for Asset Allocation- Increase Returns, Reduce Risk
SEQUENCE OF RETURNS PLANNING
you sold your Equities yet???
WHAT????? Trump is exploring leaving NATO. One of the most
boneheaded comments one can imagine. (Though wait a few
GMO has released to the public its 7‐Year
Asset Class Real Return Forecasts. As of December 31, 2018
-2.5% U.S. Large
1.3% U.S. Small
2.0% Intl Large
2.8% Intl Small
8.2% Emerging Value
-0.7% U.S. Bonds
-2.6% Intl Hedged
2.7% Emerging debt
-0.1% U.S. Inflation Linked
0.6% U.S. Cash
do see bond returns around that low after inflation
(that is what the real return means). I think U.S.
equities should be better and emerging not so much.
Social Information, and Sorting
dishonesty literature investigates how people behave
when they are provided certain types of information.
However, this approach predominantly ignores the
fact that people -to some extent- can choose which
information they want to be exposed to. By
conducting a laboratory experiment, we study
individuals’ decisions to choose which social
information they would like to observe and the
effect of this sorting on their engagement in
unethical conduct. We find evidence that sorting
exacerbates the prevalence of dishonesty, which is
mainly driven by the ones who chose maximum
information. Our results demonstrate that sorting is
an important factor determining dishonest behavior
and that previously observed levels of prevalence of
dishonesty in the literature can be an underestimate
of actual level of dishonest behavior in real-world
social norms; selection; laboratory experiments
Economists: Odds of US
recession highest in 6 years
partial shutdown of the US government and trade tensions
with China have brought the risk of a US recession to the
highest level in more than six years, analysts and
economists surveyed by Bloomberg say. The median chance of a
recession in the next 12 months is 25%, up from 20% in
December, the survey finds.
think the risk is much higher
Housing and the shutdown
housing industry was already facing market
challenges before any government closure,”
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist with the
National Association of Realtors said in a
press release sent with the 2019
Government Shutdown Report. “The shutdown
is causing tangible harm to potential
buyers, the real estate market and
A survey of more than 2,200 Realtors found
that 11 percent have current clients who
are impacted by the shutdown, and 11
percent have potential clients who have
been impacted by the shutdown. The most
common impact reported is simply putting
off the decision to buy a home, the report
• This paper investigates the strategy of rebalancing the
retirement portfolio during the withdrawal phase.The goal is
to provide the largest number of equal (real) withdrawals from
a given retirement portfolio.
• The study investigates six different allocations of stock
and five different harvesting rules, only one of which
rebalances the portfolio annually.The methods are tested using
five different withdrawals rates (3–7 percent).The results
look at shortfalls over 30 years, as well as shorter periods.
• The study uses two analysis methods: bootstrap and
historical inflation adjusted rates of return in their true
temporal order. Both methods find that rebalancing provides
no significant protection on portfolio longevity, and this
holds for all withdrawal periods. In fact, in some cases,
rebalancing increases the number of shortfalls.
Withdrawing bonds first, over stocks, performs the best of all
the methods, though the resulting stock-heavy portfolio may
make some investors uneasy. This method also is most apt to
leave a larger remaining balance at the end of 30 years, while
rebalancing leaves the smallest amount.
Withdrawing stocks first leaves more shortfalls than
withdrawing low first or high first.
Confirming previous research, the larger the proportion of
stocks to bonds, the longer the portfolio lasts; the higher
the withdrawal rate, the more shortfalls.
The results suggest that the use of lifecycle funds or a
life-cycle strategy that decreases stock proportions as one
grows older needs empirical justification.
EFM- So is
this 'true'? No. Rebalancing with stocks over 30 years must
include 4 or so recessions where the stocks fall 50%. But
then think about a stock portfolio with losses not greater
than about 12% to 15%. Sound better?
term care goes high tech
the U.S., where health-care spending equals 17.2% of GDP,
people over 65 will outnumber those under 18 by 2035,
the Sawayaka-en nursing home outside Tokyo, whose residents
average 86 years old, 48 rooms have been equipped with four
devices that monitor the occupants and stream data to the
nurses’ station using software designed by Z-Works. Under
the bed, a palm-sized Doppler radar sensor, developed with
Sharp, monitors heartbeat and breathing. Other devices track
whether people are at risk of falling out of bed or are
taking too long to get back from the toilet
patients wearing virtual-reality goggles catch balls or
move objects that appear to pop up in front of them.
Shake your head to see the animal. Really!
Can you make sense of this????
is confusion over President Trump’s plans to wind
down U.S. involvement in the conflict: Last
month, officials said the president intended to
pull out American troops within 30 days, but
more recently, the national security adviser, John
R. Bolton, said the pullout was conditional
and American forces could remain in Syria for
months or even years.
despite those plans, Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo said in a speech in Cairo on Thursday that
the U.S. would pursue a more
activist policy in the
is nil continuity coming from the administration. Think the
world's countries are confused?? Sure are and it makes for
anxiety and strive. This makes us look weak and that we
cannot be trusted.
are killing the oceans
experts to warn a toxic combination of warming oceans,
overfishing and pollution is causing jellyfish populations
to surge with damaging ecological and commercial
consequences. “Every industry that has got people,
aquaculture or equipment like power plants or ships where
jellyfish are in the water are suffering financial damage,”
linked to jellyfish were likely to run to billions of dollars
and warned the increasing prevalence of blooms was an
indicator that the global ecosystem was out of balance.
