reference to the limited fiduciary capabilities in the planning
industry (and more) and why they may/will remain as such given
sophomoric DOL rules and flaccid organizational enforcement.
Specific commentary to sexism and ethical and moral lapses
of society impacting women. Not the standard drivel
for investors and advisers. The economic changes from
the Great Recession caused major adjustments in investing.
One of the major issues is the flip flop
of the correlations in bond funds versus equities
coupled with a truly lower return and an increased overall
risk. It will take a lot more effort to provide adequate return
for those in need and the discussion will address pros and cons
particularly for retirement purpose Emphasis on risk, Click for
Monetary Fundraised its forecast for
world economic growth to 3.9 percent for both 2018 and 2019.
Most advanced societies — the United States, Japan, Europe —
grew faster in 2017 than expected, and the momentum has carried
In October 2017, the IMF predicted 2.3 percent growth for the
U.S. economy in 2018; now the forecast is 2.9 percent. For the
world, growth in 2018 is expected to be nearly one percentage
point higher than in 2016.
extra one percentage point of production translates into
nearly $1.3 trillion more of clothes, cars, computers,
tractors, tourism, health care — and much more.
biggest danger is debt. If the world economy is overly
dependent on debt — loans to households, businesses and
governments — and debts are reaching (or have already reached)
unsustainable levels, then there’s obviously a huge
contradiction at the core of the recovery.
look at this chart and the increases from 2007 to 2016. Look
what emerging markets did. I admit when the countires
effectively gave money away they still had an obligation to
stop before it got out of hand.
include a number of traders, analysts, bankers and FAs, declared
in a conversation with this reporter that many of his millennial
clients were “astrung-out,
rattled mess” working killer hours and trying to deal
with job stress by relying on prescription and street drugs,
among them, marijuana.
he argues, that stress compounded by high market volatility has
made both young FAs as well as many seasoned advisors reliant on
weed to ease anxiety and is a cause of their losing that
much-needed performance edge. marijuana
clouds thinking and kills motivation.
The illustration is exaclty how life works. And your investments
65-year-old couple retiring in 2018 can expect to pay an
estimated $280,000 in health care costs in retirement,
according to a new report. That marks a 2% increase over last
year and a 75% increase since 2002, the report said.
The $280,000 or similar is a worst case scenario. Many people
will not be able to afford that- certainly for two- and while
there are ways to cover part of the costs, Medicaid may be final
result. Not a stretch here- it just involves money which most
retirees will simply not have. Yes, if a house is involved, it
looks like coverage is available.
move to a uniform assistance policy for homeowners hit by
natural disasters, coupled with changes in lending standards
after the financial crisis, helped keep foreclosure figures
for hurricane-affected areas in Texas and Florida below
pre-storm levels. Meg Burns, a former official in the
Department of Housing and Urban Development who now works on
housing policy issues at FSR, said the effects of Superstorm
Sandy "informed our thinking to get all of the government
entities around the table to make some consistent policy."
SEC Proposes 'Best Interest' Guidance
"While the proposed regulation is titled 'Regulation Best
Interest,' the proposal does not define the term 'best
interest' ... Rather, its view is that whether a broker-dealer
acts in the best interest of a retail customer when making a
recommendation will depend upon the facts and
circumstances of the particular recommendation and the
particular retail customer, along with the circumstances of
the four specific components of the Regulation Best
This appears to be nothing more than 'what is suitability'
Neither of which set any type of standards required by the
broker/agent. And push come to shove and it ends up in
arbitration, the consumer will get the short end of the stick.
Why? The arbitrators are not required to know anything about
investing- though you would think otherwise. Basically,
arbitrations are simply two attorneys droning on and on about
superficial elements and whoever can muster up the best story
for the arbitrators wins. I trivialized some elements to make a
point. But the full description exists in "The Failure of
Securities Arbitration" which I wrote in 2012.While the
mechanics of arbitration has changed, the knowledge needed to
understand how investing is done in the real world is never
taught to arbitrators.
"Nothing can take the
place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more
common than unsuccessful
men with talent.
Genius will not;
unrewarded genius is almost a proverb.
Education will not; the world is full of educated
determination alone are omnipotent."
Long term care
for insuring against long-term care risk is growing: life
insurance policies that combine universal life insurance with
long-term care protection. Life combination policies have been
enjoying strong growth in recent years—256,000 were sold in
2016, up from just 86,000 as recently as 2012.
The worry among older Americans about long-term care risk is
that nearly half (45 percent) of retirees aren’t confident
that they will be able to pay for long-term care, according to
a survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute; an even
higher percentage of workers (57 percent) share that same
concern. A poll by LIMRA in 2016 found that 44 percent of
retirees are concerned about long-term care expenses, up from
31 percent in 2006.
How substantial is the risk? Recent research by Rand Corp.
concludes that 56 percent of people aged 57 to 61 will spend
at least one night in a nursing home during their lifetimes.
People in this age group run a 10 percent risk of spending
three years or more in a nursing home, and a 5 percent chance
of spending more than four years in one.
The big financial risk lies with those longer stays. The
median annual cost of a private nursing home room this year is
a bit over $8,000 per month, according to Genworth’s annual
cost-of-care survey, and it’s far higher in some states
($9,700 per month in California, for example).
But none of the commercial insurance options are making a
significant difference in meeting the huge unfunded need for
long-term care protection. Overall, just 12 percent of people
in their late 50s and early 60s have purchased coverage,
according to Rand.
Meanwhile, the traditional LTCI market continues to decline.
Insurance companies have had a tough time pricing risk
accurately or profitably, which has led to repeated rate hikes
on existing policies. Rate increases approved by regulators
have averaged more than 20 percent annually in recent years,
according to a study by the Society of Actuaries. Many
carriers have simply stopped writing new policies.
4/24: Health care costs, desire to keep active cited as reasons
for working past retirement age A change in plans
by Philip Joens / News Tribune
Older workers, defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as
workers ages 55 and up, made up the smallest segment of the
workforce between 1970-2000. By 2023, the BLS projects, 41
million older workers will participate in the workforce,
including 13 million ages 65 or older.
In May 2017, the BLS projected the workforce growth rate
for 65- to 74-year-olds will grow by 55 percent. The
percentage of people age 75 and older working will grow by
86 percent. During that same time frame, the BLS expects the
overall labor force to grow by only 5 percent.
Last year, the bureau said baby boomers are primarily
responsible for these increases.
“They are healthier and have a longer life expectancy than
previous generations,” the BLS said in a 2016 study. “Changes
to Social Security benefits and employee retirement plans,
along with the need to save more for retirement, create
incentives to keep working.” About 27 percent of older workers work part time and about
40 percent of people ages 65 and older work part time,
the BLS said. Hardenbrook, from AARP, said changing retirement
benefits are one reason many people work later in life now
report from the Institute for Public Policy Research
(IPPR) argues that the bank has kept interest rates
too low for too long.
