successfully
navigate. The progression of AD can be unpredictable and
affect judgment, reasoning, reaction time and
problem-solving. For those diagnosed with Alzheimer's
disease, it is not a matter of if retirement from
driving will be necessary, but when. Is it any wonder
that driving safety is compromised when changes are
occurring in the brain? Where dementia is concerned,
driving retirement is an inevitable endpoint for which
active communication and planning among drivers, family,
and health professionals are essential.
statistics from the Alzheimer’s Association indicate
that 5.3 million Americans have Alzheimer’s disease (AD)
and this number is expected to rise to 11-16 million by
the year 2050. Many people in the very early stages of
Alzheimer’s can continue to drive; however, they are at
an increased risk and driving skills will predictably
worsen over time. The Alzheimer’s Association’s position
on driving and dementia supports a state licensing
procedure that allows for added reporting by key
individuals coupled with a fair, knowledgeable, medical
the assessment of driving fitness in aging individuals,
and especially those with dementia, is not clear cut and
remains an emerging and evolving field today.
Role in Driving Cessation
most older drivers are safe, this population is more
prone to vehicle accidents due to decreased senses,
chronic illness and medication-related issues. The three
primary functions that are necessary for driving and
need to be evaluated are: vision, perception, and motor
function. As the number of older drivers rises, patients
and their families will increasingly turn to the
physicians for guidance on safe driving. This
partnership seems to be a key to more effective
decision-making and the opinions of doctors vs. family
are often valued by older drivers. Physicians are in a
forefront position to address physical, sensory and
cognitive changes in their aging patients. They can also
help patients maintain mobility through proper
counseling and referrals to driver evaluation programs.
This referral may avoid unnecessary conflict when the
doctor, family members or caregivers, and older drivers
have differing opinions. (It should be noted that driver
evaluation programs are usually not covered by insurance
and may require an out-of-pocket cost.)
all doctors agree that they are the best source for
making final decisions about driving. Physicians may not
be able to detect driving problems based on office
visits and physical examinations alone. Family members
should work with doctors and share observations about
driving behavior and health issues to help older adults
limit their driving or stop driving altogether.
Ultimately, counseling for driving retirement and
identifying alternative methods of transportation should
be discussed early on in the care process, prior to a
crisis. Each state has an Area Agency on Aging program
that can be contacted for information, and referrals can
be made to a social worker or community agency that
provides transportation services.
do exist to help physicians assess older adults with
memory impairments, weigh the legal and ethical
responsibilities, broach the topic of driving retirement
and move toward workable plans. The Hartford Insurance
Corporation, for example, offers two free publications
that make excellent patient handouts:At
the Crossroads: A Guide to Alzheimer's Disease,
and We Need to Talk: Family Conversations with Older
resources reveal warning signs and offer practical tips,
sound advice, communication starters, and planning
forms. Other resources can be found through the
Alzheimer's Association. Physicians can also refer to
the laws and reporting requirements for unsafe drivers
in their state and work proactively with patients and
their families or caregivers to achieve driving
retirement before serious problems occur. Ultimately,
assessing and counseling patients about their fitness to
drive should be part of the medical practice for all
patients as they age and face health changes.
Role in Driving Cessation
will you know when it is time to stop driving?” was a
question posed to older adults in a research study.
Responses included “When the stress level from my
driving gets high enough, I’ll probably throw my keys
away” and “When you scare the living daylights out of
yourself, that’s when it’s time to stop.” These
responses are clues to a lack of insight and regard for
the social responsibility of holding a driver’s license
and the critical need for education, evaluation and
one can no longer drive can lead to social isolation and
a loss of personal or spousal independence,
self-sufficiency, and even employment. In general, older
drivers want to decide for themselves when to quit, a
decision that often stems from the progression of
medical conditions that affect vision, physical
abilities, perceptions and, consequently, driving
skills. There are many things that an older adult can do
to be a safe driver and to participate in his or her own
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest
that older adults:
regularly to increase strength and flexibility.
driving only to daytime, low traffic, short radius,
the safest route before driving and find well-lit
streets, intersections with left turn arrows, and easy
the doctor or pharmacist to review medicines—both
prescription and over-the counter—to reduce side
effects and interactions.
eyes checked by an eye doctor at least once a year.
Wear glasses and corrective lenses as required.
and consider alternative sources and costs for
transportation and volunteer to be a passenger