Warming waters and overfishing were a “dream come true” for
jellyfish and bad news for their predators, as they were able
to adapt better to changes and outbreed competitors,
Predictions of a coming “jellyfish apocalypse” date back more
than a decade and have been amplified by high profile events,
such as when the USS Ronald Reagan was evacuated in 2006 in
Brisbane when jellyfish got sucked into condensers used to
cool its engines. China is now testing jellyfish
shredders — nets with clusters of steel blades that chop up
the creatures — to protect its aircraft carriers. Global
fisheries are at risk. Last year, large stocks of salmon at
fish farms off Ireland’s west coast
were destroyed by stinging jellyfish while
scientists blame an invasive species of cone jellyfish for the
collapse of the Black Sea fishery in the early 2000s. The
creatures likely arrived in the ballast water of a ship.
Power stations, which suck in seawater to cool reactors, are
also being affected by the gelatinous creatures with nuclear
and coal generators in the US, Sweden, Japan, Israel and
Scotland forced to suspend operations over the past
decade after swarms of jellyfish clogged equipment. “In
Japan earthquakes are the number one threat to the electricity
grid but jellyfish are the second,
approximately 50% of all first marriages end in divorce.
The odds of second marriages succeeding are lower, and the
odds of third marriages making it are lower still. In
other words, there is an inverse relationship between the
number of marriages a person has and their odds of
up the ocean
are heating up 40 percent faster on average than a United
Nations panel estimated five years ago. The researchers also
concluded that ocean temperatures have broken records for
several straight years.
is going to be the warmest year on record for the Earth’s
the planet has warmed, the oceans have provided a critical
buffer. They have slowed the effects of climate change by absorbing
93 percent of the heat trapped
by the greenhouse gases humans pump into the atmosphere
the ocean wasn’t absorbing as much heat, the surface of the
land would heat up much faster than it is right now,”
“In fact, the ocean is saving us from massive warming right
water temperatures are already killing off marine
ecosystems, raising sea
levels and making hurricanes more destructive.
actual ability of the warm oceans to produce food is much
lower, so that means they’re going to be more quickly
approaching food insecurity,”
effects of the warming on marine life could also have broad
repercussions, Dr. Pinsky said. “As
the ocean heats up, it’s driving fish into new places, and
we’re already seeing that that’s driving conflict between
countries,” he said. “It’s spilling over far beyond just
fish, it’s turned into trade wars. It’s turned into
diplomatic disputes. It’s led to a breakdown in
international relations in some cases.”
are warming the planet but the ocean is not warming evenly,
so different places warm more than others,” Dr. Zanna said.
“And so the first consequence will be that sea level will be
different in different places depending on the warming.”
demanded billions of dollars in Congressional funding for a
wall, which would be "indirectly paid for" via a trade deal
with Mexico. An extended shutdown can affect the economy
in a number of ways - from delaying business permits and
visas to reducing service hours at innumerable agencies.
Withheld or forgone pay from millions of federal employees
can also hit consumer spending, which makes up about 70%
of U.S. economic activity.
This will reduce GDP. Maybe not too much right now but in
another week it will get serious.
reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage and
Popcorn for cattle:
herding some cattle into a corral. You usually throw some
hay in front of them to entice them into the enclosure. But
one wouldn't budge. I had some popped popcorn in my car and
decided to try that. I have rarely seen any animal
instantly gorge themselves on something like that (except
me). The other cows were the same. So if you need an extra
incentive to move thousands of pounds of animals with an IQ
of rope, try it.
were extended for an unscheduled third day, fueling optimism
that the world's largest economies can avoid an all-out
confrontation. Progress was seen on issues including
purchases of U.S. farm and energy commodities, as well as
increased access to China's markets, but the two sides
are still ways apart on Chinese structural reforms that
would stop alleged theft and forced U.S. technology
theft has got to stop. If the U.S> does not get
guarantees, the trade talks will end without a proper
Identity theft is a
disturbing crime regardless of your age. The idea that your
personal information is now in the hands of people with bad
intentions can leave you feeling quite vulnerable. Now
imagine the panic of discovering that your minor child’s
personal information has been stolen and is being used
fraudulently. Children’s identities are attractive for
identity thieves for many reasons including that their
credit reports are blank slates and that the theft may not
be detected for some time.For warning signs of child
identity theft and steps to undo the damage, check out: Six Warning Signs That Your
Child’s Identity Has Been Stolen.
really pisses me off. Puerto Rico is far from perfect with
its ineptness, but the people still need a lot of
Trump’s plans to take money from
Puerto Rico to build the wall
Health Care Tonysteuer.com
In 2000 the United
States spent considerably more on health care than any other
country, whether measured per capita or as a percentage of
GDP. At the same time, most measures of aggregate
utilization such as physician visits per capita and hospital
days per capita were below the OECD median. Since spending
is a product of both the goods and services used and their
prices, this implies that much higher prices are paid in the
United States than in other countries. But U.S. policymakers
need to reflect on what Americans are getting for their
greater health spending. They could conclude: It’s the
prices, stupid. Read the full research paper: It’s The Prices, Stupid: Why The
United States Is So Different From Other Countries.