Just the last sentences....
Eurozone blues: The
week has brought two troubling pieces of news
for the health of the single currency area, warns Wolfgang Münchau. First,
a meeting between Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron
confirmed that the two leaders have very different ideas about
the future. It now seems certain that Germany will not agree
to a central eurozone budget, nor a common deposit insurance
to weather macroeconomic shocks. Second, a sudden decline
in eurozone economic activity means another downturn is not
unthinkable. That data could be a fluke; if not,
the combination could be lethal.
It may be that global activity will be OK for 2018, but if so,
2019 could finally be when the mess starts
machine should be able to collect half of the detritus in the
patch – about 40,000 metric tons – within five years.
Great Pacific Garbage Patch (GPGP) spans 617,763 sq miles -
more than twice the size of France, and contains at least
79,000 tons of plastic,
than 8 million tons of plastic is dumped into our oceans
every year, according to the US-based Plastic Oceans
to 90 per cent of the world’s plastic items are never recycled,
and scientists believe nearly every piece ever created is still
in existence somewhere, in some form, with most going into
landfill or the environment. Single-use plastic, such as water
bottles and nappies, take 450 years to break down.
Treasuries 10 year
4/24: If you
see it, report it. Nice thought at times but it did not help
Maroney’s dark journey
The Olympic champion suffered years of sexual abuse by US team
doctor Larry Nassar — and powerful institutions failed to protect her at every turn
And another homily- 'the truth will set you free'. Maybe, but
not where a lot of money is concerned. Even more so
where women were involved since men tended to be the
corporate bigwigs. .
life remains the most popular product in the industry, having
accounted for 36% of life insurance premium in 2016, followed
by index universal life at 21%, term life with 21%, and
variable universal life at 6% (versus 33% in 2000),
age 65 to 74 spent an average $5,832 on entertainment in 2015,
according to a study from the Employment Benefit Research
Institute, based in Washington, D.C. Entertainment spending
declines with age; people 85 and over in the study spent
$2,232 on average
a married couple in their late 60s can expect to spend close
to $13,000 a year in medical expenses. That assumes $8,000 in
Medicare premiums and supplemental insurance premiums, $1,200
for drug coverage, and $3,700 in out-of-pocket expenses.
imbalances," in Fed speak, are asset bubbles, a phenomenon
when prices are out of whack with economic reality. In a
credit-based economy, assets are collateral for debt. And
inflated asset prices put the financial system, meaning the
lenders, at risk when those asset prices deflate. Since the
Fed has to take care of the financial system, and since it
blew up so wonderfully last time due to asset bubbles
deflating, the Fed is right to be worried about it. At
first the hawks, the rare ones; and now even the doves.
bond yields remain low by historical comparison, and spreads
of yields on junk bonds above those on comparable-maturity
Treasury securities are near the lower end of their historical
on leveraged loans and securitized products [CLOs] backed by
those loans remain narrow.
of multifamily residential and industrial commercial real
estate (CRE) have risen, while capitalization rates for these
segments have reached historical lows.
business leverage outside the financial sector has risen
to levels that are high relative to historical trends.
In the nonfinancial business sector, the debt-to-income
ratio has increased to near the upper end of its historical
distribution, and net leverage at speculative-grade
[junk-rated] firms is especially elevated.
we have seen in previous cycles, unexpected negative shocks
to earnings[though they're actually not unexpected, as we've
seen in the brick-and-mortar meltdown] in combination with
increased interest rates could lead to rising levels of
delinquencies among business borrowers and related stresses
to some banks' balance sheets.
you're one of the approximately 65 million Americans in
low-paid service jobs, getting a share of that economic
prosperity may be unbearably difficult. Jobs may be plentiful,
but finding one that pays better than your current gig is much
more rare than commonly believed, according to new research
paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
you start in one of those low-wage occupations, you have a
higher probability of becoming unemployed than moving up the
authors looked at 175,000 workers in so-called low-quality
jobs -- with low pay, unpredictable scheduling and few or no
benefits -- and examined how those people's jobs changed over
a six-year period ending in 2017. Of this group, only 5.2
percent were in a higher-paying job one year later, the
authors found. By contrast, more than 10 percent left the
workforce and 6.7 percent became unemployed.
jobs they upgraded to included work as nursing aides, customer
service representatives, administrative assistants or wholesale
and manufacturing sales. None of the "better" jobs typical for
workers leaving low-wage work were in production, the paper
most common "better" job that low-wage workers moved into was
truck driving. About one in 300 made this move. That's in line
with other research that has found some kind of truck driving a
common "opportunity job," paying around the national
average and accessible to people without college degrees. Other
opportunity jobs included clerks, automotive technicians and
findings directly contradict the rosy discussion of today's
job market.Those who favor minimal regulation and
oppose raising wages for service jobs often say such jobs are
short-term and entry-level, providing workers with a first step
on the ladder up job mobility.
New York Fed study's authors say, "If low-wage jobs are
simply a stepping stone to higher-quality jobs, then the
problem of low-wage work can be solved via the labor market."
But, they added, "If, on the other hand, people tend to get
trapped in low-wage jobs that are difficult to escape, then
some more proactive policies may be warranted."
the article ended with this-"The
only way to create a large number of family-supporting jobs
that will rebuild the middle class is by upgrading
the millions of precarious, low-skill, and low-wage service
class jobs we already have."
what is meant by upgrading
the millions of precarious, low-skill, and low-wage
service class jobs we already have.?????"
doesn't make sense. If you take a hamburger flipper- how is that
going to be upgraded?? In truth, that job will be lost to a
robot by the early to mid 2020s. It was written by someone
analyst at the New York Fed so one assumes it carries some
credence. Darned if I can figure it out.
ETFs. This is from Proshares. Look at all the different types
and, particularly, the start dates. Tough to figure out how some
will fare when the market implodes. Expense ratios are fine
until you get to the esoteric structures
share of global wealth is shrinking. By some estimates, the
United States accounted for roughly 50 percent of global output
at the end of World War II. By 1985, its share stood at 22.5
percent. It has fallen to 15.1 percent today, and theInternational
Monetary Fundprojects that it will slip
to 13.7 percent by 2023.
proliferation of various technologies — from crude explosives to
advanced robotics — has made it easier for even relatively small
and weak countries and nonstate actors to challenge the big and
powerful United States.
United States spends more on its military than the next
seven or eight nations combined. Total annual expenditures,
including for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, have averaged
$561 billion since 2001. So, how much more must Americans
spend to maintain a military edge sufficient to deter attacks
$196 billion more, on average, over the next five years. The
Trump administration projects spending $3.78 trillion from
2019 to 2023, or $756.9 billion a year.
truly wish this was a funny cartoon. But the debt will kill
U.S. growth later on
and worst funds and ETFs . I put the whole article here
due to the number of graphs and because I wanted this in one
place for some work I am doing. Bon Apetit.
the beginning of the second quarter of 2018, only the Consumer
Non-cyclicals sector earns an Attractive-or-better rating. Our
sector ratings are based on the aggregation of our fund ratings
for every ETF and mutual fund in each sector. Our fund ratings
are based on aggregations of the ratings of the stocks they
hold. See last quarter’s Sector Ratingshere.
looking for sector funds that hold quality stocks should look no
further than the Consumer Non-cyclicals and Technology sectors.
These sectors house the highest rated funds. Figures 4 through 7
provide more details. The primary driver behind an Attractive
fund rating is goodportfolio
management, or good stock picking, with lowtotal
ratings do not always correlate with Attractive-or-better total
annual costs. This fact underscores that (1)cheap
funds can dupe investorsand (2)
investors should invest only in funds with good stocks and low
Figures 4 through 13 for a detailed breakdown of ratings
distributions by sector. See ourETF
& mutual fund screenerfor rankings,
ratings and reports on 7000+ mutual funds and 400+ ETFs. Our
fund rating methodology is detailedhere.
of our reports on the best & worst ETFs and mutual funds in
every sector are availablehere.
1: Ratings For All Sectors
New Constructs, LLC and company filings
earn an Attractive-or-better Predictive Rating, an ETF or mutual
fund must have high-quality holdings and low costs. Only the top
30% of all ETFs and mutual funds earn our Attractive or better
MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) is the top rated Consumer
Non-cyclicals fund. It gets our Very Attractive rating by
allocating over 71% of its value to Attractive-or-better-rated
Energy Services Fund (RYESX) is the worst Energy fund. It gets
our Very Unattractive rating by allocating over 67% of its value
to Unattractive-or-worse-rated stocks. Making matters worse, it
charges investors annual costs of 7.73%.
2 shows the distribution of our Predictive Ratings for all
sector ETFs and mutual funds.
2: Distribution of ETFs & Mutual Funds (Assets and Count)
by Predictive Rating
New Constructs, LLC and company filings
3 offers additional details on the quality of the sector funds.
Note that the average total annual cost of Very Unattractive
funds is over three times that of Very Attractive funds.
3: Predictive Rating Distribution Stats
Avg TAC = Weighted Average Total Annual Costs
New Constructs, LLC and company filings
table shows that only the best of the best funds get our Very
Attractive Rating: they must hold good stocks AND have low
costs. Investors deserve to have the best of both and we are
here to give it to them.
4 presents a mapping of Very Attractive funds by sector. The
chart shows the number of Very Attractive funds in each sector
and the percentage of assets in each sector allocated to funds
that are rated Very Attractive.
4: Very Attractive ETFs & Mutual Funds by Sector
New Constructs, LLC and company filings
5 presents the data charted in Figure 4.
5: Very Attractive ETFs & Mutual Funds by Sector
New Constructs, LLC and company filings
6 presents a mapping of Attractive funds by sector. The chart
shows the number of Attractive funds in each sector and the
percentage of assets allocated to Attractive-rated funds in each
6: Attractive ETFs & Mutual Funds by Sector
New Constructs, LLC and company filings
7 presents the data charted in Figure 6.
7: Attractive ETFs & Mutual Funds by Sector
New Constructs, LLC and company filings
8 presents a mapping of Neutral funds by sector. The chart shows
the number of Neutral funds in each sector and the percentage of
assets allocated to Neutral-rated funds in each sector.
8: Neutral ETFs & Mutual Funds by Sector
New Constructs, LLC and company filings
9 presents the data charted in Figure 8.
9: Neutral ETFs & Mutual Funds by Sector
New Constructs, LLC and company filings
10 presents a mapping of Unattractive funds by fund sector. The
chart shows the number of Unattractive funds in each sector and
the percentage of assets allocated to Unattractive-rated funds
in each sector.
landscape of sector ETFs and mutual funds is littered with
Unattractive funds. Investors in Telecom have put over 57% of
their assets in Unattractive-rated funds.
10: Unattractive ETFs & Mutual Funds by Sector
New Constructs, LLC and company filings
11 presents the data charted in Figure 10.
11: Unattractive ETFs & Mutual Funds by Sector
New Constructs, LLC and company filings
12 presents a mapping of Very Unattractive funds by fund sector.
The chart shows the number of Very Unattractive funds in each
sector and the percentage of assets in each sector allocated to
funds that are rated Very Unattractive.
12: Very Unattractive ETFs & Mutual Funds by Sector
New Constructs, LLC and company filings
13 presents the data charted in Figure 12.
13: Very Unattractive ETFs & Mutual Funds by Sector
paper we study the impact of immigration to the United States
on the vote for the Republican Party by analyzing county-level
data on election outcomes between 1990 and 2010. Our main
contribution is to separate the effect of high-skilled and
low-skilled immigrants, by exploiting the different
geography and timing of the inflows of these two groups of
immigrants. We find that an increase in the first type of
immigrants decreases the share of the Republican vote, while
an inflow of the second type increases it. These effects
are mainly due to the local impact of immigrants on votes of
U.S. citizens and they seem independent of the country of
origin of immigrants. We also find that the pro-Republican
impact of low-skilled immigrants is stronger in low-skilled
and non-urban counties. This is consistent with
citizens' political preferences shifting towards the
Republican Party in places where low-skilled immigrants are
more likely to be perceived as competition in the labor market
and for public resources.
often provide guarantees that resemble out-of-the-money put
options, exposing them to tail risk. Using the U.S. life
insurance industry as a laboratory, we present a model in
which variable annuity (VA) guarantees and associated hedging
operate within the regulatory capital framework to create
incentives for insurers to overweight illiquid bonds
("reach-for-yield"). We then calibrate the model to
insurer-level data, and show that the VA-writing insurers'
collective allocation to illiquid bonds exacerbates
system-wide fire sales in the event of negative asset shocks,
plausibly erasing up to 20-70% of insurers' equity capital.
A lot more people are going to need more coverage with the more
powerful storms from now on.\ We have pissed off Mother Earth
Five myths about recycling. Better to recycle than
not but the accumulation of plastic will keep adding up. .We
pretty much made the ocean a plastic garbage pit. See below for
more concise commentary.
from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) finds out-of-pocket
health care expenses are typically miscalculated, as the median
cumulative for long-lived elderly people (those who pass away at
95-years-old or older) rounded out at $27,000. Yet, this doesn’t
signify low health care costs, either. Ten percent of this group
reported spending $172,000 in health care expenses, and 5% said
they paid $269,000 in out-of-pocket medical costs. Services
included hospital stays, nursing home stays, outpatient surgery,
doctor’s visits, prescriptions drugs, dental services, home
health care and hospice care, according to EBRI. Additionally,
all participants surveyed were at least 70 years of age.
the services listed, nursing home amenities resulted in higher
costs. Of those in the 10% and 5% group, out-of-pocket medical
costs declined to $96,000 and $154,000, respectively, without
the nursing home services.