Health Insurance Roadmap Solution and Clarification:
As covered in the
last edition of the GET READY! Newsletter, There is more
that Americans agree on with Health Insurance, then they
disagree on.Americans want access to Affordable Health
Insurance, choice in their Health Insurance & Health
Care and no penalty for pre-existing conditions.
My suggestion, based
upon last year’s A Health Insurance Roadmap,
is going with the simplest solution, which is a Medicare for
All based plan. The issue with this statement is
that Medicare for All has many different meanings. My
solution does not involve single payer or complete universal
health insurance as those are fiscally sustainable. It does
include doing away with all group health insurance plans,
period. Everyone, between the ages of 18 and 65 goes into
the same health insurance pool. This accomplishes the goal
of spreading the risk between healthy and unhealthy people
and allows people to have portability of their health
insurance and not have to switch medical providers and
medications, if they leave an employer.
Medicare Part A is
extended to cover all U.S. Citizens.To some degree, this
already is in place as the Emergency Medical Treatment &
Labor Act (EMTALA) ensures public access to emergency
services regardless of ability to pay. Section 1867 of the
Social Security Act imposes specific obligations on
Medicare-participating hospitals that offer emergency
services to provide a medical screening examination (MSE)
when a request is made for examination or treatment for an
emergency medical condition (EMC), including active labor,
regardless of an individual's ability to pay. Hospitals are
then required to provide stabilizing treatment for patients
Medicare Parts B & D (plus MediGap Supplements) are
mostly only available through insurance companies under
Medicare Advantage Plans. Medicare Parts B & D are only
offered by the Federal Government in parts of the U.S. where
is there are no participating insurance company (or only one
company, so consumers have a choice). Medicare Advantage is
growing quickly and now accounts for one third of all new
Medicare enrollees. Except for emergency room visits, health
insurance basically still works the same. All new enrollees,
including those turning 65 would only go into Medicare
Advantage programs. Medicare Advantage programs do have
issues that would need to be addressed.
question is funding and employer premiums. Medicare Taxes
continue and the income cap is removed, that helps stabilize
Medicare (this is only a start). Employers would then be
able to fund Health Care Spending Accounts that employees
use to pay health insurance premiums (HSA’s allow employees
to use pre-tax dollars to pay health care costs). Yes, this
is a simplistic, incomplete solution, however, it is a solid
start that maintains the private health insurance
marketplace while not greatly increasing the burden on the
States and cities
are moving ahead with their own plans as at least 10 states
are exploring whether to allow residents to pay premiums to
“buy in” to Medicaid, the federal health care program for
the poor. See: Medicaid ‘Buy-In’ Could Be a New
Health Care Option for the Uninsured. Single
payer is on the table as new Governor Gavin Newsom is already
moving California toward single-payer. And New York City Mayor De Blasio
Unveils Health Care Plan for Undocumented and Low-Income
The reality is that
single payer health insurance is not sustainable in the U.S.
economy. It’s time for a bipartisan plan that allows
everyone to purchase coverage while being fiscally
sustainable. And as mentioned in the first item in this
newsletter, it’s all about managing expenses and it’s nice
to see that Senator Alexander recognizes this as the
elephant in the room.
Lastly, the health
insurance sector remain stable heading into 2019, according
to new analysis by S&P Global Ratings."A combination of
still-favorable business conditions, financial factors, and
diminished near-term legislative uncertainty balances our
concerns relating to merger and acquisition activity,
elevated policy risk, and re-emergent legal overhang," said
S&P analyst Joseph Marinucci. Here’s how: A robust job market bolstering
employer-sponsored plans, Baby Boomers transitioning to
Medicare Advantage, and ACA exchanges attracting new
payers are good signs for health plans in the coming
is officially back in a bull market as confidence grows over
both the strength of the global economy and the willingness
of OPEC+ to adhere to its production cut agreement.
to Intelligent Fiduciary
Errold F Moody Jr
I note in your Intelligent Fiduciary the
issue of fees and TDFs. I will exclude the issue of fees since
lawsuits, commentary et al have covered most of the concerns-
yet leave the major problem to 401k participants are a couple
of areas I will lightly address.
One main one which I have covered
previously in my own articles are the Target Date Funds for
retirees. You probably agree with this that the mere
statement- used by a lot of journalists- is that TDFs are the
greatest thing since sliced bread and you can use them for the
rest of your life. Your comment, “Do we know our funds’ glide
path? This is the way the asset allocation changes as
participants age, and it can differ from fund to fund, making
some more conservative and some riskier than others,”
addresses a fact but not the solution. That said, I don’t
think there is a solution. There are so many glide paths that
one might need several TDFs for 401k selections because the
inherent risks are rarely covered properly. In particular,
participants would need to be aware of the implications to
their unique retirement requirements. Point being
that right now larger equity positions may very well
get hammered with a economy that can really go south. Many
‘experts’ (using the term loosely) suggest a recession in the
near term. (As of 1/11, Trump’s antics will destabilize the
international arena, the closing of government will drop our
GDP, the trade war with China is not going to be resolved
amicably no matter the press, Trump is marrying Kim Jong Il
(Isn’t love wonderful?), the wall will be paper mache…..). So
should the TDF stay with equities? Or should they revert to
bonds? Problem is that standard bond funds will get hammered
doing so. Vanguard’s bond fund has done .28% for one year-
which means a loss with inflation. Equities (S&P 500) are
down about 12% from highs a few months ago but recently it was
about 16.67%. What does that mean for the 401k participants
who need higher returns to fund their retirement- that means
total yield that exceeds a standard bond fund (maybe below 0-
almost certainly when inflation is factored in). So how much
will they need? It will vary all over the place depending on
an individual’s budget and then a Present Value for needs.
Each employee will differ so the basic education will need to
cover that? Seems doubtful. And the idea that anyone says that
any set investment allocation (mostly referencing TDFS) will
work for 30/35 years is a moron. I figure I might be OK with
what I do for 5 years, an 80% to 90% correct interpretation to
stock/bonds for 10 years and that is about it. Our world is in
such a state of flux that the economic arena after 10 years
maybe something no one has ever seen. It IS necessary to
provide some criteria to consumers for retirement, but it must
be a range of numbers.
But the current 5 or 10 years by the
industry defies credulity. What’s the problem there? If an
advisor accepts the fiduciary status, can they use a
7 reps are not taught how to use a financial calculator. And
RIAs do not have to have that capability. So the ability- more
so the recognition- of the inputs used in the software
programs used to determine risk and allocations merely becomes
an exercise of rote acceptance of the computations and a
simple printout of what to do. Was correlation addressed? Was
Monte Carlo used? What inflation? What rate of return? What
Probably necessary to see if the basics
were covered but here is a main issue. What was the consumer’s
risk and how was it derived. The main criteria for investing
and planning software is incapable of computing an acceptable allocation selection.
The software may show a graph pointing to
conservative. So I ask you as a reader- ‘what does
conservative mean.’ You probably would say that it cannot lose
How about Moderate risk? Well, the
simplistic comment is that it can lose more than conservative
ETF., etc., for High risk and Speculative
All software does a runaround regarding risk
no grasp of the Risk of Loss. If that is not the main focus
for investing- and it is not- then the consumer questions and
the subsequent (useless) consumer risk profile and the
allocations therefore are suspect at best and wrong at the
I have identified these areas that the DOL
and ERISA rules don’t even remotely cover- mainly because the
internal attorneys and outside counsel are clueless to risk.
Why? Well, there is no education to Risk
of Loss to attorneys. BUT THERE IS NO EDUCATION TO THE
PLANNING/INVESTMENT/RETIREMENT PLANNING/LICENSING entities or
to STATE OR GOVERNMENTAL REGULATORY overseers either. If one
cannot define how much each category of consumer risk is apt
to lose in a major economic upheaval, the foundation to
allocations is wrong. I will end with this:
NEW Consumer Risk Profile:
Not an investor: No loss ever-certainly for a
10% loss basic correction ever
Conservative: Willing to assume losses up to
20%- 25% (10% to 15% is a correction- up from 10% in
Moderate: Accepts losses to 45%
Aggressive: Accepts losses to 65%
Speculative: Accepts losses to 100%+ (leverage)
If advisors for 401ks or involving ERISA rules
cannot address the software inconsistencies (they are all
different) then I do not know how a firm/advisor can be a
fiduciary. They have to know risk of loss.
Garbage In; Garbage Out
PS (Arbitrators are not taught about risk
either. Many arbitrations therefore are a farce.)
Estate Funds dropped 6.16% in 2018
mutual funds and exchange-traded funds fell 6.16% on average
for the year, due to a decline during the December market
tumult, according to Lipper data. The S&P 500 index fell
were 48 U.S. real-estate ETFs, with total assets of $66
billion, from 23 providers on three exchanges at the end of
to ETFGI data, the top five real-estated-focused ETFs are Vanguard
Real Estate ETF (VNQ), followed by Vanguard
Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF (VNQI), Schwab
U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH), iShares
Real Estate (IYR) and Real
Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE).
are using real estate in the form of ETFs to build out their
portfolios, and further diversify without having to deal with
of property management or upfront costs that other avenues
of real-estate investing require,”
Bank cuts forecast for world economic growth in 2019
anti-poverty agency said Tuesday that it expects the world
economy to grow 2.9 percent in 2019, down from the 3 percent
it forecast back in June. It would be the second straight year
of slowing growth: The global economy expanded 3 percent last
year and 3.1 percent in 2017.