It is true that if you had to pay all expenses for nursing home,
etc. very few will be able to afford it. The result for those
with limited assets will be Medicaid. It will require a
spend down of assets to state requirements and, if you own a
home, any excess costs you were unable to pay for care,
the state will put a lien on your home when you pass. The rules
are lengthy and involved and if you do not have a lot of money
and this cost of medical care (I particularly reference
Alzheimers since it can take a decade or more to die) will pass
through a lot of red tape so be aware and do some homework. I
taught an 8 hour long term care.course for continuing education
for insurance licensees and it is tough stuff due to the myriad
of ways one is given care. But except for skilled nursing home
care, Medicare does NOT cover nursing hoe care and certainly not
prices fell on Friday morning following a string of bearish
news, but the market soon rebounded and prices look set to
continue their upward trend.
than 1 million Americans could face cuts to their pension
benefits of about 90% if Congress does not act to shore up
the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., pension actuary Ted
Goldman told a congressional committee. Goldman said about 100
multiemployer pensions insured by the PBGC are likely to fail
in the next two decades, and even if they don't, the
agency could still run out of money to cover pensions by
investors have wholeheartedly embraced passive investing. Nearly
$6.7 trillion rested in passive funds at the end of 2017.
While actively managed U.S. equity funds saw $207 billion in
outflows last year, passive U.S. equity funds raked in $220
billion in new money. Not to be outdone, passive taxable-bond
and international-equity funds each also enjoyed inflows in
excess of $200 billion last year. Clearly, indexing is no
longer something investors do just for cheap U.S. equity
No idea it was THIS big
National Park sits squarely over a giant, active volcano
that's 44 miles across.
and private debt worldwide has reached a record high of $164
trillion, according to the International Monetary Fund. If
this trend continues, nations might have trouble paying
off debt and handling a recession should financing
And consider this;
Africa is falling
into a new debt crisis, with 40% of the region now at high
risk of debt distress - double the proportion of five years
ago. Officials at the IMF are now urging all African
countries to raise taxes to provide more scope for paying
interest, which has increased to levels last experienced
at the start of the century
If a recession occurs soon (say within 1.5 years, I have no
doubt that adding more debt to get us out of the mess will
destroy growth for more than a decade.
where is the IMF telling the U.S. to raise taxes?
Health care will cost $280,000 in retirement — and that
doesn’t include this huge expense By ALESSANDRA MALITO /
MarketWatch The cost of health care for a
65-year-old American couple retiring this year rose to
$280,000 — a mere 2% if that’s any comfort — but
that’s no reason for a sigh of relief. The figure doesn’t
include long-term care costs, and it’s going to go up every
year for the foreseeable future, experts said. The estimate, calculated by
Fidelity Investments, has jumped 75% since the company’s
first estimate in 2002 (then $160,000). The figure includes
life expectancies for the couple, and also includes Medicare
coverage and copays, vision, over-the-counter medications
and dentures. Without much doubt, the cost of
health care in retirement will continue to rise, said Hope
Manion, senior vice president and health actuary at Fidelity
Investments Benefits Consulting. “Things will still continue
to increase and sometimes steeply, particularly as new
treatments come to market and new drugs come to market and
they’re effective,” she said. For example, the estimate
jumped 6% between 2016 and 2017, Fidelity said. But there’s one thing these numbers
do not include: long-term care cost, which is “extremely
expensive” and in an unpredictable insurance market.
An American turning 65 today has a 70% chance of needing
some type of long-term care service, which supports daily
living tasks (think: eating, bathing, going to the
restroom), according to the U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services. The national average cost for long-term care
in the U.S. in 2016 was $225 a day (or $6,844 per month for
a semi-private room) in a nursing home (and $253 per day, or
$7,698 per month for a private room); $119 per day, or
$3,628 per month for care in an assisted living facility;
$20.50 an hour for a health aide, or $68 per day for
services in an adult day health care center, according to
the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
How horrific is it
that we are particularly disturbed by one way of killing
Syrian children but not the other?”
International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for global
economic growth this year and next year to 3.9% from 3.7%.
However, the IMF has warned trade restrictions could undercut
Maybe it's just my nature but I do not feel very optimistic for
the latter part of the year. A big offset to that is if we get a
GOOD negotiation with North Korea. That will drop global risk by
a few minutes on the nuclear doomsday clock
2018 Contributions (Skloff)
Update on yield curve
yield curve raises alarms.WSJ's Daniel Kruger and
Sam Goldfarb: "The gap between short- and long-term
Treasury yields is at its narrowest in more than a decade,
reflecting investors’ confidence that the Federal Reserve will
maintain its current pace of interest-rate increases despite
continuing skepticism about the longer-term outlook for
economic growth and inflation. The difference between the
two-year Treasury yield and the 10-year Treasury yield,
known on Wall Street as the 2-10 spread, settled Tuesday at
0.428 percentage point, its tightest since 2007, before
steepening modestly Wednesday. Two-year yields tend to rise
along with investors’ expectations for tighter Fed
interest-rate policy, while longer-term yields are more
responsive to sentiment about prospects for the economy."
Simplified Underwriting is One Way Life Insurers Can Reach
the 19 Million 'Stuck Shoppers' LIMRA
researchSimplified Underwriting - Life Insurance shows there
are about 19 million “stuck shoppers” - potential life
insurance buyers who start the process but never finish.
To help combat this issue, many companies are implementing
simplified underwriting processes to lower costs and improve
customers’ buying experience. LIMRA finds only 15 percent
of all U.S. households shop for life insurance in a
24-month period. Of those, just two-thirds actually get a
quote for a life insurance policy. A possible
deterrent can be the time consuming and complicated nature
of the full underwriting process. Fifty-two percent of
potential life insurance buyers said they would be more
likely to purchase life insurance if they didn’t have to go
through a physical exam, according to the 2018 Insurance
Barometer Study by LIMRA and Life Happens.
The 'no physical; quotes may be higher than those who will go
through full medical review. Those who take the 'no physical'
may be a pool of those with less than perfect health
OPM doesn’t have a contingency plan if long-term care
insurance market upends Long-term care insurance premiums
rose as much as 126 percent the last time OPM re-competed
its contract for the program back in 2016. The premium
hikes affected roughly 264,000 active and retired
federal employees, who are paying an average of $111 more
per month for the same coverage they had in previous
years. With the current pace of change
in the long-term care insurance market, FLTCIP
participants could see even higher premiums in the future,
the IG said. Premiums rose the previous time OPM re-competed
its long-term care contract in 2009, but the increases
weren’t as dramatic.
4/19:. The probability that the Fed will raise
rates three more times in 2018, derived from prices in
futures markets, rose above 80 per cent on Wednesday, up
from 66.3 per cent a week ago. (FT)
this has happened in human history. A combination of
cultural preferences, government decree and modern medical
technology in the world’s two largest countries has created a
gender imbalance on a continental scale. Men outnumber
women by 70 million in China and India. Now both nations
are belatedly trying to come to grips with the policies that
created this male-heavy generation.
respondents generally felt they lacked sufficient knowledge
about disruptive technologies. Read More
today’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the
critical figures and data in the energy markets this
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this
week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top
news events taking place in the global energy complex over the
past few days. We hope you enjoy.
Before we take a look at this week’s data, we would like to
inform you that we've just published a special reporton
breakthrough technology in solar. This report along with
several other reports will turn you into an expert in the
rapidly growing and dynamic solar power industry. Find out how
you can consistently make money from investing in renewable
energy. Click here to
find out more.
oil production is expected
to rise by another 125,000 bpd in May, compared to a month
- The gains will, unsurprisingly, come from
the Permian basin, which is expected to add 73,000 bpd.
- Interestingly, the number of drilled but
uncompleted wells (DUCs) continues to rise, an indication that
supply chain bottlenecks are causing some delays.
Giraffes have been a friend to fly fisherman for decades. They are
comfortable, easy going and their
long necks allow them to see fish that the angler couldn't.
Here you see the angler trying to put a Large belching Trump
fly with a 5x tippet in front of a hippo which has just risen
because he heard a loud Twitter on the water..
occurs through savings, investment, and economic growth.
Unless all three factors exist in sufficient quantities, a
society’s ability to provide retirement benefits to older
the US, all three factors are moving in the wrong direction:
In the 1970s, Americans saved 9% to 15% of their income.
Today, we save only about 4%.
In an era of near-zero interest rates, it’s a lot tougher to
generate safe investment returns. When my father retired in
1981, he could buy a certificate of deposit (CD) that paid 14%
interest. Sure, inflation was higher in 1981 than it is now.
But his after-inflation return on investment was nearly 6%
higher than it is today.
CD interest rate: 14%
on investment: 3.7%
inflation rate: 2.38%
CD interest rate: 0.75%
on investment: -1.63%
In the 1970s and 1980s, there were six years in which the
economy grew at a rate of 9% or higher. Since then, the
growth rate has exceeded 5% in only a handful of years. In
2017, the economy expanded at only a 2.3% rate.
of these factors forces retirees – and anyone thinking of
retirement – to save a great deal more money to supplement
Social Security and pension income they receive or expect to
Best audience I ever had.
Rapt with attention
proportion of people paying into the Social Security system to
beneficiaries is now at a historic low. And in the next 25 to
50 years the ratio will go even lower. In 1960, the
worker-to-beneficiary ratio was 5.1:1. In 2005, it was 3.3:1.
In 2020, it will be about 2.6:1. It is projected to be 2:1 by
FindingsIn 2016, the US spent 17.8% of
its gross domestic product on health care, and spending in the
other countries ranged from 9.6% (Australia) to 12.4%
(Switzerland). The proportion of the population with health
insurance was 90% in the US, lower than the other countries
(range, 99%-100%), and the US had the highest proportion of
private health insurance (55.3%). For some determinants of
health such as smoking, the US ranked second lowest of the
countries (11.4% of the US population ≥15 years smokes daily;
mean of all 11 countries, 16.6%), but the US had the highest
percentage of adults who were overweight or obese at 70.1%
(range for other countries, 23.8%-63.4%; mean of all 11
countries, 55.6%). Life expectancy in the US was the
lowest of the 11 countries at 78.8 years (range for other
countries, 80.7-83.9 years; mean of all 11 countries, 81.7
years), and infant mortality was the highest (5.8 deaths per
1000 live births in the US; 3.6 per 1000 for all 11
countries). The US did not differ substantially from the
other countries in physician workforce (2.6 physicians per
1000; 43% primary care physicians), or nursing workforce (11.1
nurses per 1000). The US had comparable numbers of hospital
beds (2.8 per 1000) but higher utilization of magnetic
resonance imaging (118 per 1000) and computed tomography (245
per 1000) vs other countries. The US had similar rates of
utilization (US discharges per 100 000 were 192 for acute
myocardial infarction, 365 for pneumonia, 230 for chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease; procedures per 100 000 were 204
for hip replacement, 226 for knee replacement, and 79 for
coronary artery bypass graft surgery). Administrative costs of
care (activities relating to planning, regulating, and
managing health systems and services) accounted for 8% in the
US vs a range of 1% to 3% in the other countries. For
pharmaceutical costs, spending per capita was $1443 in the US
vs a range of $466 to $939 in other countries. Salaries of
physicians and nurses were higher in the US; for example,
generalist physicians salaries were $218 173 in the US
compared with a range of $86 607 to $154 126 in the other
United States spent approximately twice as much as other
high-income countries on medical care, yet utilization rates
in the United States were largely similar to those in other
nations. Prices of labor and goods, including pharmaceuticals,
and administrative costs appeared to be the major drivers of
the difference in overall cost between the United States and
other high-income countries. As patients, physicians, policy
makers, and legislators actively debate the future of the US
health system, data such as these are needed to inform policy
it came to many of the measures of health system function, the
United States was in the middle of the pack, not an outlier, as
Dr. Jha had expected. Many analysts have called for the country
to shift its physician training away from specialty care and
toward more primary care medicine, for example. But the study
found that 43 percent of U.S. doctors practice primary care
medicine, about typical for the group.
often argued that patients in the United States use too much
medical care. But the country was below average on measures of
how often patients went to the doctor or hospital. The nation
did rank near the top in its use of certain medical services,
including expensive imaging tests and specific surgical
procedures, like knee replacements and C-sections.
data are consistent with other evidence that health care systems
to converge, as information and technologies spread around
the world among doctors and administrators.
the other humanitarian crisis
A generation ago, it was the wealthiest country in Latin
America. Now, following the implosion of the economy,
thousands of desperate migrants are fleeing into Colombia and
Brazil daily. At the current rate, over 5 per cent of
Venezuela’s population will depart this year.
I gave up on South America a long time ago.. So much is in
conflict that it will take two decades to- at a minimum.
Overdose deaths from heroin, synthetics like fentanyl, and
prescription painkillers, reached 42,000 in 2016
put the number of Amazon Prime members at 65 million.
medical advanced directive but expressly intended for one’s
on the stage of the disease and the degree of disruption of
brain systems important for self-awareness, patients have widely
varied insight into their predicament and appreciation of the
impact of their neurological disease on their work.
lack of self-awareness was disturbingly evident in the case of a
professor in her mid-60s who continued to give lectures,
supervise students and even consult, despite being diagnosed
with Alzheimer’s disease of mild to moderate severity.