growth is slowing, and the risks are rising," . "In 2017, the
global economy was pretty much firing on all cylinders. In
2018, the engines started sputtering."
bank left its forecast for the U.S. economy unchanged at
2.5 percent this year, down from 2.9 percent in 2018. It
predicts 1.6 percent growth for the
countries that use the euro currency, down from 1.9 percent
last year; and 6.2 percent growth for China, the world's
second-biggest economy, versus 6.5 percent in 2018.
bank upgraded expectations for the Japanese economy, lifting
its growth forecast to 0.9 percent, up from 0.8 percent in
2018. (EFM- still a pittance)
28 incredible 'Made in China' innovations that are changing
are absolutely incredible and you must see each one. A 3D
printable car. Drone 'helicopter'. First installed rail gun.
Huge floating solar 'farm'. Some just blow you
are overconfident about retirement
four percent of workers surveyed said they’re very or
somewhat confident about their financial prospects in
retirement, up from 60% in 2016. Confidence was even higher
among those closest to quitting time: 71% of workers aged 55
and older professed confidence they’ll have enough money to
live comfortably in retirement.
that's ludicrous. The optimism is not going to be justified
an incredible amount of overconfidence out there, based on
erroneous assumptions about what life will be like after
retirement,” says Jack VanDerhei, EBRI’s research director.
“Many people may be in for an unexpectedly rough ride when
the reality of retirement sets in.”
workers are more likely to have done some retirement prep
than younger colleagues, as you’d expect, but not nearly
enough, the survey showed. Only about half of the workers 55
and up had roughed out how much they’ll need to have saved,
what their costs will likely be or how much monthly income
they’ll need to cover those bills. Worse, just 37% had
thought about how much to tap savings for living costs in
retirement and a mere 28% had forecast their estimated
health care expenses.
found that 43% of workers 55 and older have less than $100,000
in savings and investments, and just 38% have $250,000 or
low level of savings helps explain why the percentage of
workers who are very confident about their
retirement prospects (as opposed to the combined numbers for
“very” and “somewhat” confident) are actually quite low. Only
17% said they were “very confident,” down from 18% a year ago.
Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS) gauges the
views and attitudes of working-age and retired
Americans regarding retirement, their
preparations for retirement, their confidence
with regard to various aspects of retirement,
and related issues. The RCS is the
longest-running survey of its kind and is
conducted annually by the Employee Benefit
Research Institute (EBRI) and the independent
research firm Greenwald & Associates.
2018 survey of 2,042 Americans ages 25 or
older was conducted online January 3 through
January 16, 2018. The survey includes 1,002
workers and 1,040 retirees. Data were weighted
by age, sex, and education. The margin of
error is ± 3.16 percentage points for all
workers and ± 3.10 percentage points for all
Gary Shilling Sees 66% Chance of
Recession in 2019
recommends "defensive" stock sectors, long-term Treasuries
and a "heavy cash position."
one had used my Process, you would already been in cash. But
you would have lost 12% from the top of the S&P several
months ago. We'll see how this all plays out
the Kiplinger article to understand my comment
.....'his life was changed, and his future set, when he was
inspired by playing a stock simulation game in high school'.
The stock market game is a sham. It is a 'game' oriented
toward trading as much as possible with the intent of beating
another team for bragging rights. In terms of financial
literacy of the industry- there has never been a requirement
to learn how to use a financial calculator.
Further yet, very few brokers, RIAs, are ever taught
diversification by the numbers. Say what? How many stocks do
you have to have in a portfolio in order to insulate it from
unsystematic risk? More colloquially, how many stocks do you
need to be properly diversified? It has a range from 50 to 350
(depends on the underlying risk). Does anyone think that risk
(or any others for that matter) are fully explained to
do not dismiss learning about bank accounts, credit ratings
etc- the very basics of every day life. Absolutely mandatory.
But the basic knowledge to recognize the risks of loss has
rarely been addressed even to those that 'profess their
knowledge of personal finances'.
for clarity, I have taught most all securities licenses,
insurance retirement et al as well as CFP courses, etc. Risk
should be the criteria necessary to invest. Ain't happening.
Errold Moody PhD MSFP MBA LLB BSCE
Podcast on Pain Management: A
Crisis With No End in Sight
Perspectives from the Social
Sciences: Critically Engage Public Health
Pain Management and Public
Health -- Introduction to the Special Section
Pain Management and Opioid
Regulation: Continuing Public Health Challenges
Where is the Opioid Use Epidemic
in Mexico? A Cautionary Tale for Policymakers South of
the U.S.-Mexico Border
Effect of Remediating Blighted
Vacant Land on Shootings: A Citywide Cluster Randomized
sentiment has returned to oil markets in 2019, with Saudi
Arabia cutting production while China and the U.S. look to
end the trade war.
1/6: An omen???
had an even worse December than expected, darkening the mood
for global equities. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI
fell to 49.7 from 50.2 in November, dropping below the
critical 50 level that separates growth from contraction.