(EFM- someone must step in to 'correct' the situation due
to, among other things the liability exposure of causing harm to
others. That said, a lot of employees may not want to take
action because the person is a superior. Even if not,
there still is the element of getting fired because it was not
your job, not every one would agree (enablers) etc.
strong cognitive-testing evidence of her deteriorating mental
status and examples of her difficulty carrying out
professional responsibilities were brought to her attention,
she insisted that her problems were only minor. "
Studies also show that the person may have absolutely no clue
to their situation and refuse to receive any feedback on their
condition. I had thought that most people- certainly in
'higher functioning' positions - would know something was
going wrong from the beginning of dementia- was simply wrong.
blueprint exists to guide me in this process, so I have broken
down this seemingly overwhelming task into manageable steps:
Crafting a written document articulating advanced directives for
work that represent a personal commitment to how, depending on
my cognitive status, I would want to comport myself in the
Sharing the document with others I trust, who can support me
through this process.
Recording a video that communicates my wishes and can be used to
speak to my future self.
Identifying a few peers or colleagues I can confide in, who can
access my work and make a fair and reasonable assessment of my
Explicitly empowering these individuals to share their
observations with me.
Finally, if concerns are raised, having a plan in place for
evaluating — via formal assessment by a cognitive neurologist or
geriatric psychiatrist — whether my decline exceeds the bounds
of normal aging and is truly worrisome."
central bank is concerned riskier assets such as stocks and
high-yield corporate debt could be set for widespread losses
if there is a sudden increase in government bond yields.
bank warns current asset valuations, which are reliant on
global bond yields staying low, are "elevated relative to
addition, it says returns for holding many risk assets have
fallen to record low levels.
RBA cautions that a sharp increase in long-term government
bond yields toward historically normal levels "could result in
widespread asset price falls if it is not accompanied by
for fixed income securities could fall sharply if interest
rates rise substantially because of higher realised or
expected inflation, while valuations for assets more broadly
could fall if risk premia return to historically more normal
chart from the RBA shows how riskier assets performed during the
"taper tantrum" of 2013 when US bond yields spiked as the
Federal Reserve announced that it would begin reducing monthly
asset purchases as part of its quantitative easing program.
my issue with this and all other risk identification for the
last 60 years is this .......article
led people to the conclusion that risk, not the best price,
should be the crux of any portfolio. Furthermore, once an
established, building a portfolio was an exercise in
plugging investments into the formula.
for an investor dealing with retirement or some other specific
goal ends up being some type of superficial and sophomoric 1)
drivel of simply asking the investor. And broker dealer firms
questionnaires back up what the investor state by asking how
much experience have you had in the market. Rubbish. Being in a
401k for 20 years does not make sophistication. What about the
agent/broker> On what basis will the expertise come from. Not
from licensing training where you do not have to know how to use
a financial calculator. Not from software- many now extolling
their value because they include behavioral elements. Nope.
Better maybe(?) but still subjective. So as repeated here (maybe
too often I admit) is to break down the various investments to
how much they can lose. Admittedly the analysis can only
estimate for the worst case situation (recession) for mutual
funds and ETFs (with track records) so that the range of numbers
can be delivered to the client with the statement. "this is how
much you will probably lose in a recession. Is that acceptable/"
As to what range that loss is in (conservative, moderate, etc.
here is a link to a Linkedin
article explaining the first phase of the Preliminary Patent
Process noted above.
the past decade, medical professionals have increasingly been
diagnosing and treating seniors with relocation stress
syndrome (RSS), also known as “transfer trauma.” The syndrome
is characterized by a combination of symptoms – including
anxiety, confusion and loneliness – that often present
themselves after a move to a senior living.
A series of downbeat business surveys in the eurozone,
plus an unexpected third successive monthly fall in industrial
production in February, have cast some doubt on the robustness
of the European recovery. Employment in the US has been
weaker than expected, as has Japanese consumer spending and
wage growth, meaning Japan is likely to remain below its 2
per cent inflation target for some time to come. Activity in
the Chinese economy, meanwhile, also appears to be soft.
Overall, the global economy is performing below expectations:
Citigroup’s economic surprise indicator, which measures actual
data relative to predictions, has turned sharply down. More
policy-induced risk, especially from such an erratic source as
US President Donald Trump, is precisely what the world does not
bad news should remind policymakers that the world economy
remains in uncharted territory. Wage and price
inflation have manifestly failed to respond as normal to years
of sustained growth. Expectations that economies are
at or close to sustainable capacity and that prices are just
about to take off have repeatedly been confounded. Even in
the US, wage growth remains weak. Perhaps the most dangerous
idea in modern policymaking is that of normalisation: the
belief that the world economy went through a time-limited
period of extraordinary weakness following the global
financial crisis, but that it will necessarily return to the
status quo. The reality is that the growth in sustainable
output may have slowed indefinitely since before the crisis
across many of the advanced economies. And even so, given that
the monetary policy pedal is still pressed close to the floor in
some economies, particularly Japan, it is far from clear that
policymakers can sustainably maintain domestic demand expansion
sufficiently to fill the output gap.
EFM- I have had and continue to
have a rather a bleak attitude toward the world economy. With a
potential trade war, Syria, North Korea and a raving mad
President, it may be possible to get through 2018 but a lot of
bad stuff will through the world out of spin in 2019. Should be
pretty bad with Trump.
One way to understand China is to look at the statistics. Real
income per person has increased nearly tenfold since 1990. Since
the early 1980s, the number of extremely poor people in China
has fallen by more than three-quarters of a billion people, more
than half the population of the country. China consumed more
cement in a recent three-year period than the US used in the
entire 20th century.
Some will be tempted to dismiss the statistics as irrelevant
book-learning, and declare that only personal experience
matters. There is certainly something in that, especially when a
situation is fast-moving or contains soft, hard-to-quantify
details. As the Nobel laureate economist Friedrich Hayek
remarked, the “knowledge of the particular circumstances of time
and place” is important and often neglected.
HR McMaster — who before he was US president Donald Trump’s
former national security adviser, was a counterinsurgency
pioneer in Iraq — had a similar concern. He once told me the
army used to wrongly believe that “situational understanding
could be delivered on a computer screen”. It would be
convenient if that was possible, but as Gen McMaster and his
colleagues learnt the hard way, it is not. Sometimes you have
to be there to understand
A new book by the late Hans Rosling and his family, Factfulness,
advocates the merits of understanding the world both through
the data and through personal experience — not of news
stories or tourist traps, but of the everyday lives being lived
all over the world. “Numbers will never tell the full story of
what life on Earth is all about,” wrote Rosling, despite being
the world’s most famous statistical guru. But the story they do
tell matters. In statistics, as elsewhere, hard logic and
personal impressions work best when they reinforce and correct
need to increase financial literacy “seems like an obvious
solution,, but “like many obvious solutions, upon closer
inspection it’s clear that financial education alone
hasn’t worked — and perhaps it never can.” She suggests
that this is because “the way our brains are wired to process
information typically works against us when it comes to making
sound financial decisions, and changing behavior takes more
than a single class.”