Later in the week, a market rebound took hold after China's
commerce ministry announced that vice ministerial-level
trade talks with the U.S. would be held on Jan. 7-8.
more a CORE investment????
more bad news for Apple,
which cut its quarterly revenue forecast for the first time
since 2007. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) has taken steps to enforce a court order banning the sale
of some iPhone models in Germany, a move that will likely
see the models pulled from local store shelves. Apple shares
have fallen by 39.1% since
Oct. 3 and the tech giant now registers in fourth place in
the market cap standings, behind Microsoft
father told his 3 sons when he sent them to the university,
“I feel it’s my duty to provide you with the best possible
education, and you do not owe me anything for that.
I want you to appreciate it. As a token, please each
put $1,000 into my coffin when I die.”
so it happened. His sons became a doctor, a lawyer and
a financial planner, each very successful financially.
father’s time had come and they saw their father in the
coffin, they remembered his wish.
it was the doctor who put ten $100 bills onto the chest of
came the financial planner, who also put $1,000 there.
it was the heartbroken lawyer’s turn. He dipped into
his pocket, took out his checkbook,
a check for $3,000, put it into his father’s coffin, and
took the $2,000 cash.-
later went on to become a member of Congress...
on Dealing with a Spouse with Cancer
my husband David did not die from his cancer, his diagnosis
did introduce the stark reality of what could happen.
Statistically speaking, my 55-year-old husband had a 50-50
chance of dying from his Stage IV oral cancer. That sobering
statistic put everyday annoyances in perspective. In light of
that, things that might previously have ignited an argument
between us became inconsequential in comparison.
relationships should come first
most of my marriage, I failed miserably at this. I immersed
myself in mothering babies and toddlers and, as the parents of
eight children, we were often struggling financially. I was so
busy juggling bills and babies, I had no time to work on my
marriage. The turning point in our relationship came after a
long day of chemotherapy and radiation, when my husband
collapsed in a chair in our living room, completely and
utterly exhausted. I knelt down in front of him, removed his
socks and shoes, and began rubbing his feet. When I looked up,
there were tears in his eyes. In 27 years of marriage, I had
never touched his feet. For the first time in a long time,
maybe ever, I was putting my husband first. From that point
on, I made a concentrated effort to consider David’s needs
before my own. Doing so prompted him to reciprocate. In the
ensuing years, we enjoyed an extraordinary relationship—a true
partnership in every sense of the word.
is key to a good relationship
eight of the 11 days he was in the hospital after surgical
removal of the tumor on the back of his tongue, my husband was
unable to speak because of a tracheotomy. He struggled to
communicate by writing with a shaky hand on a dry erase board.
Ironically, alone with my husband in that hospital room, away
from the cacophony of a house full of children, and despite
being robbed of his speaking ability, David and I learned what
it was to effectively communicate. In order to understand his
had to pay attention to David’s body language, becoming
sensitive to the unspoken meaning behind his hand gestures,
leg movement, or his facial expressions. With the removal of
his tracheotomy tube, my husband’s voice was gravely and
sometimes difficult to understand. His old voice never
returned, and neither did our dysfunctional communication
skills. We abandoned our old patterns of blaming and
misunderstanding. I can remember only two instances in the
ensuing five years that we even exchanged strong words, and
then we immediately apologized. Surely with counseling and
dedicated hard work, we could have changed destructive
patterns in our marriage long before; but without the impetus
of cancer, I’m not sure we would have. Which brings us to the
can come from something inherently bad
hate cancer. Cancer took my mother in 2010 and my
eight-year-old grandson in 2013. But the fact remains that it
was the shared experience of my husband’s illness that my
marriage relationship was revitalized. Many times after his
cancer my husband would look over at me, reach for my hand and
say, “If it was cancer that made our marriage what it is
today, then I am glad for the cancer.” I will always be
grateful for the “bonus years” I shared with David those five
and a half years after his treatment.
can change in an instant
who has received a cancer diagnosis holds an indelible memory
of the moment the words “You have cancer” were uttered. Their
life changed in that instant. My spouse’s diagnosis made me
realize just how much I loved him. Hearing those words, I made
an instantaneous decision to become the best caregiver
possible. As for my husband, post-cancer he cherished each and
every moment of life as the gift that it is. I will never
forget his response to my question the day before his 60th
birthday. “Does it bother you? This birthday ending in zero?”
His answer was “No. Think of the alternative.” David didn’t
live to see his 61st birthday. He died unexpectedly from heart
failure the day before, just a few months after he’d
celebrated his five-year cancer survival.
don’t mean to trivialize either cancer or the caregiving
experience. David’s treatment was grueling. He went through a
radical surgery, followed by a regimen of radiation,
chemotherapy, and a clinical trial drug. He seemed to age 10
years in 10 months. As his caregiver, I did things I never
imagined doing: cleaning open wounds, changing bloody
dressings, and feeding my husband through a tube in his
stomach. I drove David to appointments, sat with him every
Wednesday during his chemotherapy treatments, and watched my
sturdy, strong husband get thinner and weaker every day. But
what transpired in our marriage relationship during those
months still amazes me. David died knowing he was truly loved,
and I was left with the memory of what it was to share a true
partnership with a spouse.
change and the Caravan
the next 20 years, 4,000,000 migrants will go to the U.S.
video from the Financial Times
flashes as US yield curve gets flatter
Treasury yield curve has flattened further, and traders view
that as an indicator that the US economy is close to
recession. The spread between three-month and 10-year
yields narrowed to 18.6 basis points early Wednesday,
the tightest compression since the financial crisis.