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) shares that view,
Menard points out, citing a 2016 NPR broadcast in which the
CFPB said that, “There’s no clear link between taking
personal finance classes and saving more, paying off debts
or raising your credit score.”My issue when hearing of
financial literacy covers investing, mutual funds et al. What
is really disconcerting the fact that the issue of savings et
al is done at the grade school- certainly high school- level.
I can do the instruction for people who have had some basic'
knowledge of the world.' But an instructor for the schools
noted that the students did NOT learn- or at least retain-
what they were taught and it would not work unless and until
there were real life examples to validate the learning. He
then said that the school coursework was a failure. As
to that level of knowledge, it is next to impossible for my
effort to succeed.
of the problems with financial education,” says Menard, “is
that it can become obsolete in a relatively short span of
time,” adding that “new financial products are engineered and
introduced more quickly than organizations offering financial
education can keep up with them.” She argues that “old
rules of thumb” are not sufficient now. Other problems, she
cognitive bias to lend more importance to present needs and
wants than those in the distant future;
tendency to hold on to the first bit of information one
acquires as a baseline for comparison;
bias toward new information that confirms preconceived
notions, and to ignore evidence that contradicts them; and
I submit that loss aversion is a key element but my recent
work pretty much changes that concern. However, it may never
be recognized by the industry since it changes the status quo
of investing. In essence even though one builds a much better
mouse trap, no one may know about it if the powers to be want
it squashed. I do not have the power- read lots and lots of
money- to force the system to adhere to a fiduciary duty. I
know what I have done and it will keep major losses to about
12% in a recession. No liquid alternatives, hedging, futures,
derivatives, yada, yada, yada. Simple. Another issue is the
new financial products ARE growing like weeds. Certainly with
all the indexed offerings which seem to come out each week. .
But different than Menard's comments above, the industry never
has been that astute anyway, They cannot grasp (as a whole)
new products because they do not have the requisite skills to
begin with. Pundits and advisors have railed at this for a
long time but the simple fact is that no broker, registered
investment advisor or insurance agents has been required to
know how to use a financial calculator. You CANNOT do
financial 'whatever' without some skills in what the
numbers represent. Purchased software does not include
formulas or lessons to work in the real world. I mean, a life
insurance agent able to grasp the nuances of a new indexed
annuity without running pertinent numbers on a calculator??
are further comments: The
CFPB also offers some ideas, Menard says. She cites a 2017
CFPB report in which it sets forth five principles of
financial education that can lead to greater success:
information to individuals’ specific circumstances,
challenges, goals and situations.
timely information that is relevant and that can be used to
address a specific situation or meet a specific goal.
general skills such as knowing where to obtain reliable
information and how to process it.
individuals’ confidence regarding meeting financial goals
and support their ability to focus on their standards and
values, and to persevere when challenged.
create habit and systems that make it easy for individuals
to implement their decisions.
suggests that employers and retirement plan professionals
that are pondering instituting a financial education program
may find the following considerations helpful:
does the financial education look like? Will it work for our
who is doing it?? What background? Has done education for how
long? Does it include insurance ,(life and disability), long
term care, life settlement ( as applicable)
the program offer access to human coaches or advisors?
Only for large companies. Can get expensive
problems will the program address? How does it help employees
to address their financial needs and set goals?
Everything starts with risk. Which is not taught for investing
in the real world
there mechanism that encourages employees to be accountable
about their financial decisions?
An ongoing budget which many hate to do. Monthly or quarterly
newsletter (though must be simple)
the program include a way for employees to estimate their
income during retirement?
it can be done without too much difficulty.But must consider
RISK of LOSS first and foremost. Most practitioners will screw
this up if employee may not have enough .
4/15: Frankly I do not believe that
consumers recognize just how far AI and automation will go. AI
et al will take over many/most functions of humans by 2050. We
may become 'unnecessary"
inverted yield curve remains a powerful signal of a looming
recession and that is still the case even if the current
ultra-low level of U.S. interest rates are taken into account,
according to fresh research by the Federal Reserve Bank of San
negative curve, where the return to investors on shorter-dated
securities is above that on longer-term bonds, has predicted all
nine U.S. recessions since 1955, with a lag of six to 24 months.
Some have argued that this time is different, because interest
rates are so low and a flattening yield curve doesn’t
necessarily mean the U.S. economic expansion is heading for
findings, published Monday in the San Francisco Fed’s regular
Economic Letter, show that the term spread, or the difference
between short- and long-term interest rates, is as good today as
it’s always been at spotting problems ahead. But there’s no
urgency just yet. While relatively flat, the current yield
curve doesn’t signal a high risk of a downturn even though the
U.S. economic expansion is already the third longest on
future economic developments is a tricky business, but the
term spread has a strikingly accurate record for forecasting
recessions,” study authors Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens,
who are both economists at the San Francisco Fed, wrote in
their analysis. “While the current environment appears
unique compared with recent economic history, statistical
evidence suggests that the signal in the term spread is not
these hypotheses have some intuitive appeal, our analysis
shows that they are not substantiated by a statistical
analysis that incorporates the suggested factors into the type
of predictive models we use,” they wrote. “An extensive
analysis of various models leads us to conclude that the term
spread is by far the most reliable predictor of recessions.”
concern is the extra supply of bonds and other upward
pressures on longer rates even as the Fed hikes, keeping
long-term yields from falling below short-term yields.
The ballooning budget deficit that will exceed $1 trillion
next year and debt held by the public will rise from the current
74.3 percent of gross domestic product in coming years to more
than 90 percent in 2026 — and that doesn’t include the impact of
the recent tax reform. Debt-to-GDP was barely 40 percent at the
end of the Reagan administration. The deficit has to be
financed, and I suspect that will mean ever-higher rates,
which will curb economic growth, to attract overseas buyers
because we don’t have enough savings on the domestic front to
do it on our own.
we end up with a bunch of bozos who vote for a 1.3 trillion
dollar budget and nary a one had read the 2,200 page summary. It
had only been put together the night before. Actually this
is a fine example of what Congress does- it attacks a number of
critical areas/errors (such as Facebook) that may deserve
additional scrutiny but where there own kitchen is dirty.
Facebook will hurt a number of people whose background was
stolen. Every person in America is going to get creamed by the
deficit blowing up on us due to incompetency by Congress. )
It’s not only about government debt. Corporate debt stands at a
record 45.3 percent of GDP, and companies will face massive
refinancing needs — at higher rates — as that debt matures over
the next few years. All I ;lhear is that the money saved from
lower corporate taxes and the overseas cash — mostly held in
Treasuries, by the way — that can now be brought back to the
U.S. will be used for more share buybacks and M&A activity,
not to reduce debt. Again, a source of upward pressure on rates.
add in tariffs, which can raise prices inefficiently, thus
giving an upward tilt to inflation that is not based on demand.
In the case of steel and aluminum, the U.S. produces far less
than it uses. The consulting firm Trade Partnership put out a
report saying the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs would
eliminate a net 179,000 jobs, overwhelming any gains enjoyed by
the U.S. steel and aluminum manufacturers. And, we don’t even
know the impact of any retaliatory tariffs by other countries or
if certain countries decide to respond by purchasing less U.S.
debt. Either way, this again points to upward pressure on yields
rates for reasons unrelated to actual growth or demand-based
more? Consider that real income gains remain tepid and
consumption that has been fueled by a lower savings rate, which
fell to a 10-year low of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter.
Presumably, borrowing at higher interest rates will prove at
least somewhat problematic to consumers. Oh, and the Fed said
last month that American households’ outstanding debt
climbed to a record $13.1 trillion in the October-December
period. (EFM Just look at the margin debt right now, Way out
change in the structure of U.S. deficits, the ownership of
debt, and influences from the likes of tariffs and stimulus
well into an economic recovery suggests the path to a yield
curve inversion will be harder than before. Looking at
recessions before the 1950s, only about half were preceded by
an inverted curve.
is all to say we may not need an inverted yield curve as the
final arbiter of a recession. I could see it as a late 2019
event, just before the 2020 elections.
climate change may cause so-called ’100-year’ floods to occur
more frequently, even more people may be exposed to flooding
in the future. All of this highlights the critical need for
comprehensive floodplain and flood risk management
Annuity rates- I know the FED wants to keep raising rates but I
am not sure the global markets will hold up.
• 3 year
surrender period guaranteeing 2.50% for all 3 years
• 5 year
surrender period guaranteeing 3.60% for all 5 years
• 7 year
surrender period guaranteeing 3.85% for all 7 years
if it weren’t enough to deal with forgetfulness and
confusion while caring for your loved-one with Alzheimer’s,
but aggressiveness, wandering and paranoia can really put
you over the edge. Managing your loved-one’s difficult
behavior is your true testament of love and devotion. You
know it isn’t their fault, it is their disease that is
making them scream, cry or yell terrible things out at you.
Who ever said patience is a virtue, didn’t care for a
loved-one with Alzheimer’s or dementia. Perhaps a
caregiver’s only defense is to understand how to react to
difficult behaviors and be ready for them.
behaviors can be broken down into the following categories:
Wandering, Sleeping and Eating Problems, Agitation, Paranoia
and difficulty with personal tasks. This is not to say these
categories are the only forms of behavioral problems
displayed by people living with Alzheimer’s, but their
remedies may intersect other problems.
is not an uncommon hallmark of Alzheimer’s disease or
dementia. Stress in the variety of noise, clutter or
crowding can cause your loved-one to wander. The best idea
is to reduce excess stress. A person living with Alzheimer’s
disease should be settled in a quiet, clean, and spacious
environment. This will eliminate many of the unwanted
stressors, which could cause your loved-one to wander. Other
reasons why your loved-one may wander include: Feelings of
being lost, boredom, need to use the restroom or medication
order to prevent your loved-one from feeling lost or foreign
to his or her environment, provide them with familiar
objects and reassure them quite frequently that they are at
home or in a safe place. Maybe a family photo or an award he
or she has won always jogs their memory so keep it close by.
If your loved-one displays signs of boredom, give them a
task of limited difficulty. This will keep them entertained
but won’t frustrate them. Folding laundry is a great
activity for people living with Alzheimer’s or dementia.
is possible that your loved-one is wandering because they
need to use the bathroom. In which case, place elaborate
signs or pictures on bathroom doors to help guide them.
Also, it is a good idea for you to implement regular toilet
times. This will keep both of you on schedule. If your
loved-one is wandering due to medication side effects,
contact their physician to initiate a change in prescription
or to lower the dosage. Wandering can be a dangerous
behavior. Caregivers should contact their local Alzheimer’s
Association to obtain information about ‘The Wanderers
Program’ in their area.
living with Alzheimer’s or dementia often experience
sleeping and eating problems. Common causes for these
problems include: discomfort, medication, pain, dehydration,
depression and excessive sleeping or eating.
discomfort can sometimes not be conveyed by your loved-one
depending upon the severity of the disease but it can cause
eating and sleeping disturbances. Frequently monitor your
loved-one’s room temperature, lighting, noise level, and
chair or bed position. If you think your loved-one’s
medications could be curbing his or her appetite or ability
to sleep, speak to their doctor about changing or
can be a factor in eating or sleeping disturbances. Again,
sometimes a person with Alzheimer’s or dementia cannot
express their feelings; if you sense a change in appetite or
sleeping pattern has suddenly occurred without due cause,
set an appointment for a medical examination. Dehydration is
a known factor of sleeping and eating disturbances. Make
sure your loved-one is drinking plenty of water. Place a
pitcher filled with water near your loved-one at all times.
Remind them it is there frequently and check to make sure it
remains somewhat full. Too full can result in another
problem- slip and falls.
you feel your loved-one is showing signs of depression, have
him or her evaluated by their physician. Anti-depressants or
bedtime sedatives may be a productive treatment option.
Depression can also cause excessive sleeping or eating. In
which case, increase their exposure to light and reduce or
eliminate nap time or snack time.
Have Americans accepted a shift in responsibility for their own
retirement security? A new study by MetLife seems to indicate
that they have. … READ MORE
understand why employees- or just about anybody- wants
additional help.with investing (and more). Very few people of
average income can afford to lose another 50%+ in this next
recession. Problem is their employer has no idea who is best
utilized in providing solid risk education with mutual
funds. Ergo, education will help in certain areas but will
continue to be woefully inadequate in preparing for retirement
(and other goals) but few . It starts with
debt levels rose by $US21 trillion last year to $US237
trillion, the highest level on record.
the increase in global debt levels over the past five years
has occurred in emerging markets.
nominal GDP growing faster than debt in 2017, the global
debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 318%.
debt levels rose by a further $21 trillion last year (US
dollars), leaving total outstanding debt at $US237 trillion, the
highest level on record.
sectors recorded an increase in debt loading from the end of
2016, lifting by $4.5 trillion, $6.5 trillion, $4.5 trillion and
$5.5 trillion respectively for households, non-financial
corporates, governments and the financial sector.