This is where all the bugs come
from that infect computers and phones.
I believe I have a bunch of new
ones for the New Year.
February 2012, when the price declines associated with the
last financial crisis ended, prices for existing homes in
the United States have been rising steadily and enormously.
According to the S&P/CoreLogic/Case-Shiller
National Home Price Index (which I
helped to create) as of September, the prices were 53
percent higher than they were at the bottom of the market
means, on average, a house that sold for, say, $200,000 in
2012 would bring over $300,000 in September.
after factoring in Consumer Price Index inflation, real
existing home prices were up almost 40 percent during that
period. That is a substantial increase in less than seven
No. 1 boom occurred from February 1997 to October 2006,
when real prices of existing United States homes rose 74
from 1942 to 1947, had more benign consequences. Over this
five-year interval, real prices of existing homes rose 60
the conventional basis is now that home prices are going
up 5 percent a year, then sellers, who would otherwise
have no idea what to ask for their houses, will just put a
price based on this convention. And likewise buyers will
not feel they are paying too much if they accept the
convention. In the United States, we may believe that the
process is all part of the “American dream.”
because the S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index,
the companies with the largest market cap exert the
greatest influence on the index’s value. Currently, the 10
largest companies in the S&P 500 are responsible for
more than 20% of the index’s movement. Looking at the
three largest, Apple (AAPL)
is responsible for 3.9%, Microsoft (MSFT)
is responsible for 3.3% and Amazon (AMZN)
is responsible for 2.9%.
four in 10 Americans are obese -- that’s a whopping
93.3 million adults -- which increases their risk
of heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, certain cancers
and early mortality, and cost the country $147 billion in
medical costs in 2008, according
to the CDC.
Nearly 80% of American adults are also not getting enough
aerobic and muscle-strengthening activity, which is linked
to about $117 billion in annual health care costs and 10%
of premature mortality,
diet “is the only diet that has been proven in
trials to promote weight loss and reduce the risk of
heart attack, stroke and other cardiovascular
diseases.” This meal plan includes using olive
oil rich in healthy omega-3 fatty acids as your main
cooking oil, and loading your plate with fruits and
vegetables, whole grains and lean protein like fish
and chicken, with the occasional piece of red meat.
The American Heart Association recommends a similar
diet that emphasizes whole, unprocessed foods,
particularly fruits, veggies and whole grains, as well
as low-fat dairy products, nuts and legumes, and
non-tropical vegetable oils, while reducing salt,
sugar and trans fats.
aren’t evil -- but sugar might be. “The
concept of carbohydrates has really gotten such a bad
reputation, and we need to understand that there are
complex carbohydrates and ancient grains that can really
help us not only lose weight, but increase satiety so we
stay full longer and want to eat less. It actually
decreases the cholesterol and stabilizes the blood sugar,
and all of these things are a really important part of a
weight loss program,” said Dr. Suzanne Steinbaum, an
American Heart Association volunteer medical expert. These
“good” carbs include whole grains, vegetables, fruits and
beans; the refined carbs (including refined grains and
starches like white bread, white rice, pasta and mashed
potatoes) should be consumed in limited amounts. “They are
high in simple sugars, and that’s what adds weight,”
sugars in the form of sweeteners and syrups to flavor
processed foods sees the average adult eating 20 teaspoons
of hidden added sugar every day, or an extra 320 calories,
according to the USDA’s recent nationwide food consumption
survey. And then there’s sugar-sweetened beverages like
sodas, sports drinks, juices and flavored coffees and teas
stirred with empty calories. “The typical glass of orange
juice has three oranges in it; that’s the calories of
three oranges. But it’s easy to drink a glass of orange
juice and still eat a number of other things,” added Dr.
Aronne. “You’re better off just eating a single orange and
Or do what I did. Drop your calories and exercise more-
and even if you are old, include some type of weight
training. I have dropped about 25 pounds of fat and put on
25 pounds of muscle. Worth it? Muscles are your
shock absorbers for your body. They save your bones
a lot of pain by offsetting wear and tear on them.
for me, I still have another 20 pounds to go.
Outside an ice cream parlor. Priceless
Myths About Caregiving Costs
loved one will stay at home and not have caregiving
home help will be covered by insurance
quickly calculate how much help at home will cost.
cost of caregiving is only financial.
can’t afford a caregiver, so you're not going to get one.
won’t affect my finances. .
conversation about finances can wait until care is
for answers, just click link. Necessary if you are old,
plan on getting old or simply know somebody who is old
the World Needs to Rethink Retirement
populations and decreasing birthrates are spurring countries
across the globe to reassess how retirement works — and what
needs to change in order to extend the benefits available
today to future retirees.
the Aegon Center for Longevity and Retirement noted
future generations would be worse off than those now in
retirement, partly because people are living longer.
According to the United Nations, the number of those over 60
worldwide is expected to double by
2050 to 2.1 billion.
In the 1950s, that segment of the world’s population was
around 205 million.
on 9 countries- worth the look
It's always nice to have choices
Chinese are way ahead of us in using less cash.
payments in China is
quickly rendering cash obsolete, even as China’s central
bank cracks down on merchants who refuse to accept bank
notes and coins
Dementia Has Frozen $1.3 Trillion in
Japanese Assets: Dai-Ichi Life
want more older people in Japan to appoint financial
pile of captive capital held by sufferers of Alzheimer’s and
other forms of dementia in Japan swelled to 143 trillion yen
($1.3 trillion) in the year ending March 2018, according to
research by Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute Inc. That’s equivalent
to more than a quarter of the size of the overall economy.
READ THAT AGAIN
problem of idled assets could be an even bigger headache in
countries where people commit more of their savings to
stocks: Japanese typically place about 15% of their assets
in equities and investment trusts, according to Bank of
Japan data, less than a third of the corresponding figure
50% of securities and 40% of all financial assets in Japan are
expected to be held by those aged 70 and over in 2035,
according to Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. Nomura has also
placed 180 staff specializing in older clients across its
branches in Japan as it tries to offer seniors better service.
the past, the fundamental assumption of economics was that
human beings can take rational courses of action throughout
their lives,” said Keio University’s Komamura. “That
was the basis on which arguments were based, but we’re now
moving away from that.”
largely targeting the elderly, defrauded Japanese people out
of 20.2 billion yen in the first seven months of 2018,
according to National Policy Agency data. In more than half
those cases, the money was swindled simply by calling
people up and saying, “It’s me, I’m in trouble.” People
who transferred money to callers typically thought they
were talking to a close family member.
letting drivers know what an elderly person looks like
(pictures are worth a thousand words) and that if you hit one,
the cemetery is right there.
and keeping a job after 50- some real life info
and Urban Institute report finds that,
despite the federal Age
Discrimination in Employment Act, more than half of
workers over 50 are being pushed out of longtime stable jobs
even if they hadn’t planned
to retire—and the resultant financial damage could
haunt them for the rest of their lives.
fact, according to the report, 28 percent of longtime
employees have experienced at least one layoff
between turning 50 and retiring.
one in 10 of those workers ever manages to earn as much as
they did before employment setbacks began
percent of “stable, longtime employees” are caught up in at
least one damaging layoff between turning 50 and retirement.
Another 13 percent of workers in stable, long-held jobs when
they turn 50 “unexpectedly retire under conditions that
suggest they were forced out,” the report adds, complete
with a “substantial drop in earnings and income.”
15 percent of over-50 workers, the report says, who were in
stable jobs to begin with, end up quitting or leaving “after
reporting that their pay, hours, work locations or treatment
by supervisors have deteriorated.
could be as high as 22 million enduring layoff, forced
retirement or other involuntary job separation. “Of these,”
says the report, “only a little over 2 million have
recovered or will.”
enough Turkey will probably slaughter thousands of Kurds,
but that Assad not only stays in power but recoups a lot of
betrayed by the United States, its Kurdish allies in Syria
asked the Syrian government on Friday to protect them from
possible attack by Turkey.
request surprised some American officials and could help open
the way for the forces of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria,
backed by Russia and Iran, to start retaking the Kurdish-held
part of the country near Turkey’s border.
Jong Un issues warning to US on denuclearisation
Mr Kim’s comments come as nuclear talks with the US remain
stalled, with the two sides at odds over what should come
first: North Korea’s denuclearisation or the lifting of
international sanctions against the communist state.
Mr Kim on Tuesday called for more inter-Korean co-operation,
saying Pyongyang was ready to resume operations at a jointly
run industrial complex in the North’s border town of Kaesong
and to restart South Korean tourist trips to the North’s
scenic Mount Kumgang. But Seoul cannot push for these
projects unless international sanctions are lifted.
EFM- Perhaps Kim is taking a play from negotiating in that
Trump's international and national status is low (and
going lower) and Kim can up the ante for another
direct meeting with Trump where Trump will now
offer more concessions to get more 'good' press. Seoul
might push for lowering sanctions because of the 'opening'
with North Korea.
has only a "50-50" chance of happening if MPs vote against
Theresa May's deal, according to senior politician Liam
best way to guarantee Britain exits the European Union on
March 29, 2019 is for MPs to support the withdrawal
there are no guarantees the agreement will get the support
it needs. This is because, prior to Christmas, there were
reports more than 100 MPs opposed it. Leading
Conservatives even advocate a second referendum.
to Fox's "50-50" statement, the Liberal Democrat MP Layla
Moran said it is "actually 56-44" as public opinion has
changed since the referendum.
said the public wants to stop this "badly-led disaster."